Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 190534 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1134 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period. Westerly winds will be on the uptrend overnight throughout
the atmosphere over New Mexico, with much stronger surface winds
expected Tuesday thanks in part to a deepening lee side trough. The
strongest winds Tuesday afternoon are forecast at KGUP, KLVS and KTCC
where gusts will hit up between 35 and 40kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Westerly winds aloft are over New Mexico, signifying a drying and
eventual demise of the monsoon season. A stray storm will be possible
over the southeastern plains through early evening, but elsewhere
dry conditions are expected. Winds will increase on Tuesday,
continuing to dry out the atmosphere. Winds will relax on Wednesday,
but dry conditions will hold while temperatures stay near to slightly
above average. A deep trough of low pressure will then slowly take
aim at the western U.S. on a sluggish pace through the end of the
week. This will increase precipitation chances, particularly in the
eastern plains of New Mexico where moisture will arrive from the Gulf
of Mexico, enhancing the probability for strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow prevails over NM with a drying trend noted in surface
dewpoints and PWATs over most of the state this afternoon. The
exception is in the far eastern plains where a dryline has shaped up
with deeper boundary layer moisture holding its ground near the OK/TX
borders with eastern NM. Just enough instability/moisture is located
in these areas, possibly sufficient for a stray storm. Some 20 POPs
were introduced for this evening to account for this.

Into Tuesday, the gradient aloft tightens a bit as a deep upper low
moves into Alberta, steered by a stout jet that will round its base.
In addition, a deepening surface low (near 991mb) will be observed
over eastern CO. Deep mixing will yield breezy to windy conditions
across NM as this stronger flow is mixes surfaceward. Winds do not
appear strong enough for a wind advisory, but critical fire weather
will be a possibility Tuesday afternoon.

The surface low will be absent on Wednesday, and the flow aloft will
back slightly while decreasing in speed just a bit. Breezy
conditions will still linger on Wednesday, but speeds will be
notably less than on Tuesday. Otherwise dry conditions will persist
through the daytime hours Wednesday while temperatures hover near or
just slightly above average.

Rapid pressure falls will then take place over the Great Basin and
surrounding states into Thursday as a vast upper low deepens over
OR/ID. This will steer a return flow from the Gulf of Mexico into
eastern NM, with increases in boundary layer moisture while large
scale ascent inches toward the state. Best upward forcing and
dynamics will enter NM more toward Friday and the weekend with severe
storms possibly impacting the eastern plains of the state
repetitively through this time frame. Precipitation chances will also
be introduced into parts of the central to western zones, but this
should be secondary to the impacts that the stronger storms could
bring to the eastern plains.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Much quieter weather today with only fair weather clouds over the
eastern plains early this afternoon as well as westerly breezes
along and near the central mountain chain and western mountains.
Some spotty fair to poor humidity recoveries central and west
tonight.

Zonal flow will strengthen tonight and Tuesday as a disturbance
passes over Colorado. This will allow for strengthening ridgetop
winds tonight and across northern and central NM Tuesday when some
gusts to around 45 to 50 mph are possible. The combination of drier
minimum humidities and strong winds will lead to areas of critical
conditions Tuesday afternoon, but there are mixed signals
considering whether or not to upgrade the fire weather watch to a
warning. Forecast Haines values aren`t impressive with some areas of
5 over the northwest and northeast. Latest Land Information System
data from NASA SPoRT suggests near surface soil moisture isn`t bone
dry in the northeast and east central with the exception of a swath
across southern Torrance, De Baca and Curry counties. The northwest
(Zones 101 and 105) is drier and would appear the more likely place
to upgrade the watch to a warning but it hasn`t been cold enough for
most locales to end the growing season either. Will hold off to see
how much drying occurs in the LIS data later this afternoon and
tonight. Otherwise where will be some spotty poor humidity
recoveries Tuesday night central and east, and vent rates Tuesday
will be excellent.

A weak wind shift into the northeast Tuesday night will mix out by
Wednesday afternoon, however, it may result in only fair to poor
vent rates over the northeast on Wednesday. Winds will decrease
overall from Tuesday, and although it will be dry, minimum
humidities inch upward. High temperatures will be slightly above
average.

Extended forecast models continue to indicate an unsettled weather
pattern developing for Thursday though the upcoming weekend.. A deep
upper trough will slowly track eastward over NM through the weekend
and possibly linger through the middle of next week.  There are
differences though between the models with how quickly precipitation
may develop over the west Thursday, and whether or not a
closed/cutoff low will develop to our west. It does look windy with
some potential for dryline convective activity Friday through
Sunday, so humidities may slosh back and forth over the east.
Elsewhere, isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible.
Cooler and below average temperatures eventually invade the north
and west especially by Sunday.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for the following zones... NMZ101-103>105-107-108.

&&

$$

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