Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 221736 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA AND -TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTS AND
MOVE TO THE NE...BUT DIE QUICKLY THEREAFTER. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
NEAR KLVS...BUT NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS AT SITE AND CONFIDENCE LOW
FOR A VCTS. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. WIND
OF 10 TO 15KT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE STEADILY INCREASING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW
MEXICO TODAY WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MOVING INTO
THE STATE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE SHAPE TODAY...AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AIR WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...RISING A FEW DEGREES
INTO FRIDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN APPROACH NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT
OF STRONG WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND SOME PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
PARTS OF NM. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SEEPED BEYOND SOME CENTRAL
GAPS AND CANYONS LAST EVENING...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED A SLIGHT RISE
IN DEWPOINTS/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING
ENSUES. THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL ALSO SEE APPRECIABLE RISES
IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING
DEPICTED BY FORECAST MODELS. ALL IN ALL...THE WIND GUIDANCE HAS
RISEN SOME FOR TODAY`S WIND SPEEDS AND CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
HAS BEEN ALIGNED TO REFLECT THIS. ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A DRIER VARIETY OF STORMS NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE WEST DUE TO DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER PRESSURE FALLS WILL OVERTAKE MOST OF THE
WESTERN U.S. DUE TO THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SOME
ADVECTION OF VORTICITY LOBES COULD HELP SUSTAIN ANY EVENING
CONVECTION AND KEEP SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS WILL DRAG ACROSS NM WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. THIS SCENARIO COUPLED WITH STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATES AND DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL YIELD BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A RAPID PLUMMET IN DEWPOINTS WILL KILL ANY
SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN
FALLING A FEW DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MAKES IT EASTWARD INTO TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE THERMAL TROUGH AND
WEAK DYNAMIC COOLING WILL HAVE ALSO SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINING
EASTERN ZONES OF NM.

THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING THE FORECAST
AREA WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SEASONAL AVERAGES THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND MUCH WEAKER THAN WEDNESDAY. SOME LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL QUICKLY RE-ESTABLISH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT OF A MUCH WEAKER CALIBER...AND CONSEQUENTLY ONLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY BOTH ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES INCREASING FRIDAY.

THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC...ESPECIALLY FROM A
WIND STANDPOINT. THE GFS MODEL HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE EUROPEAN...HOWEVER IT STILL HAS SOME DIFFERENCES...INCLUDING
BEING A WINDIER SOLUTION. AND ALSO OF NOTE...THE CANADIAN MODEL
ISN`T TOO FAR FROM THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION. TRUE TO FORM...THE GFS
HAS A SLIGHT EDGE ON TIMING AND A TRACK OFFSET SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH. WIND FORECAST HAS INCREASED FOR SATURDAY...AND POPS REMAIN
SLIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORY...STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST BEFORE
DRAGGING ACROSS THE REMAINING NORTHERN ZONES INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WOULD ALSO LIKELY DIVE BELOW AVERAGE WITH H7
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -6C NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FLOW ALOFT COULD REMAIN PERTURBED WITH A STRONG MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OVER NM INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A VERY HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN BECOMES CARVED OUT WITH A SHARP RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A CUT OFF LOW IN THE EAST.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO PUSH SOME HIGHER...MID 30S...
DEWPOINTS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD WANE BETWEEN NOW AND AFTER SUNRISE. INDICATIONS ARE THE
MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW MIN RH
VALUES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH
15 PERCENT OR LESS STILL FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. WINDS INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME...AND ARE A NOTCH HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER...IN
THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE GALLUP
AREA. UPSHOT IS THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 101...105 AND 106
THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WHERE HAINES OF 5
FORECAST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS INDICATED...ALONG WITH SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH COULD SPARK ISOLATED DRY SHOWERS/STORMS. WHILE
WINDS WILL MEET CRITERIA ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN OTHER
AREAS...MIN RH NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO OUR EAST. WENT AHEAD AND CONVERTED THE
EXISTING WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALL BUT ZONES 101 AND 102 WHERE
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MORE MARGINAL. EXCELLENT VENT RATES FORECAST
OVERALL BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

RH RECOVERIES POOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST AREAS THURSDAY WILL SEE
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH HAINES BUT
WINDS LIKELY NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AND HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE CLINES CORNERS
TO LAS VEGAS TO RATON STRIP AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS LATE
IN THE DAY.

WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE FRIDAY...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS FAR WEST AND STRETCHING FROM THE CLINES CORNERS
AREA TO CLAYTON. THE NEXT BIG CRITICAL DAY COULD BE SATURDAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EAST...IF MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
BEING WINDIER INSTEAD OF WETTER. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF THOUGH. WINDS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE STRONGER THAN
THOSE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH HAINES WILL DOMINATE THE EAST.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE SUNDAY...BECOMING CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101-105-106.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-102.

&&

$$







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