Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 210008 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. ISOLD SHRA/
TSRA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU SUNSET
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. MOST OF THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET FOR AVIATION
AS WELL. THICKER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLIDE OVER THE STATE BY LATE
DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE SW HIGH TERRAIN
AND ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CALM DAY TODAY AS ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE APPEARED ON RADAR. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A CHANGE LATE TOMORROW
INTO FRIDAY AS A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE STATE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREAWIDE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR AREAS
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE SUNDAY FAVORS AREAS ACROSS THE
WEST. ANOTHER MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS SITTING OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA NEAR LOS ANGELES AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD IN THE COMING DAYS. A RELATIVELY STRONG SWLY JET OVER THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE HAS LIMITED CONVECTION YET AGAIN
TODAY AS DESCENDING AIR ON ANTICYCLONIC (SOUTHEAST) SIDE OF THE JET
COMBINES WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE-DAY THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR LOS ANGELES
MOVES EASTWARD...WEAKENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN OPEN WAVE. MOISTURE WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
STORM LOWELL WILL GET PULLED NEWD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FRIDAY.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
PWATS AND UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC LIFT INCREASE. THE MOISTURE
PLUME WILL TILT TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY...SHIFTING FAVORED LOCALES
FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WLY FLOW BETWEEN A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY AS
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. SATURDAY APPEARS AS THE DAY WITH THE LEAST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ACTIVITY SUNDAY WILL FAVOR
WESTERN AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH.

ANOTHER UP-TICK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME LIFTING NORTH INTO THE STATE AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY REMAINS QUITE LOW AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER GREATLY WITH HOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EVOLVES. ECMWF ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SWRN COLORADO WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DID BUMP UP THE
WIND FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. GIST OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME. TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DOWN
DAYS IN TERMS OF WETTING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN UPTICK DAY FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF. LESS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...A FEW WETTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN PLAINS AND CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS ZONE 109/103. OTHERWISE THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL HAVE
EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE TOPS OF THE CUMULUS BUILDUPS. RH RECOVERIES
TONIGHT WILL TREND A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AS SOME OF
THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MAKES IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS HAS ALREADY
HAPPENED ACROSS THE NW THIRD.

THE DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WEATHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN ALIGNMENT VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAYS FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
PERIOD. THIS EVOLUTION IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY PARKED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS
THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND REPLACE THE
DRIER AIR WITH MORE MOIST AIR. THIS EVOLUTION COULD OCCUR AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WOULD BE GRADUAL. SOME GARDEN VARIETY
MONSOONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SOME CELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS BUT THE
FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN WOULD BE SMALLER DUE TO LOWER HUMIDITY
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST AREAS AND LEAD
TO A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE VERSUS OBSERVED TODAY. OUTFLOW
WIND/DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS A RESULT. THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THIS POINT BUT STILL PROMOTE
SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

MOISTURE TRANSFER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND FUEL WIDER COVERAGE OF WETTING RAIN. THE STRONGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION THAT WILL FOLLOW THE PACIFIC LOW. MODELS STILL FAVOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE
GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH ONE COULD ARGUE THAT THE FAVORED AREA COULD
EXTEND FURTHER BACK TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD. THIS IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER SOME. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
TREND UP AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THIS SCENARIO.
RESIDUAL IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT
THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND
FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUMPED UP THE WIND FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS STILL SHOW A DEEPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND WASHING IT OUT AND PROGRESSING IT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE
PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE
SIMILAR. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT ENTRAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH SOME LEFT OVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN. CELLS THAT FIRE UP
SHOULD FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EITHER WAY...WETTING RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SECONDARY PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH...SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
COULD FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD FUEL A
HIGHER COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO SAY
RIGHT NOW WITH CERTAINTY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL TRENDS.

WIDESPREAD ISSUES WITH DAYTIME VENTILATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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