000
FXUS65 KABQ 171141
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO. VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 18Z TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NE NM INITIATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ISOLATED MOSTLY DRY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE DRY STORMS CAN GENERATE LOCALIZED
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...MOD TURB...VARIABLE DOWNBURSTING WINDS WHICH CAN
GENERATE BLOWING DUST AND ERRATIC SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 40KT.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013...
AT 00Z...THE ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO REMAINED
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM 12 AND EVEN 24 HRS AGO. THE KABQ
SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.63 INCH...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
JUNE. THAT SAID...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL UNDERGO SOME DRYING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AT LEAST WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR COMING
IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS SOCAL...AZ AND THE MEXICAN BAJA. ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...COMBINED WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PUSH.

TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR OVERALL TO YESTERDAY...WITH DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY BLOWING
DUST...ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OUT
EAST...BETTER LOW LAYER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWATS WILL ALLOW FOR
WETTING THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES
NORTHEAST AND MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. TUESDAY LOOKS MORE INTERESTING OUT EAST...WITH BOTH THE
LATEST NAM AND GFS SHOWING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/BACKDOOR FRONT
COMBO MAKING PROGRESS FURTHER WEST AND PROVIDING GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS
SOMEWHAT AND WESTERLIES INCREASE. THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
PLACES A GOOD CHUNK OF THE EAST IN A SLIGHT RISK. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON THE DAY 2 AT THIS POINT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE EITHER DAY. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS GOING WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE
DRY WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL INCREASE OVER THE STATE AND
PWATS WILL TAKE A NOSEDIVE AS THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF THE
PACIFIC NW MOVES INLAND AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF NM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REENTER THE FORECAST (SEE DETAILS
BELOW). MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THURSDAY AS WELL. MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND GET CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLIES...BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO MUCH OF THE AREA
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

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.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED AND THU...

A CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN BACK DOOR COOL FRONT BOUNDARY ATTEMPT TO
INVADE THE NE PLAINS THIS LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  THIS BOUNDARY PUSH TOWARDS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS LATE EVENING AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPLIED
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL TRACK INTO THE NEARBY
EASTERN PLAINS. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WEST TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EACH
AFTERNOON. A WEAK EASTERLY GAP WIND OF RATHER SHORT DURATION IS
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY WITH EAST WINDS SPEED OF 15-25 MPH IN THE
ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE AREAS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO...SANDIA AND
MANZANO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD...AS WELL AS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND NW PLATEAU. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NW US...AND A MODERATELY STRONG
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. HAINES
6 VALUES WILL BE COMMON WITH SUPERHAINES VALUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM 3 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE WEST TO LOW TEENS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS...EXCEPT FOR
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WHERE RH VALUES WILL HOVER IN THE MIDDLE
TEENS TO LOW 20S.  RH VALUES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE LOW 20S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THE LOW TO MID TEENS FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TO THE AZ STATE LINE WITH THE FAR NW REMAINING IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.  RH VALUES WILL INCREMENTALLY INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH THE UPPER 20S...EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR NW WHERE RH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TEENS.  THIS SLIGHT
MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

01

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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