Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 272341 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING
WINDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VFR CIGS WILL LOWER
THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS SHOWERS DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE WIND
GUSTS...WHICH MAY APPROACH 50KTS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
PROBABLY LONGER. TWO STORMS WILL IMPACT NM DURING THIS TIME. THE
FIRST ONE IS OVER CA AND WILL MOVE INTO AZ THURSDAY...BE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFT NE INTO CO SATURDAY. THE
SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY...DIVE SE TO NEAR
LAS VEGAS NV SATURDAY THEN TURN NE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE A
COLD FRONT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE NE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE IT MAKES GOOD PROGRESS SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD ENJOY SOME PRECIPITATION.
THE MOST QPF SHOULD BE OVER THE W AND N.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
AND MODERATE WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THEN SPREAD TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SOME DECENT
QPF IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ON THE HIGH PEAKS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE AREA WITH DECENT QPF AMOUNTS
AND SOME MORE HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY THURSDAY AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT FRIDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY STORM NUMBER
TWO WILL TAKE AIM AT NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
SATURDAY PM OVER THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH SHOWERS AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DROP S AND W ACROSS ERN NM SATURDAY AND MAY SPILL INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
EXTENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE BEST QPF...BUT THEY ALL HAVE PRETTY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND MOST FAVOR THE N AND E FROM LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING E THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND MILDER
DURING THIS TIME. YET ANOTHER STORM COULD IMPACT THE STATE NEXT
FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST/GREAT BASIN TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SANDIA...MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS
AND OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON CONVERTING THE EXISTING FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
OF THE LOCATION OF A SURFACE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

MAV GUIDANCE STILL ATTEMPTS TO BRING A HEFTY EAST WIND INTO THE
ALBUQUERQUE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...BUT BY AFTERNOON THE WIND HAS
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH. NOT SURE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
BE PULLED WESTWARD GIVEN THE FORECAST SHORT DURATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL EAST WIND...BUT IT/S ALSO SHOWN TO BE SCOURED OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST...AND FORECAST
HAINES IS 5 TO 6 OVER THE WATCH AREA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM ABOUT
5 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. OVER THE WEST AND NORTH THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND
NORTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION DECREASING. THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS EAST CENTRAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS AT THE BASE
OF THE LOW KEEP ANY MOISTURE WELL TO THE EAST.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL FALL TO 5
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. NO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SURGES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES/FRONTS WAVER IN AND OUT. POOR VENT RATES WILL BE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE EAST ON MONDAY AND MOSTLY GOOD WEST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ106>108.

&&

$$

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