Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 022125
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FOCUS WEST
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOVE STORMS SOUTHWARD. THE STRONG
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH
MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION... THE 595DM H5 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED
ACROSS NM WEDNESDAY HAS WEAKENED TO 592DM WHILE REORGANIZING WEST
INTO AZ. DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS ALSO WORKED INTO THE
AREA...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS STRONG STORMS
ARE FIRING UP. THE LATEST HRRR/5KM WRF/SPC SSEO/AND NAM12 ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS
TO ORGANIZE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE
NEARBY HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH 6PM. AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN MAY
RESULT FROM EASTERN CIBOLA AND CATRON COUNTIES EAST ACROSS SOCORRO
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALSO LOOK VERY ACTIVE WITH OVERALL LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN OF MOIST INSTABILITY. ORIGINALLY A
DOWNTICK WAS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN MODELS
TRENDED LATER INTO SUNDAY...NOW IT APPEARS THAT TREND IS PROGGED BY
MONDAY. THE MOISTURE IS HERE TO STAY AND THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE OTHERWISE...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ALL
PERIODS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHILE THE HIGH REORGANIZES SOUTH AND/OR
EAST OF NM. STORM MOTIONS THROUGH THE MULTI-DAY PERIOD WILL BE SLOW
WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES. THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY
VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN SPIKE EVEN HIGHER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE SOME WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTHWEST OF NM AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STEER A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND WILL IMPACT TYPICALLY FAVORED PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE IN PART
TO THE FRONT...BUT ALSO TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AND THE UPPER HIGH WILL
MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS.

SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT MORE SQUARELY
OVERHEAD. WITH ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH PLENTY
OF SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME CELLS MAY REMAIN STATIONARY
AND PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN NM AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ADD FORCING FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND GET THE STORMS MOVING AGAIN...GENERALLY TOWARD
THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH TUESDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHIFTING IT EAST OF NM
AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
STATE. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH BACK OVER NM WITH MONSOON MOISTURE
SEEPING NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH.  EITHER WAY WETTING STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS
TUESDAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...UPWARD TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...THEN BACK DOWN
BELOW NORMAL MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ON SCT TO NMRS TS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WET MICROBURSTS WITH ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS...SOME POSSIBLY REACHING OVER 45 KT. CELLS WILL PROPAGATE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE S...EXCEPT TOWARD THE SSE ON PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SW ACROSS THE SW MTS. CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SCT TO ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED. A GUSTY
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALREADY ENTERING THE NE PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
SWWD TODAY AND PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG E CANYON WIND IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM LATE
AFTN THROUGH EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE E PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  91  63  92 /  50  20  30  20
DULCE...........................  51  83  50  84 /  30  40  30  40
CUBA............................  53  78  52  80 /  60  50  60  40
GALLUP..........................  57  86  54  86 /  50  30  30  30
EL MORRO........................  56  83  54  83 /  60  50  40  50
GRANTS..........................  59  86  56  86 /  70  30  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  60  83  58  82 /  50  50  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  56  87  55  83 /  40  40  40  40
CHAMA...........................  49  76  48  76 /  40  50  50  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  79  60  80 /  50  40  60  50
PECOS...........................  57  75  56  77 /  60  50  60  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  73  52  74 /  50  50  50  40
RED RIVER.......................  46  63  46  65 /  70  70  70  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  65  51  68 /  70  80  70  60
TAOS............................  52  79  51  80 /  40  30  30  30
MORA............................  52  72  52  75 /  60  60  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  58  85  57  86 /  40  20  30  30
SANTA FE........................  61  78  61  79 /  60  50  60  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  83  60  84 /  60  30  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  67  85  66  86 /  70  40  60  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  87  68  88 /  60  20  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  89  66  90 /  60  20  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  68  91  68  92 /  60  20  40  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  68  89  65  90 /  60  20  40  20
RIO RANCHO......................  67  89  67  90 /  60  20  40  20
SOCORRO.........................  68  92  66  92 /  60  20  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  81  58  82 /  70  60  70  40
TIJERAS.........................  60  83  60  84 /  70  50  70  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  53  82  52  83 /  60  40  50  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  77  56  78 /  70  40  50  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  80  58  81 /  70  50  40  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  86  62  85 /  50  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  57  76  57  76 /  70  60  50  50
CAPULIN.........................  57  76  56  78 /  40  50  70  30
RATON...........................  55  79  54  82 /  40  30  40  20
SPRINGER........................  57  80  57  83 /  60  50  60  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  75  53  77 /  60  60  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  61  82  60  85 /  30  40  60  20
ROY.............................  59  79  59  80 /  60  50  60  20
CONCHAS.........................  65  86  64  87 /  40  20  50  20
SANTA ROSA......................  64  85  63  86 /  70  30  50  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  87  64  88 /  40  20  40  20
CLOVIS..........................  64  85  63  86 /  60  20  50  10
PORTALES........................  65  86  65  87 /  60  20  50  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  85  64  87 /  60  20  50  20
ROSWELL.........................  67  90  65  91 /  50  20  20  10
PICACHO.........................  61  84  61  85 /  50  40  40  20
ELK.............................  60  77  59  78 /  40  50  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$

42


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