Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 251954
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
154 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A series of disturbances continues through Tuesday with cool and
unsettled conditions persisting, including accumulating snow in
the mountains and across the northeast highlands and plains.
Tuesday will be showery, with snow across the higher terrain and a
mix of rain and graupel at most lower elevation locales. A warmup
begins Wednesday with fair weather conditions and will persist
into the weekend, with temperatures rising above normal areawide.
Albuquerque is forecast to hit 70 degrees for the first time this
calendar year on Friday, then continue with highs in the lower 70s
through the weekend. Typical dry and breezy to locally windy
spring-like conditions are forecast from Thursday through Sunday,
mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

It has been a fairly active weather day across much of eastern NM
where a strong cold front has moved south through Roswell. The front
is pretty evident on visible satellite running from just west of
Roswell up towards Clines Corners stalled along the higher terrain
and highlands. Otherwise west to northwest flow dominates
central/western New Mexico with gusty winds at Gallup and
Farmington. Water vapor imagery shows the main upper level low over
western KS with troughing extending back to the SW over much of NM.

West to northwest flow aloft will continue tonight with another
shortwave trough over UT/AZ coming into N NM tonight/Tue AM. HREF is
in pretty good agreement with synoptic models and keeps the chance
of snow for the Sangre de Cristo Mtns going tonight. Based on these
trends we decided to extend the winter storm warning/advisories
already in place to 09Z Tuesday when snows should be ending.

Tuesday is a challenging forecast with regards to precipitation.
Upper level trough will still be in place with very cold air aloft.
Looking at model sounding profiles from various CAMs...lapse rates
will be between 8-9 degrees C (CAPE roughly 200-300 J/kg) so with
any amount of lift there should be convection. Convective showers
will be short lived but if there is any organization at all into
bands then there could be brief higher amounts of precip. Precip
types in convection will likely cover the whole spectrum of snow,
sleet, graupel, and rain. Any accumulations of the frozen types will
cause travel impacts however brief. Precipitation amounts are not
expected to be much except for where showers move over some of the
same areas or there is orographic enhancement. This means the Upper
Gila Region, Sacramento Mtns, Continental Divide and perhaps the
central mountain chain could see some enhanced amounts. This is
where the forecast really breaks down with forecasting modest snow
accumulation for tomorrow due to the small scale nature of these
processes not to mention the thermodynamics at play. Snow levels
should be rising during the day but the intensity of convective
showers may overcome that aspect to produce more frozen precip than
liquid.

Given the information at hand we really need to take a look at
potential winter weather advisories for areas like the Gila Forest,
Continental Divide and Sacramento Mtns. However there just is not a
robust signal in the data to support advisories at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A swelling upper level ridge across the Desert Southwest and
Great Basin will move east toward the southern Rockies and NM on
Wednesday bringing warmer conditions, although highs are still
forecast to be around 10 degrees below normal. Warming will then
ramp up from Thursday into the weekend as the ridge moves east and
is replaced with backing and increasing westerly flow.
Temperatures will be above normal areawide by Friday, when the
Albuquerque Sunport is forecast to hit a high of 73 degrees, which
would be the first 70 degree day so far this calendar year.
Breezy to locally windy conditions will prevail from Thursday
through Sunday, with the strongest winds forecast along/east of
the central mountain chain partially due to lee side troughing.
The Albuquerque Sunport is forecast to reach highs in the
lower/mid 70s through the weekend, bringing a very spring-like
feel when combined with afternoon breezes. A potent upper level
low is forecast to approach from over SoCal Sunday night through
Monday, bringing in Pacific moisture and a round of showers across
western and north central NM. This upper air feature and a
backdoor cold front, forecast to arrive Monday night, will be
players in our forecast going through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Fairly active weather across the New Mexico airspace today with
upper level troughing over the region. There is also a cold front
over E NM that has stalled but behind it causing low ceilings with
a combination of snow/fog reducing visibility at times. These
IFR/MVFR conditions are not currently impacting any terminals but
we will be monitoring KLVS and KTCC accordingly. The rest of the
terminals are mostly VFR with gust winds. KSAF may get some
periods of snow this afternoon that could cause some temporary
reductions in visibility and ceilings. There is a decent model
signal for fog lowering visibility tonight over the northern
mountains from Taos over to Raton, Clayton and back to Las Vegas.
Tomorrow should also be a tricky forecast given steep temperature
lapse rates which will support convective showers with mixed
precip and gusty winds.

39

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1257 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions return on Wednesday for localized
areas of SE NM mainly with RH dropping below 15 percent with
borderline critical winds. Thursday critical fire weather conditions
become to set up a little more over E NM but areas of higher winds
and lowest humidity are not aligned. Friday and Saturday RH levels
in the afternoon drop into the 8-12 percent range with winds around
20 mph in most of these areas. It is not until Sunday that we see
the low RH and higher winds align for more widespread critical fire
weather conditions. Although Friday and Saturday will have
conditions supportive of rapid fire growth, Sunday looks to be the
more serious day with more widespread higher winds from C NM to E
NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  28  51  27  54 /   0  20   0   0
Dulce...........................  17  47  16  50 /  30  50   5   0
Cuba............................  23  44  21  46 /   5  40  10   0
Gallup..........................  22  47  19  52 /  10  40  20   0
El Morro........................  22  41  21  47 /  20  60  20   0
Grants..........................  23  46  22  51 /  10  40  10   0
Quemado.........................  24  42  22  47 /  20  70  20   0
Magdalena.......................  28  47  29  52 /   5  40  20   0
Datil...........................  25  42  26  47 /  10  40  10   0
Reserve.........................  22  47  20  54 /  30  60  20   0
Glenwood........................  33  50  30  59 /  40  70  10   0
Chama...........................  13  42  14  44 /  50  50  20   5
Los Alamos......................  27  43  26  48 /  10  30   0   5
Pecos...........................  22  43  24  49 /  30  30   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  27  37  25  41 /  80  30  10   5
Red River.......................  14  35  14  35 /  90  50  20  10
Angel Fire......................  11  34  11  39 /  90  40  10  10
Taos............................  17  43  17  47 /  60  20   5   0
Mora............................  17  43  20  46 /  70  30   0  10
Espanola........................  27  50  24  55 /  20  20   0   5
Santa Fe........................  25  44  25  49 /  20  30   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  26  49  24  53 /  10  30   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  32  52  32  55 /  10  40   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  32  53  31  57 /   5  30   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  32  56  29  60 /   5  30   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  32  54  31  57 /   5  30   0   0
Belen...........................  32  56  29  61 /   5  30  10   0
Bernalillo......................  31  55  31  58 /  10  30   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  30  55  27  60 /   5  40   0   0
Corrales........................  32  55  31  58 /  10  30   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  32  55  29  60 /   5  40   0   0
Placitas........................  31  50  31  54 /  10  40   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  32  54  31  57 /   5  30   0   0
Socorro.........................  36  57  35  62 /   5  30  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  28  44  29  49 /  10  40   5   0
Tijeras.........................  29  47  29  52 /  10  40   5   0
Edgewood........................  27  48  26  52 /  10  30   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  24  50  24  54 /  10  20   0   0
Clines Corners..................  22  44  24  49 /  20  10   0   0
Mountainair.....................  27  47  26  52 /  10  40  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  27  47  26  52 /  20  40  20   0
Carrizozo.......................  32  51  31  56 /  20  30  20   0
Ruidoso.........................  27  44  28  48 /  50  40  10   0
Capulin.........................  16  42  20  45 /  30  30  10  10
Raton...........................  18  46  19  50 /  50  30  10  10
Springer........................  22  49  21  53 /  60  20   5  10
Las Vegas.......................  19  44  22  49 /  60  20   0  10
Clayton.........................  20  46  26  51 /  10  10  10  10
Roy.............................  24  48  25  53 /  40  20   5  10
Conchas.........................  27  57  28  60 /  20  20   5  10
Santa Rosa......................  23  54  29  59 /  20  10   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  25  56  27  57 /  10  20  10   0
Clovis..........................  26  59  31  58 /  10  20  20   5
Portales........................  25  61  30  61 /  10  20  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  24  58  32  62 /  10  20   5   0
Roswell.........................  35  63  38  69 /  10  20   5   0
Picacho.........................  31  56  33  60 /  10  10   5   0
Elk.............................  30  54  30  57 /  20  20   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ230.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM MDT Tuesday for NMZ210-228-
229.

Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM MDT Tuesday for NMZ213>216-227.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...39


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