Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 202314 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
514 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

Clear skies are in place across northern and central New Mexico, and
VFR conditions should prevail through the next 24 hours. Breezy to
windy conditions will develop late Thursday morning and into the
afternoon hours with some fair weather cumulus clouds possibly taking
shape. Occasional gusts of 25 to 35 kt will be common Thursday
afternoon.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Recent dry and warmer than normal weather will transition to a
wetter and cooler pattern late this week into next week. Eastern New
Mexico may see more widespread rain and possibly a few severe
thunderstorms Friday through Sunday, while western areas get an
opportunity for rain Friday and Saturday, and again early next week.
Gusty southwest winds will kick up Thursday and moreso Friday across
the region. Winds are not expected to be as strong Saturday and
Sunday. A cold front is forecast to plunge into the eastern plains
Sunday night and Monday, then push westward over the Rio Grande
Valley and possibly to the Arizona border Monday night. This will
keep unsettled weather going through next Tuesday at least.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry front pushed down the eastern plains last night sooner than
anticipated and also progressed farther south before washing out.
Temperatures in the far northeast have been cooler though, about 15
degrees at KCAO compared to 24 hrs ago at 2pm. Otherwise winds have
been a little gusty central and west but not as strong as on
Tuesday. Tonight should be quiet then the weather starts a
transition towards more unsettled and fall-like.

Thursday will see southwest winds starting to ramp up, but models
suggest any precipitation will hold off until late Thursday night at
the earliest. However, left some token low pops over the Contdvd and
far southeast. High temperatures will range from 5 to 11 degrees
above average over the eastern plains. Winds strengthen even more
Friday when chances for precipitation increase, with a focus on 2
separate areas, along and near the Contdvd and along and east of the
Pecos Valley. SPC has already painted a Marginal risk area for
Friday in the plains. These areas also be the most favored for rain
Friday night.

Drier air is forecast to push into western New Mexico Saturday with
continued potential for showers and storms over the eastern third of
the state. Looks dryline-ish as moisture sloshes back westward
Saturday night once winds diminish. The west remains dry Sunday
while chances for rain continue in the east. A back door front shows
up on the northeast New Mexico threshold Sunday night/Monday then
pushes through the central mountain chain and to the Contdvd Monday
night/Tuesday, spreading precipitation back into central and western
New Mexico. The ECMWF doesn`t develop the closed low the GFS does to
our west which it tracks over the state during the middle of next
week, therefore the GFS is slower to dry us out, not until close to
the end of next week. Otherwise, a day to day cooling trend is on
tap for Friday through next Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Less wind overall today, though it`s still gusty across portions of
central and western NM this afternoon.  Fortunately winds remain
below critical criteria as humidities have plummeted below 15
percent across much of this area as well.

Southwest winds will ramp back up on Thursday as an upper level
trough dives southward across the western U.S. and a surface low
deepens over eastern CO. Breezy to windy conditions are expected
area wide. Humidities will creep up a few percent as well, which
will limit widespread critical fire weather conditions. That said,
there will still be 1 to 3 hours of critical conditions across far
northeast NM along/near the Raton Ridge, and across far NW NM in the
vicinity of the Chuska Mountains.

As the trough continues to dig on Friday, return flow will increase
and moisture will advect into NM, particularly eastern NM where
dewpoints will jump back up into the upper 50s or low 60s. This
moisture combined with the lift from the trough to the west will
allow showers and thunderstorms to develop, mainly over eastern NM,
though a stray storm or two is possible across the west. Meanwhile,
winds will remain strong, if not increase somewhat, as the jet moves
over NM. Strongest winds are expected across northeast NM on Friday
where gusts over 45 mph will be possible. Humidities will trend
upward area wide, though most notably over eastern NM.

Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist on Saturday.
Moisture will continue to move into eastern NM and a pseud-dryline
should become more apparent through the day. Again, showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the east, with less coverage
across the west. The dryline will sharpen further on Sunday as the
trough closes off into a low over Utah. So, again, more storms for
the east, but the west will dry out somewhat. Humidities may fall
below 15 percent again across western and central NM Sunday
afternoon.

A back door front will slide down the plains on Monday, and back
westward through the central mountain chain Monday night. On Monday,
the front should aide in convection across the plains. But models
diverge Monday night with regards to how far west the front will
push. The GFS is much more bullish as pushing the front westward to
the AZ border, bringing low level moisture along with it, increasing
precip chances for the middle of the week. This occurs as additional
energy slides down the back side of the trough and closes off into a
low over AZ. The ECMWF has the additional energy as a much weaker
trough, and the front doesn`t push as far westward, thus precip
chances are not as high as the GFS suggests. Stay tuned. It will
certainly be wetter for at least eastern NM Friday into next week.

Ventilation looks to be good to excellent for much of the area until
Monday when vent rates plummet for much of western and central NM.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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