Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 212119
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
319 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move northeast across New
Mexico through Friday. Some of the stronger storms may produce brief
strong wind gusts and perhaps some small hail. Temperatures will be
above normal in many areas through Friday before a strong cold front
surges through the state by late in the day. Low temperatures will
be the coldest since last spring for much of the state. Lows will
range from the 20s and 30s across the northern and western high
terrain to the 40s and 50s across the eastern plains. Temperatures
will likely stay cooler through early next week with a chance for
some showers across the eastern half of the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The remnant upper level wave from what was formerly Hurricane Paine
is shifting quickly northeast across NM this afternoon. It`s low
level center dissipated off the northern Baja and any moisture that
was associated with it has been washed out across a vast area of the
southwest CONUS. Enough forcing is present aloft to combine with
afternoon heating for a decent crop of storms around the central and
western high terrain. Activity is cruising along and has potential
to tap stronger winds aloft. Strong outflow winds and perhaps some
small hail are possible with any of the stronger storms. The latest
HRRR and SPC SSEO merges convection into an area over the San Juan
Mts and the RGV this evening. Thursday is expected to be a repeat of
today with perhaps a better focus along and west of the Cont Dvd.

Friday will be a dynamic day across NM as a potent Pacific cold
front surges southeast through the area. High temperatures will
still be quite warm ahead of the front. Veering wind profiles and
abundant moisture still in place over the region should allow for
at least a thin line of storms along the main frontal forcing. 12Z
guidance is still paltry with precip development and has actually
trended drier than previous runs. Will maintain chance POPs for now.
700mb temps fall from near +14C to around +4C behind the front.
This strong cold advection along with impressive dry air advection
will lead into the coldest night since last spring for much of the
state. Folks around Farmington will want to keep a close eye on the
min temp forecast as we are currently advertising 35F. Sheltered
areas that are typically colder may see their first freeze.

Overall Saturday appears to be a tranquil day with cool northwest
flow over the state. Max temps will be 10 to 20F colder than Friday.
The upper level trough is now shown by most of the 12Z guidance to
push slowly east away from the area while developing into a large
scale upper low over the Great Plains. This is yet another change in
the outlook so confidence remains low. Nonetheless, temps will stay
cooler through early next week with the greatest potential for any
precip over the east.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture levels surface and aloft considerably higher today than
on Tue thanks in large part to moisture shunted northeast from
the remnants of once Hurricane Paine. Enough sunshine has
materialized to generate some spotty showers and thunderstorms
across roughly the nw half of the fcst area. More isolated
activity struggling to keep going just east and ne of the
Sacramento mtns. Majority of the storms should be able to manage
wetting rainfall.

On Thu this moisture will begin to yield a bit to a drier sw flow
out ahead of a deepening trough aloft moving into the Great Basin.
Winds through a deep atmospheric layer over NM will be picking up
as the upper trough and associated Pacific cold front approach.
Lee side surface troughing across the east Thu will encourage
development of breezy to locally windy conditions most areas by
aftn. Despite some modest drying in the atmosphere Thu there will
still be a decent chance of a few showers and storms mainly to the
west of the eastern plains thanks to the dynamic forcing of the
approaching trough. The main Pacific front should push into and
through NM between late Thu night and Fri but moisture will be
less Fri than Thu so fewer wetting showers and storms are
expected, especially east of the Continental Divide. High temps
behind the front across nw and west central NM will be a few to
around 10 degrees below seasonal normals.

With passage of a pretty healthy back door front Sat night and Sun
daytime temps will be below normal pretty much all across the area.
Chances for wetting rain later in the weekend and early next week
still look to be less than what appeared would be the case a day or
two ago, though eastern areas still have a pretty good chance. a
developing closed low over to just west of the state looks a little
less likely now than was the case over 24 hours ago. In fact by mid
to late week next week daytime temps may head back well above
normal. The Canadian fcst model though is still holding to a
somewhat weaker upper low or deep trough hanging out over the state
so dry and warmer for this time period not certain yet by any means.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will remain the rule across most of the fcst area,
however the nw third of the area may still see a few instances of
relatively brief MVFR cigs in stronger TSRA that develop this aftn
into this eve. KGUP and KFMN still have a small risk of this
occurring into this eve, but generally kept their fcst above the
MVFR category. Elsewhere there will also be isold to occasionally
sct SHRA/TSRA coverage mostly from the AZ line east to the
highlands immediately to the east of the central mt chain. Some
mt obscurations likely as well, especially over the north. The
activity will diminish to far fewer in number between 03Z and 07Z,
but a few patches of MVFR conditions could redevelop late tonight
across roughly the nw third of the fcst area along with a few
instances of mt obscurations redeveloping late also.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  82  52  68 /  20  20  40  30
Dulce...........................  49  78  47  65 /  50  60  60  60
Cuba............................  51  76  48  65 /  40  40  30  50
Gallup..........................  50  80  49  66 /  20  20  30  30
El Morro........................  49  78  46  63 /  30  20  30  40
Grants..........................  52  82  48  70 /  30  30  30  30
Quemado.........................  52  80  50  72 /  20  20  20  30
Glenwood........................  59  84  56  75 /  20  20  10  30
Chama...........................  47  71  45  59 /  60  60  60  60
Los Alamos......................  55  78  53  69 /  40  40  30  40
Pecos...........................  53  78  52  72 /  60  40  40  30
Cerro/Questa....................  49  76  50  68 /  30  30  30  40
Red River.......................  45  70  43  66 /  30  30  30  40
Angel Fire......................  41  72  42  68 /  40  50  30  40
Taos............................  50  79  50  71 /  30  30  30  30
Mora............................  52  76  52  70 /  40  50  30  30
Espanola........................  58  83  57  77 /  30  20  30  30
Santa Fe........................  57  77  54  72 /  50  30  40  30
Santa Fe Airport................  56  82  54  77 /  40  20  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  61  83  59  77 /  40  30  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  86  59  80 /  40  20  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  60  87  59  82 /  40  20  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  61  87  58  81 /  40  20  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  59  88  56  83 /  40  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  61  87  58  81 /  40  20  20  30
Socorro.........................  62  89  59  85 /  30  30  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  79  54  73 /  50  30  40  30
Tijeras.........................  58  83  55  77 /  40  30  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  80  53  79 /  50  30  30  20
Clines Corners..................  54  80  52  76 /  40  30  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  57  80  56  76 /  30  30  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  61  86  60  82 /  20  20  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  54  78  54  74 /  30  30  20  30
Capulin.........................  56  81  56  77 /  20  30  10  20
Raton...........................  54  83  54  78 /  20  30  10  20
Springer........................  56  84  55  80 /  20  30  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  53  81  54  76 /  30  30  20  20
Clayton.........................  61  87  60  83 /  20  20  10  20
Roy.............................  59  83  58  79 /  20  20  10  20
Conchas.........................  66  90  64  86 /  20  20  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  62  90  61  85 /  20  20  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  65  93  63  90 /  10  10   5  20
Clovis..........................  61  88  60  87 /  10   5   5  10
Portales........................  62  88  62  87 /  10   5   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  63  88  61  87 /  10  10   5  20
Roswell.........................  62  90  62  90 /  10  10   5  10
Picacho.........................  59  84  59  83 /  10  20  10  20
Elk.............................  57  80  57  78 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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