000
FXUS65 KABQ 152056
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
256 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SUN. ACTIVE OVER THE EAST MON AND TUE. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

RATHER TAME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE SW AND SC
MOUNTAINS AND NE NM THIS PM. OVERALL LESS COVERAGE AND ENTHUSIASM
THAN ON FRI. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
LINGERING CELLS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST POPS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ONTO THE EASTERN HIGH PLAINS.

AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN ON MODELS ARRIVING IN THE SW
TONIGHT AND SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE STATE SUN. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION SUN AND HAVE BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE SCT
CATEGORY OVER THE SW AND SC HIGH TERRAIN.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL SLATED FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WITH A PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MON EVENING.
A FRESH SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE E WILL
PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN PEAKS E
TO THE TX BORDER. MEANWHILE DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE W WITH VERY
LIMITED SHOWERS AND STORMS...WHICH WOULD BE OF THE DRY VARIETY.

THE E WILL DRY OUT SOME FOR THE MID AND LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
WITH OVERALL CONVECTION LOW FROM WED TO FRI. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL CREEP N AROUND HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP
TO OUR E TO GENERATE ISOLATED STORMS AT LEAST OVER THE SE HALF OF
THE STATE BY THU AND FRI. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AND HUMIDITIES LOWER...WHILE WINDS INCREASE.
THIS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WED THROUGH
FRI OF NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. 44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS SHOULD FAVOR THE AREA ALONG AND JUST E OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN TODAY WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF NEAR SCT COVERAGE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CONTDVD. OTHERWISE...COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLD.
CELLS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE DRY
MICROBURSTS...CELLS ACROSS THE E PLAINS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS AND CENTRAL AREAS SHOULD SEE A MIXTURE OF
WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WILL ALSO RESULT IN DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS WITHIN AND
NEAR MTNS. SUNDAYS TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS ACROSS
THE N...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE AN UPTICK IN TS COVERAGE
ALONG AND S OF HWY 60 AS BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  92  55  93 /  10   5   5   5
DULCE...........................  40  85  40  87 /  10  10  10   5
CUBA............................  49  88  48  89 /  20  20  10   5
GALLUP..........................  51  87  48  89 /  10  10  10   5
EL MORRO........................  45  83  44  85 /  20  20  10   5
GRANTS..........................  51  87  50  89 /  20  20  10   5
QUEMADO.........................  54  85  52  87 /  10  10  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  53  92  54  94 /  10   5   5   0
CHAMA...........................  44  79  45  81 /  20  20  10   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  84  59  86 /  20  20  10  10
PECOS...........................  57  84  57  84 /  20  20  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  81  49  81 /  20  20  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  42  74  43  73 /  30  30  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  36  78  36  77 /  20  20  20  30
TAOS............................  47  86  46  86 /  20  10  10  10
MORA............................  52  81  52  81 /  20  30  20  30
ESPANOLA........................  57  89  57  89 /  10   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  59  86  58  86 /  20  10  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  90  57  90 /  20  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  65  91  65  92 /  10  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  92  66  93 /  10  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  94  63  95 /  10  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  65  94  63  94 /  10  10  10   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  94  61  95 /  10  10  10   5
RIO RANCHO......................  61  94  62  94 /  10  10  10   5
SOCORRO.........................  65  97  66  97 /  10  10  10   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  89  57  90 /  20  20  10  20
TIJERAS.........................  60  91  60  92 /  20  20  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  53  89  55  89 /  20  20  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  88  57  87 /  30  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  61  89  61  89 /  20  20  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  92  63  92 /  20  10  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  60  83  61  83 /  30  30  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  55  84  54  80 /  20  30  10  30
RATON...........................  53  89  52  85 /  20  20  10  30
SPRINGER........................  54  90  52  86 /  20  20  10  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  86  54  84 /  20  20  10  30
CLAYTON.........................  62  93  60  86 /  20  20  20  20
ROY.............................  59  90  59  86 /  20  20  10  20
CONCHAS.........................  64  95  63  90 /  20  20  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  64  94  64  91 /  20  20  10  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  99  66  93 /  20  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  63  94  65  90 /  10  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  64  95  66  91 /  10  20  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  96  66  93 /  10  20  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  67  99  69  97 /  10  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  63  92  64  91 /  20  20  10  20
ELK.............................  60  87  62  87 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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