Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 191758 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR AVIATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NM IS SLIDING NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
SEVERAL GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE NOT EVEN RESOLVING THE CURRENT WEATHER
VERY WELL...AND MANY IMPORTANT MID AND UPPER FEATURES ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT...SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF RAINFALL AND LOW CLOUDS IS
ON THE LOW-MODERATE END. TIMED TAF IMPACTS FROM CURRENT TRENDS AT
KGUP/KAEG/KABQ/KROW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME ACTIVITY WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL. A BACK-DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ALSO PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM
THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS. THE AREA
AROUND KROW MAY SEE THE LONGEST DURATION IMPACTS WITH RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS ALL NIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES/IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY FOR MANY AREAS.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...251 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SUNDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST ALL OF NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE HEART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH SHOWER
COVERAGE PEAKING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE WEST DRIES
OUT...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FOCUS ON THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT...IN TIME FOR A DRY RETURN OF WARM
SUNSHINE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEST COAST TROUGH CLOSING OFF FOR NOW...WITH CLOSED
LOW CENTERING UP ON NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
SONORA...AND EXTENDING DIFFLUENT REGION INTO EASTERN ARIZONA AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. SURFACE COLD FRONTAL REMAINS LINGER OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH WEAK TROUGH PUNCTUATING AN OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE DOME EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA BLACK HILLS TO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. PATTERN WILL SHIFT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
INTO THE WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH DECREASED ACTIVITY IN THE EAST.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH FEATURE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT ISSUES REDUCING CONFIDENCE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS SEEM TO COME BACK TOGETHER ON TUESDAY IN HANDLING
NEXT INBOUND WEST COAST TROUGH. HAPPY START MOVES CLOSED LOW OVER
WESTERN SONORA TO ROUGHLY THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL ON MONDAY IN
HIGHLY WEAKENED CONDITION...AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. NEXT INBOUND TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS
CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND SHEAR ITS BASE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY ACROSS
MIDWEEK...AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON
THURSDAY. MISSHAPEN RIDGE CORE BUILDING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL
EXPAND NORTHEAST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING TROUGH...WITH RIDGE CORE
SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY. MODELS START DISAGREEING ON
UPSTREAM PATTERN EVOLUTION...WITH DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION DEEPENING
TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY...WHILE EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF KEEP THE SYSTEM IN
CIRCULATION ABOUT CLOSED LOW WELL OFF THE ROGUE RIVER ESTUARY OF
SOUTHWEST OREGON...AND TILT THE FEATURE POSITIVE TO KEEP DYNAMICS
AWAY FROM NEW MEXICO AND ALLOW FULL EXPRESSION OF RIDGE OVER THE
STATE. MODELS COME RIGHT BACK TO THE SAME SHEET OF MUSIC EARLY
TUESDAY...AS FASTER EASTBOUND TROUGH PUSH FROM ECMWF CATCHES UP
WITH SLOWER GFS SOLUTION AND BOTH MODELS PUT A TROUGH BASE THROUGH
NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH PERIOD OF DISCREPANCY
FLANKED BY AGREEMENT BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER...WILL SIMPLY SPLIT THE
LATE WEEKEND DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL RUNS TO
COME FOR BETTER AGREEMENT.

FOR TODAY...FOG COVERAGE OVER THE EAST ERODING THROUGH THE MORNING
AS SHOWER COVERAGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES...AND THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IN PLAY AROUND ARRIVING SYSTEM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RUN A
LITTLE HIGHER TODAY THAN WERE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL
SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF WESTERN TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE EAST
ENJOYS A REBOUND TO BRING MOST ALL OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF MID OCTOBER NORMALS.
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH SOME LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE IN CATRON COUNTY IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST SONORA.

FOR MONDAY...CLOSED LOW IN THE PROCESS OF ABANDONMENT OVER THE NEW
MEXICO BOOT HEEL...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
COLORADO. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PICK UP SOLID SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MODEST IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES OVER SUNDAY. SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD...WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CATRON...SOCORRO...AND LINCOLN
COUNTY...AND SOME SUMMIT SNOWS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

FOR TUESDAY...ABANDON LOW VANISHES FROM THE MAP AS IT BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT INBOUND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AMPLIFYING ACROSS NEW MEXICO TUESDAY
NIGHT. PATTERN WILL MAKE TUESDAY THE DAY FOR MOST WIDESPREAD
SHOWER COVERAGE WITH WETTING RAIN ON TAP FOR MOST ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SOMEWHAT REDUCED IN THE EXTREME EAST. LITTLE
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...AS SURFACE WINDS PICK UP MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AND SOUTH BREEZES BREAK OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...TROUGH BASE WILL SHEAR EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...SHIFTING SHOWER COVERAGE MORE TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND
EAST...AS THE WEST BEGINS TO DRY OUT UNDER CLEARING SKIES. ANOTHER
GOOD CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS CENTRAL AND EAST. WINDS WILL VEER
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...TO SET UP A LITTLE COOLER NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SHOWERS TAPER OFF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STEADY WARMING AND DRYING
TREND AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC AND
CENTERS SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RUN 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH 3 TO 8 DEGREE WARM
DEPARTURES ELSEWHERE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY DAYTIME SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY EVENING TO
LEAVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE CLEAR. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS ALL THREE DAYS.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE NEXT WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG
ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH ENOUGH LIFT...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER/NEAR FAR SRN AZ WILL KEEP VENTILATION RATES IN
THE POOR RANGE OVER CENTRAL NM TODAY WITH FAIR TO GOOD VALUES
ELSEWHERE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
HIGHERS VENTILATION RATES BETWEEN FAIR-GOOD FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF
LOCATIONS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING DOWN SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BY THURSDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW AND THE DRIER AIR OVERTAKES ALL OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MAINLY POOR
VENTILATION RATES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH IMPROVING VENT RATES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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