Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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320
FXUS65 KABQ 261152
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
552 AM MDT Fri May 26 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Winds will restrengthen today as an upper level trough passing north
of NM continues to steer the subtropical jet stream over the state.
Southwest wind gusts from 25 to 35 kt will be common, with some
higher gusts possible along and just east of the central mountain
chain. Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected through tonight.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MDT Fri May 26 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Changes are on the way. The warm and dry conditions will transition
to a cooler and unsettled period of active weather, starting over
the holiday weekend and continuing in earnest for much of next week.
But back to today, which will be dry and warm again with lots of
sunshine. A back door cold front currently moving south in the
northeast will slow this morning then turn back north this afternoon.
Saturday will be dry with the exception of the northeast, where the
above mentioned cold front will be lurking. Showers and thunderstorms
may fire along the front in the afternoon. The front will then race
south and west Saturday night, squeezing into the Rio Grande Valley
early Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage, mainly over the north while temperatures will be cooler,
especially in the east. Memorial Day will see a big increase in
shower and thunderstorm coverage as return flow moisture settles in.
Widespread precipitation will continue through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak trough entering northwest AZ this morning will cross NM today
but have little impact. A back door cold front has slipped south into
the far northeast early this morning but should slow this morning and
wash out this afternoon. More sunshine is expected today compared to
Thursday, while winds will be a little less, generally under advisory
levels. It will be another dry day with highs near to above normal.

Tonight will be quiet with mainly clear skies and near normal lows.
Some gusty winds will persist over the western and central mountain
tops.

A sharper short wave trough will approach Saturday and cross NM
Sunday. A potent back door cold front will also plunge into the
northeast late Saturday and race south and west, spilling into the
Rio Grande Valley early Sunday morning. A big increase in moisture
will follow behind the front. This will spark some shower and
thunderstorm activity in the northeast Saturday afternoon and
evening. Sunday into Sunday night will produce more coverage of
showers and storms, favoring central and western areas, especially
over the mountains. Highs will be cooler Saturday and again Sunday.

A trough will approach the west coast Monday, slowly move onshore
Tuesday, then crawl east Wednesday and Thursday, finally crossing NM
Friday, at least according to the GFS. Other models are slower in
bringing the trough through NM, if at all. The models are in good
agreement though that Tuesday through Thursday will be very active
with widespread showers and thunderstorms and below normal high
temperatures. So, an unsettled week of weather to close out May and
begin June.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS AGAIN TODAY...

Critical fire weather conditions will return today, as an upper
level trough crossing the central and northern Rockies continues to
steer the subtropical jet stream over New Mexico. Winds aloft will
weaken some, but there will be more sunshine, so surface winds today
may be on par with those observed yesterday. Widespread single digit
humidities are again expected. Although all zones will experience at
least some critical fire weather conditions this afternoon, the
longest duration and most widespread critical conditions are again
forecast across central and southern areas where winds will
generally be stronger and soil moisture will generally be very low.
Humidity recoveries will improve some tonight, while remaining poor
across much of central and southern parts of the forecast area.

Cooler air will pour into the area from the northwest and north
Saturday afternoon and night, and winds will weaken as the upper
level trough begins to shift east of the Rockies, easing the fire
weather concern. North winds will become breezy to windy over the
eastern plains Saturday night as a back door cold front plunges
southward. The front will bring better moisture with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms across the northern mountains and
northeast plains Saturday afternoon and night. The back door cold
front will then push through gaps in the central mountain chain and
into western NM Saturday night and Sunday morning, allowing moisture
to improve there as well. Showers and storms will favor central and
western parts of the forecast area Sunday afternoon and especially
Sunday night. Wetting foot prints will probably be pretty small and
mostly favor the northern mountains this weekend. Some storms south
of the northern mountains will probably produce more wind than rain.
After widespread Haines of 6 today and Saturday, the cooler and
moister airmass ushered in by the back door cold front will cause
Haines values to trend downward across central and especially
eastern areas Sunday.

Haines will continue to moderate areawide early in the coming work
week as an upper level low pressure system slowly approaches the
upper Baja Peninsula from the west drawing what now looks to be a
rich return flow of low level moisture over New Mexico from the
southeast. Broad coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected
each afternoon and evening Monday through Wednesday, with the best
chance for wetting precip over the mountains, adjacent high plains,
and possibly even the central valley. Models aren`t agreeing very
well on the track or timing yet, but they do suggest the Baja low
will move into the Desert Southwest during the latter half of the
week.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
for the following zones... NMZ105>109.

&&

$$



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