000
FXUS65 KABQ 150937
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
337 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SLOPPY BROAD TROUGH ALOFT MOVING BROADLY OUT OF NEW
MEXICO INTO TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS RIDGE
BUILDS NORTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE CHARTS PAINTING BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN ADVANCE OF QUASI STATIONARY FRONT LYING FROM
SOUTHERN NEVADA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO AND HOOKING UP TO SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WEAK
COMPANION TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER OF NEW MEXICO.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY. ACCEPTED CONSENSUS
BUILDS RIDGE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY AND
SOME SEMBLANCE OF THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AS
CLOSED LOW COILS OFF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON STATE COASTLINE.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS BASIC FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS WEATHER SYSTEM CORE MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND REMAINS WELL NORTH...ENDING UP OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...BROAD RIDGE WILL SPAN THE SOUTHERN U.S. FROM SEA TO
SHINING SEA...AS FIRST HINTS OF A WEST COAST TROUGH LIE OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS TROUGH WILL GAIN SOME DEFINITION BY
MONDAY MORNING AS NEW MEXICO REMAINS UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW.

FOR TODAY...RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO AS STATE
REMAINS COVERED BY BROAD SURFACE TROUGH. CONVECTION WILL RUN IN
RECYCLE MODE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DOWN TICK IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AS DRYER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATERS FALLING
BACK TOWARD A HALF INCH...WITH MOISTURE REMAINING A LITTLE HIGHER
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD...STORM INTENSITY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY REDUCED OVER
FRIDAYS EXPERIENCE. SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR INITIATION WITH LITTLE STEERING FLOW IN PLAY UNDER THE LOW
FLOW RIDGE ALOFT. TEMPERATURES RUNNING NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FOR MID JUNE. MODEST WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY BUT STILL MODEST OVER THE EAST.

FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE REMAINING OVER NEW MEXICO AS SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD TO LIE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TO THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND. ACTION WILL SHIFT SHOWER FOCUS
OUT OF THE WEST AND INTO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
DOWN TICK IN INTENSITY IN A RECYCLING CONVECTIVE MODE. WETTING
RAINS...IF ANY...WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS REMAINING MODEST BUT INCREASED OVER
SATURDAY SPEEDS AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS...WITH WESTERLIES
DOMINATING WEST AND CENTRAL BACKING TO SOUTHERLY OVER THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES REMAINING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR MONDAY...RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE AS WEAK COOL PUSH INVADES
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COOLING IN THE
EAST WILL DROP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BACK TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL...AND REMAINING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST.
FRONT WILL COMPLETE REFOCUS OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST...WITH UP SLOPE
EASTERLY FLOW AGAINST THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ENHANCING STORM COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH
SPOTS...WITH STORMS MOVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS FIRING WHERE MOISTURE IS BEST
WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME WETTING RAINS OVER THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST...WHILE THE WEST WILL REMAIN DRY. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL RUN BREEZY OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE COOL PUSH SINKS SOUTHWARD TO INTERSTATE 40 BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND BUMPS UP AGAINST CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GAP FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ACCELERATE WIND SPEEDS
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPING SPEEDS
LOCALLY BREEZY FOR NOW AND ANY WINDY CONDITIONS LOCALIZED THIS
ROUND.

FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING PERCEPTIBLY EASTWARD TO LINE UP
WITH THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE STATE...AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST
AND SOUTHWEST UNDER INFLUENCE OF WEATHER SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOVING ONSHORE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN AN EASTERN SHOW...WITH WETTING
RAINS MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO THE TEXAS LINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WASHED OUT COOL FRONT AND RETURN TO BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OVER NEW
MEXICO WILL IMPART BROAD SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS...WITH SOME BREEZES DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. A STEADY STORY ON TEMPERATURES...REMAINING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST WILL ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO AS WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
U.S. MAKES EASTWARD TREK TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
SURFACE RESPONSE WILL DEEPEN TROUGH FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO TO EL PASO ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THIS BASIC FEATURE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. CONVECTION
WILL DROP BACK TO SPOTTY AND ISOLATED EACH AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THIS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SUMMITS AND UPPER SLOPES. BEST MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE AND MAY PROVIDE SOME CHANCE FOR
LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS EACH AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY CONTINUING EACH AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY...STRONGEST OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. DEPENDING ON FUELS STATUS...THIS MAY RETURN
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED AND THU WITH DEEPER
PENETRATION OF DRIER AIR INTO NM...

WHILE TODAY MAY ACTUALLY BRING SOMEWHAT OF AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE STATE...MOSTLY DRY
VARIETY...COMPARED TO FRI...THE EAST THIRD OF NM MAY WELL SEE A BIT
OF A DOWN TREND IN STORM COVERAGE. AFTN HUMIDITIES LOOK TO TREND
SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY LOWER TODAY ACROSS MOST OF EAST HALF OF NM
BUT ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOST OF WEST THIRD. A LITTLE MORE OF A
PCPN DROP OFF EXPECTED SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD A
BIT MORE OVER AND SOUTH OF NM. MINIMALLY TO MODERATELY WARMER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS TOO...THOUGH WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTN READINGS MAY RESULT TODAY. WINDS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH CRITICAL VALUES AT LEAST TODAY INTO MONDAY.

COMPUTER FCST MODELS STILL DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HOW FAR A
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL INFILTRATE INTO THE STATE...WITH NAM BEING THE
LEAST AGGRESSIVE AND THE ECMWF THE MOST SO. THE CANADIAN AND GFS
FALL IN BETWEEN THE FIRST TWO. THIS MAKES FOR A MORE CHALLENGING
FCST THAN USUAL FOR THIS SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT...ALL ELSE
BEING EQUAL...THE NAM IS MUCH MORE OFTEN NOT THE MOST ACCOMMODATING
FOR BACK DOOR FRONT PROGRESSION. ENOUGH MOISTURE RECHARGE BEHIND THE
FRONT TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
BEHIND IT EARLY WEEK. FRONT MAY MAKE IT WEAKLY TO MODERATELY THROUGH
GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY MON
NIGHT...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALL THE MODELS TO
HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO MORE CONFIDENTLY PICK A WINNER. BELIEVE
CURRENTLY IN SOMETHING LIKE THE GFS PROGRESSION WITH THE
FRONT...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT NOD TOWARD THE ECMWF...BUT ONLY TIME
WILL TELL IN SORTING OUT THE PROPER FRONTAL PROGRESSION. RIGHT NOW
10 TO 25 MPH EAST WIND BELOW CANYONS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MON
NIGHT SEEMS FAIRLY REASONABLE POSITION TO TAKE. BUT BE ALERT TO
TIMING CHANGES WITH THIS FRONT.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS SOME OVER NEW MEXICO.
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
BOTH AFTERNOONS. SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL INCREASE JUST E OF NE
CORNER OF STATE HELPING DOWN SLOPE FLOW TO PICK UP. IN ADDITION TO
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS...CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD WED AND ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS THU. WIDESPREAD HAINES 6 VALUES WILL EXACERBATE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM A FEW TO
NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD RECUR AS LATE AS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY
PASSES EASTWARD ALONG THE US AND CANADIAN BORDER.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR STRATUS DECK FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE NM EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND WILL IMPACT KROW...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT KTCC AND
KLVS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LESS COVERAGE. MVFR VSBYS/CIGS LIKELY IN AND NEAR
SATURDAY`S SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  91  57  92  55 /   5  10   5   5
DULCE...........................  86  42  85  41 /  10  10  10  10
CUBA............................  88  51  87  49 /  10  20  20  10
GALLUP..........................  88  51  87  49 /  10  10   5  10
EL MORRO........................  83  45  83  45 /  10  20  20  10
GRANTS..........................  87  52  87  51 /  10  20  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  85  55  85  53 /  10  10  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  92  53  92  54 /  10   5   5   5
CHAMA...........................  80  45  79  46 /  10  20  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  84  63  84  61 /  20  20  20  10
PECOS...........................  83  60  83  58 /  20  20  10  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  81  53  80  50 /  20  20  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  74  44  74  45 /  30  30  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  38  78  37 /  30  20  20  20
TAOS............................  86  50  86  48 /  10  20  10  10
MORA............................  80  54  81  53 /  20  20  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  89  59  89  58 /   5  10   5  10
SANTA FE........................  85  62  85  60 /  20  20  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  90  60  89  59 /  10  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  91  67  91  68 /  10  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  92  69  92  67 /  10  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  94  67  94  65 /  10  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  67  94  65 /  10  10   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  94  66  94  63 /  10  10   5  10
RIO RANCHO......................  94  66  94  64 /  10  10   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  97  66  97  67 /  10  10   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  89  59  89  59 /  20  20  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  90  62  91  61 /  10  20  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  88  57  89  57 /  20  20  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  58  87  58 /  30  30  20  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  62  89  62 /  20  20  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  63  92  64 /  10  10  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  81  60  83  61 /  30  20  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  84  58  84  55 /  20  20  20  10
RATON...........................  88  55  88  53 /  20  20  20  10
SPRINGER........................  88  56  89  53 /  10  20  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  84  57  86  55 /  20  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  91  64  93  61 /  10  20  20  20
ROY.............................  87  62  90  60 /  20  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  93  66  96  64 /  10  20  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  93  66  95  65 /  10  20  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  96  68 100  67 /  10  20  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  91  65  94  65 /  10  10  20  20
PORTALES........................  92  66  95  66 /  10  10  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  93  67  96  67 /  10  10  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  95  69  99  70 /  10  10  20  20
PICACHO.........................  90  64  92  65 /  20  20  20  10
ELK.............................  84  61  87  63 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY