Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 282116
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE OVER NEW MEXICO AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST OVER THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL
SURGE WEST THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
IN THE FORM OF GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS
WIDESPREAD STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO AT
LEAST THURSDAY. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER STEEP
TERRAIN...WILDFIRE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE SET UP FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A POTENT BACK DOOR FRONT IS OOZING SW OVER
EASTERN NM AND ACTING AS FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE AREA FROM LINCOLN COUNTY
NORTHEAST TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING...AND FORCE THE FRONT WEST ONTO THE EAST SLOPES THIS
EVENING THEN THRU THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY THE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT ARE THE LOWEST OBSERVED IN QUITE
SOME TIME OVER NORTHEAST NM. THIS IS TEMPORARY UNTIL CONVECTION
MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

WPC INDICATES EXCESSIVE PRECIP POTENTIAL ONCE THE FRONT MAKES IT
WEST THRU THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ONTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR NOW TO SEE IF OVERNIGHT SHIFT GETS A HOPEFUL CONFIDENCE BOOST
FROM LATEST GUIDANCE. THE NASA SPORT LIS SOIL MOISTURE SHOWS THE
MOST FAVORABLE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE...THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. THIS DOES COINCIDE WITH WHERE POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

STEERING FLOW IS ACTUALLY SLOWER BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN THE
UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE MORE TIME TO RIPEN
SOILS FOR FLASH FLOODING. TEMPS TREND BACK UP OVER THE WEEKEND
HOWEVER ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH ABOVE NORMAL PWATS REMAIN IN PLACE.
THIS PATTERN IS RIGHT ON PAR WITH WHAT IS TYPICALLY EXPECTED FOR
THE TRANSITION PERIOD FROM LATE JULY INTO EARLY AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK AND WETTER DUE TO A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
WESTWARD TO THE AZ BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL UNDERCUT A
RICH STREAM OF MONSOON MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE N
OR NE...BUT A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE CLOSER
TO THE AREA CAUSING STORM MOTIONS TO BECOME MORE RANDOM AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OVER WESTERN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD REACH ITS HIGHEST
VALUES OF THE WEEK...WHEN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REACH OVER
1.2 INCHES. THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE TOWARD NM FROM THE EAST RESULTING IN SLOW STORM MOTIONS.

THE 500 MB HIGH WILL FINALLY CENTER OVER THE STATE THURSDAY...THEN
IT MAY WOBBLE AROUND NM AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER...THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE STATE KEEPING DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST WITH ADDITIONAL WETTING PRECIPITATION
LIKELY OVER NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN REBOUND GRADUALLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MANY
EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL REACH NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TS WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN MTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THE NE PLAINS. SCT TO ISOLD
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS E CENTRAL AND SE AREAS. A GUSTY BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE PLAINS TODAY WITH A
PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT NOTED IN TAFS REACHING ALL THE WAY TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND SUNSET. THERE IS A RISK AN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KT AT THE
ABQ SUNPORT IF TS OUTFLOWS CAN SPEED UP THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A STRONGER GAP WIND THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON. TS
ACROSS E AND S AREAS WILL TEND TO PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT VIRGA SHOWERS W OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT IN DRY
MICROBURSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC AND LOCALIZED SURFACE
WIND GUSTS REACHING OVER 45 KT MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING E OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  60  89  60  86 /   5  10  20  20
DULCE...........................  51  80  53  77 /  10  40  30  40
CUBA............................  53  76  52  72 /  10  70  70  60
GALLUP..........................  57  85  54  81 /   5  30  50  40
EL MORRO........................  54  76  52  75 /  10  70  50  50
GRANTS..........................  57  78  55  77 /  10  60  60  50
QUEMADO.........................  57  79  56  77 /  10  70  40  60
GLENWOOD........................  58  88  58  82 /  30  50  30  30
CHAMA...........................  49  73  49  70 /  10  60  50  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  77  56  73 /  30  70  70  60
PECOS...........................  57  73  55  72 /  50  70  70  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  72  53  71 /  30  70  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  47  62  46  60 /  40  80  50  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  63  50  63 /  40  90  50  70
TAOS............................  53  75  52  73 /  20  60  40  40
MORA............................  53  70  53  69 /  60  90  60  70
ESPANOLA........................  59  81  57  78 /  20  30  50  40
SANTA FE........................  61  76  58  74 /  40  60  70  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  80  57  77 /  30  60  70  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  82  61  80 /  30  60  70  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  84  64  82 /  30  50  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  86  63  84 /  30  40  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  67  86  63  85 /  30  40  60  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  66  85  63  84 /  30  50  70  40
RIO RANCHO......................  67  85  62  83 /  30  40  60  50
SOCORRO.........................  67  90  65  89 /  30  40  60  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  78  57  77 /  40  70  70  60
TIJERAS.........................  60  81  58  79 /  30  60  80  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  80  55  79 /  30  60  60  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  75  56  76 /  50  70  60  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  82  57  80 /  30  60  40  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  87  62  86 /  30  60  60  20
RUIDOSO.........................  59  77  58  77 /  50  50  50  20
CAPULIN.........................  57  69  56  74 /  50  80  40  50
RATON...........................  56  73  57  76 /  40  80  40  40
SPRINGER........................  57  75  58  76 /  50  70  40  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  73  54  74 /  50  80  60  50
CLAYTON.........................  62  77  62  83 /  60  60  40  30
ROY.............................  60  76  59  78 /  60  70  50  40
CONCHAS.........................  66  83  65  87 /  50  60  50  20
SANTA ROSA......................  66  85  65  88 /  60  60  50  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  84  65  89 /  40  50  50  20
CLOVIS..........................  65  86  64  88 /  30  20  30  10
PORTALES........................  68  88  66  90 /  30  20  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  87  67  89 /  30  30  30  10
ROSWELL.........................  70  94  68  92 /  20  20  10  10
PICACHO.........................  62  88  62  88 /  30  40  30  20
ELK.............................  60  82  60  81 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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