Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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667
FXUS65 KABQ 260938
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
330 AM MDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure circulation over northwest Old Mexico to drift westward
today, dragging clouds and moisture with it. At least a few showers
or thunderstorms are currently expected across roughly the south
quarter of the state Monday, across the southwest third to half of
the state Tuesday and roughly the western half Wednesday through
Thursday as the low and it`s associated moisture eject northward
over Arizona and the Four Corners. Highs will warm closer to average
by the end of the week, and drier and breezy conditions could
develop during the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low circulation over northwest Old Mexico to drift westward
through early Tuesday, then lift northward into AZ and over the Four
Corners Tuesday through Wednesday. With the low position farther
south and west, pops were trimmed a bit for today and tonight.
Focus will shift to the southwest third to half tonight, then mainly
areas along and west of the Contdvd Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Wednesday into Thursday looks as if it could be the wettest period,
relatively speaking, for the west and central as the remnants of the
low and it`s moisture pass over the region. Thereafter a drying
trend with some afternoon breezes could develop, although the ECMWF
appears a bit wetter than the GFS for Friday.

High temperatures remain near to below average today into Tuesday,
then warm to near or above average for the rest of the week. That
said, highs do cool a bit in the east Thursday, as the western
extent of an area of sfc high pressure impacting the central plains
states, spreads into portions of the eastern plains.

Next week could be active, although not necessarily wet, as as
series of systems track through the northern and central Rockies in
west to northwest flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The upper level low has shifted quickly toward the Baja over the
last 12 hours or so. Dry air has overspread the northern half of NM,
and though drier conditions exist further south, there remains a
chance of showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the west
central highlands, this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, high
temperatures will remain below normal across all but the far north,
where temps will be near normal. Daytime humidities will generally
be between 20 and 30 percent. Ventilation will be good to excellent
near and south of I-40, while poor ventilation will be the rule
across the north.

The upper level low is expected to slowly weaken as it shifts north
over western AZ Tuesday and Wednesday. As this occurs, some moisture
will be pulled northward into western NM. This will increase
thunderstorms chances west of the Rio Grande Valley each aftn/eve,
but other areas will remain dry. Temperatures will slowly increase
each day, and most areas will be at or above normal on Wednesday.
Ventilation will be poor for all but western NM on Tuesday,
improving on Wednesday for all but portions of the east central
plains.

Moisture values should continue to increase on Thursday. Though the
upper level low will have dampened out to a very weak trough by this
point, it should be lifting northeast near or just northwest of the
Four Corners area, perhaps providing just enough lift for a few more
storms to develop over NM, particularly the high terrain. Spotty
wetting rains are likely. Storm chances will continue on Friday,
though somewhat less widespread than Thursday. Drier air then looks
to move in next weekend.  Ventilation rates do not look to be a
concern for most areas Thursday through the weekend.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
The 06Z TAF package has only minor adjustments (mainly in winds)
from the 00Z issuance. VFR conditions are expected at all
locations. Otherwise, gusty (15-20kt) conditions will develop at
most TAF sites in the 17-20Z time frame but should diminish by
00Z. A mid level cloud deck is expected to persist at KROW.

54/Fontenot

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  44  76  48 /   0   0   5   5
Dulce...........................  74  35  75  37 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  69  39  71  43 /   0   0   5   5
Gallup..........................  73  37  74  40 /  10  20  20  20
El Morro........................  67  35  70  39 /  20  30  20  20
Grants..........................  70  37  72  42 /  10  20  20  20
Quemado.........................  69  40  72  45 /  30  20  40  30
Glenwood........................  73  48  74  50 /  30  20  30  30
Chama...........................  67  33  70  36 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  68  44  71  47 /   0   0   5   5
Pecos...........................  65  41  70  46 /   0   5   5   5
Cerro/Questa....................  70  34  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  63  28  65  30 /   0   0   5   0
Angel Fire......................  65  28  68  27 /   0   0   5   0
Taos............................  72  35  74  37 /   0   0   5   0
Mora............................  65  37  70  41 /   0   5   5   0
Espanola........................  73  39  76  41 /   0   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  69  39  72  42 /   0   5   5   5
Santa Fe Airport................  71  42  75  44 /   0   5   5   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  71  46  73  50 /   5  10  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  74  50  76  53 /   5  10  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  75  45  77  48 /   5  10   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  75  46  77  49 /   5  10  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  74  47  78  50 /   5  20   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  74  48  76  51 /   5   5  10   5
Socorro.........................  75  49  76  51 /  20  20  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  67  42  69  48 /   5  20  10   5
Tijeras.........................  69  44  71  49 /   5  20  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  71  36  74  38 /   5  10  10   5
Clines Corners..................  66  41  70  43 /   5  10  10   5
Gran Quivira....................  68  42  71  45 /  10  30  10   5
Carrizozo.......................  67  46  72  48 /  30  30  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  60  42  64  45 /  30  30  20  10
Capulin.........................  69  38  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  73  39  79  40 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  72  38  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  68  39  72  41 /   0   5   5   0
Clayton.........................  73  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  70  45  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  71  45  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  72  45  78  49 /   5   0   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  76  46  81  50 /   5   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  69  46  76  48 /   5   5   5   0
Portales........................  70  47  77  49 /   5  10   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  70  49  76  50 /   5   5   5   0
Roswell.........................  70  50  76  51 /  20  20  10   5
Picacho.........................  61  47  69  49 /  30  30  10  10
Elk.............................  57  44  66  48 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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