Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 291630 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1030 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO TRIM 1ST PERIOD POPS A BIT...EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE MODERATE
RAIN AND FLOODING IS ONGOING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
POPPING IS AN INDICATION OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND RICH LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE (KABQ SURFACE DEWPOINT HIT 63 EARLIER THIS
MORNING). ALSO TWEAKED TODAY`S MAX TEMPS UP 2-3 DEGREES WEST AND
DOWN 2-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE RAIN COOLING AND CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...527 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EC NM BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
NOON. HEAVIEST CORES AND LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTION EXPECTED AS STORMS
BUILD ENE. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THESE STORMS
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. LOCALIZED LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN RAIN IMPACTED AREAS...BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY REMAINS FUZZY...BUT CONFIDENCE
GROWING FOR A LESS ACTIVE EVENT DUE TO THE COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER EAST AND DRIER AIR OUT WEST. LATEST HIGH
RES MODELS FAVOR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE LOW ANY TERMINAL SITE WILL
BE IMPACTED...THOUGH CURRENT THINKING PEGS KLVS...KSAF...AND KGUP
HAVING BEST CHANCES. AFTN TSTMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET AND END BY MIDNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS
HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /-73C/ NOTED NEAR
SANTA ROSA COMPLEX...AS WELL AS NEAR RUIDOSO. THE HRRR AND NAM12
MODELS DEPICT THESE STORMS CONGEALING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AND PRODUCING LARGE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN. A NEW FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RECENT BURN SCARS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM AND GENERALLY LOWER STORM COVERAGE...SO LOWERED POPS
OVER THIS AREA.

THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY LESS THERE. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
STATE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

WITH NEW FOUND MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS EXTRA LIFT WILL ONLY INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY AND
PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. 24/41

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAINING LOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST BUT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OUT EAST AND DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE WEST WILL ACT TO DECREASE STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SETTING OFF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND THE HIGH AND EXIT THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE WILL HELP INVIGORATE STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH THE WESTERN REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE EAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST
AREAS.  24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.

TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>516-523-526>534-537-539.

&&

$$

11




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.