Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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075
FXUS65 KABQ 042211
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
311 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL
STEER STORMS WELL NORTH OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORE BARK THAN BITE FROM MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN
ERN UT REPORTED LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS
TRANSLATE THIS FEATURE E-SEWD NEAR THE COLORADO LINE OVERNIGHT.
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE NRN SANGRES AND NE
HIGHLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE NW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHTS. DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO BREEZY NW WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EWD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS IN ERN NM SUNDAY...LOWERING TEMPS BACK BELOW CLIMO.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
BLOCKING FEATURE WILL STEER STORMS WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF NM
DURING THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR BEYOND.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTED THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE DRY INTRUSION WILL
SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RESIDUAL IMPACTS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AS BEST ONE CAN BUT LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
TRANSITIONAL CHANGES IN HUMIDITY READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH AND HAINES 4/5 READINGS
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THAT TREND.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT. GUSTIER WIND WILL BE FOUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARENT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH WITH
MANY AREAS ACTUALLY SEEING A FEW DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO TODAY/S
READINGS. THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS TO BE A DRIER ONE. PERHAPS A FEW MTN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. IF WETTING PRECIPITATION WERE TO
OCCUR...PROBABLY WOULD HAPPEN ACROSS THE FAR NE BUT NOT LIKELY.
VENTILATION WILL TREND UP.

RESIDUAL STRONG WIND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE WAVE DEPARTS ON SATURDAY. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A TAD ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. MIXING HEIGHT VALUES DROP
SOME SO VENTILATION RATES ACTUALLY LOWER. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH VALUES ARE COMING OUT IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR THE EC/SE PLAINS. TEMPS WARM AND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG
WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO
THE RECENT PRECIPITATION OVER PART OF THE AREA AND THE LACK OF
CONTINUOUS STRONG WIND/LOW RH/HIGHER HAINES VALUES.

THE RESIDUAL STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EAST. RH VALUES SHOULD RISE MOST AREAS. THE OVERALL SFC
WIND FLOW SHOULD DECREASE ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW MORE WEAK WAVE IMPULSES
WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST BUT NOT
LIKELY TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM
WHILE RH VALUES DROP. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON SNOW MELT
THUS INCREASING DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES. BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS. THUS...WENT BELOW RH
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TREND.
DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE...VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER AND
MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEK. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GET
BROKE DOWN AND PROBABLY A BIT EARLIER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MODELS
SHOW.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID/LATE EVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI MORNING.
LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND EVENTUALLY ROW BY LATE
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  11  34  10  39 /   5   0   0   0
DULCE........................... -10  28 -13  34 /  10   5   0   0
CUBA............................   6  32   3  37 /   5   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................   1  38   1  46 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................   0  34  -1  42 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................   2  39   1  48 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................   7  36   9  46 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  12  48  13  55 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  -5  26  -9  33 /  20  10   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  12  33  13  41 /   0   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  12  33  13  42 /   0  10   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  -1  26  -8  34 /  20  10   0   0
RED RIVER.......................   4  21   4  33 /  20  10   0   0
ANGEL FIRE...................... -14  26 -26  37 /  10  10   0   0
TAOS............................  -3  31  -9  37 /  10   5   0   0
MORA............................  11  32  10  45 /   0  10   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  14  39  11  46 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  15  34  16  41 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  14  37  12  43 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  18  39  18  46 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  20  42  20  48 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  15  43  15  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  18  42  20  49 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  11  44  10  49 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  20  42  20  48 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  22  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  16  35  18  42 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  14  37  14  44 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  11  37   6  44 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  12  33  13  40 /   0   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  17  39  17  45 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  19  44  20  49 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  20  39  21  47 /   0   0   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  14  31  11  46 /  10  20   0   0
RATON...........................  13  36   9  49 /  10  10   0   0
SPRINGER........................  15  41  12  52 /   0   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  12  37  13  50 /   0   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  20  40  19  55 /   0   5   0   0
ROY.............................  19  41  18  52 /   5   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  25  48  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  24  47  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  23  48  21  61 /   0   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  23  46  22  57 /   0   5   5   0
PORTALES........................  22  48  20  56 /   0   5   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  21  49  19  58 /   0   5   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  20  52  20  61 /   0   0   5   0
PICACHO.........................  22  48  22  57 /   0   0   5   0
ELK.............................  20  45  21  54 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33



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