Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 131732 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LEE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER NE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH SW WINDS
ALREADY BLOWING AT KLVS AND KTCC. INCREASING SW WINDS WILL HELP
SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER ERN PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS OVER RGV WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BTWN 18-20Z.
ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WRN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP OVER SE PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING...IMPACTING
KROW AFTER 04Z.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL HEADLINE THE
WEEKEND WEATHER STORY FOR NEW MEXICO. WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES INVADING EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY IN THE
WORK WEEK TO RETURN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. FROM
MIDWEEK ONWARD...A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO WILL HELP FEED MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO...WITH MORE SHOWERS IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AS
THE WORK WEEK DRAWS TO A CLOSE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE CORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EXTENDING
WESTWARD LOBE INTO WEST TEXAS...PROVIDING CONTINUED NORTHBOUND
SUPPORT FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. COLD FRONT
AT THE SURFACE NOW WELL SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO...AND JUST CLEARING
THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE AS IT SETS UP OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA. MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...WITH 40S
OVER THE EAST AND SOME 30S IN THE NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY...AND SOME
50S OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES ON FEATURE STRENGTH AND EXTENT
EMERGING FROM LATE FRIDAY IN TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. PLAUSIBLE
AND ACCEPTED CONSENSUS STARTS WITH RIDGE CORE OVER MOBILE BAY AND
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH WESTWARD LOBE TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY. RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD STEADILY ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTS ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
IN ADVANCE OF LARGE TROUGH SYSTEM EXTENDING OUT OF THE BERING SEA
INTO THE EAST PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS THE
WORK WEEK GETS UNDERWAY. TROUGH WILL DIG SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH IN
WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EFFORT IN VAIN TO LINK UP WITH THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM OFF BAJA...AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE REMAINS STRONG OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH MIDWEEK. BYPASSING THE TROPICAL
LEFTOVERS...TROUGH WILL BEGIN EASTWARD PUSH AND DIG TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY FRIDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES EMERGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS EUROPEAN
COLLEAGUES ARE MUCH LONGER AND STRONGER WITH TROUGH DIG INTO NEW
MEXICO...CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER INTERSTATE 40 ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. DOMESTIC GFS...IN CONTRAST...KEEPS FLOW
ALOFT PROGRESSIVE AND QUICK MOVING...SHEARING TROUGH RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES
WITH ONLY A QUICK CLIP OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO EN ROUTE. UNDERLYING
THEME IS SOME FORM OF TROUGH PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AND
EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING CAN SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW
PENDING IMPROVED WEEKEND COHERENCE IN MODEL RUNS TO COME.

FOR TODAY...REMAINING COOL IN THE WEST AS THE EAST REBOUNDS
SHARPLY BUT REMAINS 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID SEPTEMBER NORMALS.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION TO A SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PATTERN...WITH MOST ACTIVITY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND
LOCALLY FOCUSED ON THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THOSE OBSERVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS SOUTHWARD INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS...SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WILL SET UP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS.

FOR SUNDAY...RIDGE CORE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OUT OF WEST TEXAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...SUPPORTING ANOTHER WARM
PUSH AND A RETURN OF MOST SPOTS TO TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL. ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WEST AND SOUTH...WITH SPOTTY AND LOCALIZED COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY AND THE NORTHEAST REMAINING DRY. SPOTS IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND IN CATRON COUNTY NEAR THE
ARIZONA LINE...WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR SOME WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE LOW SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...A BROADER AREA OF SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY...COLORADO SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SPILL A COOL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN
TURN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EAST AND
SOUTH...WITH THE WEST AND NORTH REMAINING NORMAL OR BETTER.
FRONTAL ARRIVAL WILL REFOCUS SHOWER COVERAGE BACK TO THE
EAST...WITH UP SLOPE FLOW AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS PROVIDING
BEST CHANCES FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL...WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EASTERLY
BREEZES WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST AND RIDE COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 BEFORE SLOPPING AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND SQUIRTING THROUGH GAPS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

FOR TUESDAY...TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
CREEPING NORTHWARD ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST LINE...AS RIDGE
CORE BLOCKS ITS PROGRESS BY SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND
LEAVING NEW MEXICO UNDER ASSOCIATED DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST AND REFOCUS ON THE
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER...A LITTLE COOLER EAST AND
SOUTH...AND A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL WEST AND NORTH. SURFACE
WINDS RETURNING TO SOUTHERLY OVER THE EAST...WITH CONTINUED
EASTERLY COMPONENTS IN WIND DIRECTION OVER THE WEST.
SPEEDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE MODEST IN A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REGIME.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL SAG TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WORKING WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA REMAINS MOSTLY OVER ARIZONA AND CLEAR OF WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. GENERAL COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR AWAY FROM NORMALS FOR THE SEASON. WESTERN SHOWER COVERAGE
MIDWEEK WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE
EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. GENERALLY INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS...WITH A BREEZY FRIDAY ON TAP IN SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE AND CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTH GULF STATES. STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER KANSAS WITH NORTHEAST TO
EAST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH THE SURFACE FRONT INTO
EASTERN ARIZONA. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND UP SLOPE FLOW...LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CONTINUE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE EAST TODAY...
THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS. NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS IN
PLACE ALL ZONES...WITH A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE TO THE WEST AND
NORTH. WETTING RAIN TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED ON SOUTHERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. LEE TROUGHING
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP TO
SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS DECK.  SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT. MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WILL HAVE
VENTILATION RATES IN THE POOR TO FAIR CATEGORY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN STATES ON
SUNDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE EAST DRIFTS CLOSER TO
NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.  THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AND VENTILATION
IMPROVES AS WELL...THOUGH FAIR VALUES PERSIST IN THE WEST. WETTING
RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN.

THE NEXT BACK DOOR FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST MIDDAY
MONDAY...AND THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO STRENGTHEN THIS FRONT.
MODEST MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE EAST AND UP SLOPE FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR RAIN TO THE EAST...THOUGH WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. VENTILATION
DECREASES WITH POOR TO FAIR VALUES ACROSS WEST.  BY TUESDAY...POOR
TO FAIR VALUES EXTEND TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN ZONES AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BY MID WEEK THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO.  AT THE SAME TIME...THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
ODILE IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST WEST OF BAJA. SOME MOISTURE FROM
ODILE WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT
AT THIS TIME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS CONTINUES.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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