Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211920 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1220 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

Updated ZFP just sent. Lowered some highs for today with the front
progessing faster into ne NM. Some wind/winter wx highlight adjusted.


.PREV DISCUSSION...1047 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018...
Strong winds expected today, and they will linger into tonight in
many locations as the jet stream finishes crossing the area and a
back door cold front dives into the eastern plains. Blowing dust
may cause MVFR and locally IFR conditions this afternoon in dust
prone locations like TCC and ROW. Lingering snow impacts will favor
north central areas and northeast areas near the CO border through
this evening as precipitation wraps around the exiting upper level
low pressure system.



.PREV DISCUSSION...905 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018...
The upper low will take it`s time to exit northeastward this evening.
The latest models show some accumulating snow continuing in the
northern mountains through 11 pm, so we extended the Winter Weather
Advisory and Winter Storm Warning for northern-most areas until then.
Also, updated the wind speed forecast for today and this evening in
some places.



.PREV DISCUSSION...358 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018...
A stout disturbance aloft from the Pacific has moved over northern
New Mexico, bringing snow and stronger winds to the state. Snow will
continue to favor the north central mountains of New Mexico where a
few to several inches of accumulation are expected by this afternoon.
Snow showers will gradually wane in west central and northwestern New
Mexico today, but windy conditions will buffet much of the state.
Occasional wind gusts to 45 to 50 mph will be common in many areas
with even higher gusts of 60 to 70 mph possible along the central
mountains and highlands into the east central plains. Areas of
blowing dust will be common in lower elevations with blowing snow in
higher elevations. Dry and cool conditions are expected Monday with
much less wind. Temperatures will warm a few degrees into Tuesday and
Wednesday with the drier and more tranquil conditions expected to


The upper low is currently pulling over the Four Corners region.
The initial Pacific front was responsible for spawning some
precipitation, yet it was quite lackluster in the middle to lower Rio
Grande valley. Winter weather advisories will be canceled there, but
much of the existing I-40 winter highlights will hold through the
mid to late morning. Snow will likely taper to a lighter, showery
variety for some west central to central mountain zones, with wind
turning to the predominant concern by afternoon. Thus, wind
advisories will be tacked on for many zones this afternoon. Snow
forecast for the northern mountains and Raton Pass area still appears
to be on track, and while total accumulations might be a bit
marginal or slightly under warning criteria (for NMZ510, 513, 514),
the blowing snow element was considered and hence the warnings will
continue as-is with adjacent advisories in north central zones
persisting. Suffice it to say, the wind and winter statements are a
bear and quite messy, but this complicated scenario required a
patchwork of upgrades and extensions.

Winds this evening will be slow to come down in the central highlands
and portions of the east central plains while the northeastern plains
observe a ripping northwesterly component behind that segment of the
cold front. These areas will need to be monitored closely for
potential adjustments to high wind warning/advisory statements.

Monday appears to be remarkably more tame and tranquil, but some
breezy northwest winds will still be observed in the usual suspect
areas from the northwest plateau to the central highlands. After
falling short of normal today, most zones will creep closer to
seasonal temperatures on Monday with dry conditions and just a few
high fair weather cirrus clouds.

By Tuesday, a trough takes shape with the bulk of the pressure falls
observed over Sonora, Mexico. This moisture-starved feature will not
have the required baroclinicity or jet structure to formulate any
precipitation, and will essentially be of little consequence to NM,
other than some faint patches of mid to high clouds. Temperatures
should be back to normal in most zones Tuesday, with just the eastern
plains hanging a couple to a few degrees below.

The warming should continue into Wednesday and Thursday with
temperatures creeping just above normal in most zones. Light winds
aloft on Wednesday will turn stronger from the west southwest into
Thursday. By Thursday night into Friday an upper trough will
progressively track over the central Rockies, sweeping a stiff jet
aloft over southern NM while hardly providing much forcing for scant
precipitation in the far northern reaches of the state. Cooler air
would then slide down the plains in the wake of the trough, cooling
eastern zones back below normal on Saturday.



Active weather for the next 24 hours as the Pacific cold front
continues to work its way through New Mexico. The front has pushed
to Sangre de Cristo`s, down through the Central Highlands at Clines
Corners, and the Sacramento Range early this morning. The front will
work its way to the TX border by sunrise, with an accompanying gusts
up to 35-50 mph blowing up dust and other light debris. Snow showers
will continue across the western and northern high terrain through
the morning diminishing in the afternoon.

High winds 40-45mph with gusts up to 60mph will expand to the East-
Central plains by mid-late morning diminishing by sunset. Breezy to
windy conditions will also exist 30- 40mph with gusts up to 50 mph
over the Gila, Sandia/Manzanos, and the adjacent Rio Grande and
Estancia Valleys later in the morning diminishing by sunset. A
northerly wind shift will also enter the far northeast plains of
Union county by the afternoon keeping windy conditions going there
into the late evening.

The Pacific storm system moves into the U.S. Central Plains Monday,
leaving behind poor/fair ventilations rates, calmer winds, and below
normal temperatures. Temperatures trend back up through next week,
while ventilation rates remaining poor to fair. Long range models
continue to depict another trough bringing through another front by
Friday. Downsloping winds combined with dry and above normal
temperatures could produce critical fire conditions across the
northeast plains Thursday afternoon. Will need to continue to
monitor as we get closer in time.



Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for the following zones...

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ533>536.

Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ530-531.

High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ523-524-526-539-540.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for the
following zones... NMZ512-515-516-527.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ510-513-514.

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM MST this afternoon for the
following zones... NMZ511-517.

Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this evening for
the following zones... NMZ511.


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