Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 251745 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
CLOUDS BUILDING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
-SHRA/TSRA BY 21Z ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. STORM MOTION WILL
BE NORTHWARD NEAR 10KTS WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOWS.
ANY ACTIVITY TODAY WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LCL HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONT DVD. ANOTHER AREA OF
STORMS IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE CO/NM BORDER WITHIN THE NE
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER
SUNSET TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOR WESTERN NM.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...925 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015...
.UPDATE...
ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS TODAY IN
ACCORDANCE WITH SOME OF THE FORECAST MODELS. THERE IS NOT A LOT
OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THIS PROBABILITY...HOWEVER THERE
HAVE BEEN STORMS THERE THE LAST 2 DAYS UNDER THIS SAME WEATHER
PATTERN AND ISOLATED CELLS ALREADY DEVELOPED THERE THIS MORNING.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THESE CELLS WILL BE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVES LITTLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A NEAR REPEAT OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
RESULT. AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY...A MORE CONSOLIDATED
MONSOON PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS MOST AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN
DAILY ROUNDS OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT GETS INTO THE MIX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT IN THE HIGH AND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING NWD
THROUGH ERN AZ...EXPECTING A VERY SIMILAR DAY WITH STORM COVERAGE
AND LOCATION TO YESTERDAY. ON SUNDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE PACNW. THIS TROUGH WILL
INCREASE THE SLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE RGV AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATING A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WORKS IN FROM AZ.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MID WEEK AND
BEYOND. AS THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH/LOW SLIDES EWD THROUGH THE
NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE FORCED TO
ELONGATE AND RETROGRADE/MOVE WEST. THIS WWD SHIFT WILL TURN THE
FLOW ALOFT TO NLY...SENDING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST
NM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND WRN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
BOTH MODELS PROG WIDESPREAD PERHAPS HEAVY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER ALL THE BUT THE SE PLAINS. SIMILAR
SCENARIO APPEARS ON TRACK FOR THURSDAY AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR AND EAST OF
THE DIVIDE FRI AFTN...IT LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...THOUGH THE INDICATIONS OF THAT ARE PRETTY SUBTLE AND NOT
UNANIMOUS AMONG ALL THE FCST MODELS. STILL SHOULD SEE SOME SPOTTY
WETTING RAIN...ESPEC WEST AND NORTH...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INITIALLY. EXPECTING A SLIGHT TO MODERATE INCREASE IN WETTING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW AND
SOUTHWARD EXTENDING TROUGH DROP INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THIS SHOULD
INITIALLY DRAW UP SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE INTO THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME OVER THE STATE...BUT WILL NOT BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE MORE
THAN A MODEST...IF THAT...DYNAMICS ASSIST TO AID SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING NECESSARILY A WIDESPREAD BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT AT LEAST A SLIGHT TO MODERATE INCREASE FOR
MOST OF NORTH...WEST AND EVEN CENTRAL NM. THE FAR NW AS WELL AS SE
AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS FAVORED.

THE SLIGHTLY CLOSER APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BY MONDAY
SHOULD FORCE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE NW THIRD OR SO OF NM AS
WINDS ALOFT TURN A BIT MORE WESTERLY. THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE JUST
YET HOWEVER AS IT IS A ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE WIND FIELD...SO
STAY TUNED IN TO THESE DISCUSSIONS. DEWPOINT VALUES WILL DROP
BRINGING LOWER AFTN RH VALUES AND LESS NIGHTTIME RECOVERY TO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. THIS MAY LINGER INTO TUE. THEREAFTER FCST MODELS
STILL INSIST THAT THE UPPER HIGH THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED JUST EAST OF
THE STATE WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN OR AT LEAST BETWEEN THERE
AND THE FOUR CORNERS. SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TRANSITION OF THE
PACIFIC NW TROUGH OVER THE UPPER HIGH THEN DROPPING SE INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY THEN BE ABLE TO
MAKE INROADS INTO AND PERHAPS ACROSS MOST OF NM IN THE WED TO THU
PERIOD. IF...AND IT IS A PRETTY BIG IF FOR A MID SUMMER BACK DOOR
FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH ALL OR EVEN MOST OF NM...THE FRONT IS AS
VIGOROUS AS MOST MODELS ARE ADVERTISING IT WOULD BRING A PRETTY
DECENT RECHARGE OF MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES AND
COVERAGE INTO THE STATE FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THESE TWO DAYS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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