000
FXUS65 KABQ 141721
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1120 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD TCU/-TS ALREADY BUILDING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN IN LINE WITH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
STILL EXPECTING ISOLD/SCT -TS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WHILE MOST -TS
WILL BE OF THE DRY VARIETY, THEY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG,
GUSTY, AND ERRATIC WINDS. TS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD MOSTLY BE WOUND DOWN BY 02Z, BUT COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLD
SHRA/-TS CONTINUE UP UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. -TS TO REDEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED THAN TODAY AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...317 AM MDT TUE MAY 14 2013...
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER RELATED WITH DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES TODAY AND WED THEN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRI
THROUGH THE AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE BAJA CA...GULF OF CA...SONORA
WILL SHEAR OUT AND LIFT NE TODAY. HEIGHTS TO LOWER OVER NM WITH
AN INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH MORE
INSTABILITY THIS PM AND EVE WITH LIFTED INDICES TO -3 AND CAPES
GREATER THAN 1000 OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY BUT MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL NM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR STORM THIS PM AND EVE. MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE DRY AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN PARCHED...DEWPOINTS
REMAIN BELOW 30 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ERN PLAINS WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY AS THIS REGION MORE STABLE AND STEERING FLOW TAKES CNTRL
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO THE SW. HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO 5 DEGREES WARMER
TODAY THAN MON.

A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NE TONIGHT OR WED BUT NOT
MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS S OR W. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THOUGH WED AND THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY OF THE WET VARIETY
FROM THE SANGRES E TOT HE TX BORDER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 30S. DRY STORMS. ISOLATED AND MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE W AND S OF THIS AREA WED. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
ON WED EXCEPT FOR MINOR COOLING IN THE NE. A WELL DEFINED DRY SLOT
WILL BEGIN TO PRESS INTO WRN NM WED.

DRY SLOT AND RIDGE ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE STATE THU WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SW FLOW BEGINS FRI AND
CONTINUES SAT BEFORE TURNING NW SUN. WINDS TO INCREASE WHILE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRY...CREATING POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER THE EAST. FRI WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AND
PROBABLY DRY...ALTHOUGH GFS BRINGS MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. TROUGH CROSSES NM SAT WITH NW FLOW SUN. TEMPS
TO COOL SOME BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HAVE MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW. CHJ

.FIRE WEATHER...

...DRY LIGHTNING BUST FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS THIS WEEK...

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RAMP UP TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DRY
LIGHTNING BREAKS OUT IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WEATHER
SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHWEST
MEXICO TODAY AND THIS EVENING...CROSSING SE NM INTO W TX. FOLLOWING
QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG NEW MEXICOS NORTHERN BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TODAYS UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL SPAN THE AREA FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD
TO THE E SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. COVERAGE WILL MAINLY
BE ISOLATED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A SCATTERED MIX OF WET AND
DRY CELLS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY
SMALL AREAS OF LAL 6 IN THE NORTHERN...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. PEAKS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SANGRES
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LAL 6 THROUGH THE EVENING...SPANNING THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE N CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. MOST OF THE CELLS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANGRES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WETTING PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SANDIA/MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHER...PEAKS LOCATED EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO HAVE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUS...LAL 6 IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR WED...JUST
TUE AND TUE EVENING.

AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 7 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE EAST. THE WEST
WILL EXPERIENCE SLIGHT COOLING EACH DAY WHILE READINGS REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL
AREAS...AND THIS COULD INDUCE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY IN THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY WILL FAVOR THE VICINITY OF
I-40 EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INDUCING A FEW HOURS OF
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM AROUND CORONA TO SANTA ROSA.

THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL TRACK SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL
APPROACH NM FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THEN CROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE BOTH DAYS.
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT
FORECAST GRIDS DEPICT PATCHIER COVERAGE IN THE WEST.  WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD CLIMAX ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE FROM
ROY TO SANTA ROSA AND TUCUMCARI. TO MAKE MATTERS MORE
HAZARDOUS...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY NOW ALSO LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
AS THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THE TRAILING NORTHWESTERLY FETCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM
WILL STRADDLE THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER TO THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER. THIS COULD CAUSE A RETURN OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH FROM CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA...AND A BROAD SWATH OF GUSTS
IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL COME
UP A FEW PERCENT...THEY WILL REMAIN CRITICALLY LOW IN MOST
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL IN THE
NORTHWEST TO AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE POTENTIAL NOW EXISTS FOR BROAD COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO THE TX BORDER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PATCHIER CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AS FAR NW AS
THE FARMINGTON AREA.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSES THE NW FETCH OF
THE POLAR JET STREAM EASTWARD...CAUSING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO LINGER
MONDAY IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$