Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 232353 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD THROUGH CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
06Z. WEST WINDS TO 40KT NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EWD OVERNIGHT. MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AT MOST TAF SITES SUNDAY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...243 PM MDT SAT APR 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS ELSEWHERE IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM THROUGH
EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z RAOB AT KFGZ SHOWED 55KT WINDS NEAR 700MB AND THE 20Z SURFACE
OBS CERTAINLY SPEAK VOLUMES ABOUT MIXING TODAY. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN AZ/WESTERN NM WITH
BLDU REPORTED AT KFMN. STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EAST
THRU LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING INCREASES WITH TEMPS RISING TO
NEAR 80F. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING QUICKLY IN THE EAST BUT ISOLD
-SHRA/TSRA HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE GRADIENT FROM FROM NEAR CHAVES
COUNTY NORTH TO TUCUMCARI. SPC GUIDANCE INDICATED A MARGINAL RISK
AND SHORT-TERM MODELS STILL BREAK OUT CONVECTION THRU 03Z. KEPT
ISOLD POPS FOR THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE TX LINE WITH A COUPLE
CHANCE BULLSEYES NEAR TUCUMCARI AND CLOVIS AS PROGGED BY THE 12Z
WRF.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND WINDY WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
ABV NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY TUESDAY. WIND
ADVISORY SPEEDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY ALONG I-40 WITHIN EASTERN NM AS A
JET MAX IN THE BASE OF A PASSING UPPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A 992MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR CLAYTON. ADVISORY SPEEDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE STATE MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS AND INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY AS THIS
NEXT TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF NM. 700MB COLD ADVECTION TO NEAR +2C
WILL TREND TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AS YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO
THE SW AND KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT IS
SPRING AFTER ALL IN NM. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE TX STATE LINE THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE BEYOND THURSDAY IS LOW REGARDING TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FLOPPING AROUND ON THE LOCATION AND
BREADTH OF THE NEXT LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CLOSED LOWS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO PASS TO OUR NORTH...WHILE STRONG WINDS
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGHS.

SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EASTWARD ALLOWING MIN RH VALUES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EAST. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY
DRY WITH  GUSTY WINDS. AT THE TX BORDER STORMS COULD TURN BRIEFLY
SEVERE WITH HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...AND ANY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL
BE RIGHT ALONG THE TX BORDER. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD.

SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AS A STRONG DRY SLOT OVERTAKES NEW MEXICO. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY...AND WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE SOLID CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MET FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN
ZONE 103 SO WILL ADD THEM TO THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR SUNDAY. MIN RH
VALUES ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE FROM 7 TO 12 PERCENT. HAINES VALUES
WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE WARNED AREA.

RH RECOVERIES WILL WORSEN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE FAIR TO POOR. WINDS RAMP UP AGAIN MONDAY AND ARE
STILL ADVERTISED TO BE STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE
WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST. HAINES INDICES WILL BE MOSTLY 5
TO 6.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SO WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT
102. ANY STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE SECOND STORM WILL BE IN THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY AND WILL TURN
NORTHEAST TUESDAY...BRINGING LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT MORE STRONG
WINDS. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL
AT THE TEXAS BORDER. HAINES VALUES WILL STILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH
ACROSS THE EAST AND THIS IS THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE A 4TH DAY OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. RH RECOVERIES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FAIR TO POOR.

FINALLY A LITTLE BREAK ON WEDNESDAY WITH LESS WIND AND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RH VALUES. DESPITE THIS...CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD BE
APPROACHED OR REACHED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOR A FEW HOURS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THE NEXT CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA THURSDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK LIKE THEY TRACK THE LOW A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH...PROVIDING SOME HOPE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NM FRIDAY WITH DECENT
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY PINWHEEL THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND TURN
TOWARD THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT NEXT WEEKEND.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ101-105-106.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ101-103>109.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
 NMZ501>507-510>516-521-523-527>531.

&&

$$

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