Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 181759 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1159 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
TAKING TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE NE AND EC PLAINS BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THIS PM. CHJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1136 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTERED BETWEEN KLVS AND KTCC WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NEWD AND EXITS THE STATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA WILL SHIFT TO NC/NE NM
BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL TOUCH OFF ISOLATED
-SHRA AND -TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THIS ACTIVITY DRIFTING TOWARD THE N OR NE LATE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY MODERATE W-E GRADIENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY GAP
WINDS PERSISTING AT KSAF AND KABQ...THOUGH TYPICAL DIURNAL WEAKENING
REMAINDER OF TODAY BEFORE BRIEFLY STRENGTHENING NEAR 00Z BEFORE
ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. FORECAST AFTER 00Z WILL FOCUS ON
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS...-SHRA AND VCFG EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND RENEWED -SHRA COVERAGE FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS. WILL
INCLUDE PROB30 FOR KFMN...KGUP...KSAF TO SHOW TREND FOR LATE NIGHT
ACTIVITY WHERE CONFIDENCE HIGHEST AND INCLUDE PLACEHOLDER VCSH FOR
ABQ AREA TERMINALS. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...834 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014...
.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST ZONES BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.
MINOR QPF ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL. ZONES OUT SHORTLY. CHJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...254 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY...AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO
AROUND A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
COAST. SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BECOME THE NORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP AND
SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WESTBOUND COLD FRONT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BEGINNING TO STALL OUT...AS FAST PROPAGATING SHORTWAVE SHEARS OUT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

MODELS...00Z RUNS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK AND FOLLOWING WEEKEND...BUT NOTING THE 18Z RUNS HAVE NOT
ENJOYED SUCH HARMONY LATELY. 00Z RUNS SHOWING QUICK BLIP SHORTWAVE
CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TREK ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT WITH
FEATURE PRETTY MUCH GONE BY MIDDAY TODAY. UPSTREAM TROUGH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN SLOW DRIFT
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY...WITH WEAKENING SYSTEM
FORMING A CEREMONIAL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST SONORA...AS
REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES INTO A RIDGE FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO ARCTIC CANADA. CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN BACK
UP INTO A WEAK WAVE LATE MONDAY OVER WESTERN CHIHUAHUA AS
OVERLYING RIDGE CORE CENTERS UP ON SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. NEXT UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH
CALIFORNIA AND SHEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE SHEARED ZONAL FLOW WILL BUCKLE INTO A
TROUGH FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL TO CLIP EASTERN NEW MEXICO. UPSTREAM RIDGE CORE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY
TO BUMP AGAINST BASE OF MIDWESTERN TROUGH...WHICH WILL FLOP
POSITIVE AND DIG TROUGH BASE BACK INTO THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND
COUNTRY AND COAHUILA. RIDGE WILL FINALLY WIN OUT HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH TAKES SHAPE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ALASKA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
ACTION WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO AS THE
WEEKEND WRAPS UP.

FOR TODAY...COLD FRONT STALLING OUT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS
UPSTREAM TROUGH ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT WILL HELP PUSH A LITTLE MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE IN A WIDE COVERAGE BUT LOW INTENSITY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE EAST 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WHILE THE WEST REMAINS A HANDFUL OF DEGREES ABOVE MID
OCTOBER NORMALS. TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHEAST END OF THE STATE WILL SET UP SOME AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY
BREEZES MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER...WITH BREEZINESS CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...UPSTREAM TROUGH BULGING AT THE BASE OVER THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND BACKING FLOW
ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY. MOISTURE TAP
WILL FOCUS MORE ON THE WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE...WITH INCREASED INTENSITY IN A WIDE COVERAGE PRECIPITATION
DAY. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SHOW UP IN THE WEST...WITH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH COUNTRY PICKING UP SOME RAINFALL AS
WELL...AND LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE MARGINAL PLAINS TO THE EAST.
CLOUD COVER WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF WESTERN
TEMPERATURES...WITH A WARM UP TO THE EAST AND NORTH AS COLD FRONT
WASHES OUT. MOST SPOTS WILL REACH NORMAL AND A COUPLE DEGREES MORE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY...CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW
SPRAWLED OVER THE BOOT HEEL...THE DRAGOON MOUNTAIN COUNTRY OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AND NORTHERN SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA. VERY WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
KINEMATIC HELP TO CHANGE THE DAILY TREND OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
BUT MODEST INTENSITY IN THE SHOWERS. BEST CHANCES FOR MORE SOLID
RAINFALL WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE CLOSED
LOW...AND MUCH OF THIS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MONDAY WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH A STRONG SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT AWAY FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TUESDAY...CLOSED LOW OPENING INTO A WEAK WAVE WITH VERY MODEST
WAVE BASE BEGINNING SLOW DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW
MEXICO. WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE WITH MODEST INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE WITH LARGER RAINFALLS PAINTING OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF LATE OCTOBER NORMALS...A LITTLE COOLER IN THE
SOUTH...AND A LITTLE WARMER IN THE NORTH. SOME REINVIGORATION OF
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EAST WILL SET UP AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS...AND OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH FLOW ALOFT TURNING
SHARPLY NORTHWEST THURSDAY BEHIND A SOUTHWARD PLUNGING COLD FRONT IN
ADVANCE OF RIDGE CORE BUILDING FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC.
RIDGE WILL CENTER UP OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON FRIDAY TO INTENSIFY
THE DRYING TREND. FAIRLY STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AS WIDESPREAD
SHOWER COVERAGE WEDNESDAY REFOCUSES ON THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AND WINDING DOWN TO ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TREND TOWARD COOLER AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...HIGHER DEW POINTS...MORE CLOUDS ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ON
TAP FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.

INITIAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING MID AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT TO ALLOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A SECOND...SLIGHTLY STRONGER...UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ATMOSPHERIC FORCING/LIFT IS RATHER WEAK SO WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

VENTILATION RATES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FAIR TO GOOD RANGE TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT INCREASE DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...VENT RATES WILL DROP INTO THE POOR TO FAIR
RANGE.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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