Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 220550
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1050 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OBSCURED. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
WILL PERSIST THRU 22/15Z. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WND INTO THE RGV
AT KSAF AND KABQ WITH GUSTS AT KABQ TO AROUND 40KT WILL PERSIST
THRU 22/15Z BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING NLY. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SN AND FOG THRU 22/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...230 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM NUMBER ONE UNDERWAY WITH A NICE LOOKING SWIRL ON SATELLITES
OVER EASTERN AZ. THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NM TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND
ONE DROPS SOUTH FROM CO AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN NM
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE SNOW GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL TOTALS BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF HE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THE SNOW
ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL BE IN A DRIER PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE INCHING THE STORM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE
BAJA CA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND CLOSER TO NM. THE MOISTURE IT DRAWS
NORTH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM UNDERWAY WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AT THE SNOTEL
SITES AND 2 INCHES OR LESS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NM.
FIRST SYSTEM OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL AZ WILL CROSS NM TONIGHT WHILE
THE SECOND SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH AND DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW ALONG
THE CO AND NM BORDER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ACCELERATING IT
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM...WEST TX LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO DROP
THE ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AS
IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE SNOW WILL END UP SOUTH AND EAST OF
THEM. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ONLY TWO
REMAINING ZONES NOT CURRENTLY IN ANY HEADLINES...THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE AND TULAROSA VALLEYS.

ONCE THESE SYSTEMS MOVE AWAY WE WILL BE LEFT WITH DRY AND CHILLY
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD ASSUMING WE GET
THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL CONTINUE
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND A
LITTLE ABOVE ON MONDAY. MODELS THEN BRING MOISTURE FROM THE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS AND CLOSES OFF WEST OF BAJA CA THIS WEEKEND INTO NM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON QPF MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME BUT NOT
NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS THE GFS SUGGESTS. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. MASSIVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO WILL PUSH SECOND ROUND OF STRONG WINTRY
STORM CORE OUT OF COLORADO AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF NEW MEXICO
INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. TROUGH WILL BEGIN
DRIFTING EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE WORK WEEK WINDS UP. AS NEXT
INBOUND SOUTHBOUND CLOSED LOW SUDDENLY WINDS UP AND DRIFTS OUT INTO
THE PACIFIC OCEAN BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....WEEKEND
WINDS ALOFT WILL DROP OFF TO NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE
FOLLOWING MONDAY...BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE CORE WEAKENS THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST...MODEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST...AS TROUGH CENTER DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY
FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTLINE TO NORTHERN SONORA AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA BY FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY AIR MOVING INTO
NEW MEXICO.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH COLDER OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL CENTRAL AND
EAST...AND SHIFTING THROUGH THE WEST MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT...BUT AGGRESSIVE WINDS WILL BLOW OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND BRING OVERNIGHT EASTERLY GUSTS OVER
THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

FOR THURSDAY...STORM CORE OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AS STORM IMPACT
SLIDES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE EAST...AND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEST WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS DOMINATING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ALL ABOVE THE 60S IN THE EAST...AND IN THE 40S
AND 50S IN THE WEST...WITH EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES.
VENTILATION WILL RUN GOOD IN THE STORMIER AND WINDIER WEATHER SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40...BUT VENTILATION CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE BACK TO
POOR CATEGORY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM TROUGH SHIFTING EAST TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS...LEAVING PRETTY MUCH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO IN
THE WAKE OF THE STORM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP FOR THE DAY...BUT THESE WILL REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EAST...AND 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEST...AND CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST...WITH
GUSTS MOSTLY ON THE SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH POOR VENTILATION IN
PLAY...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BACK TO THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE
WEST...AND 40S AND 50S WITH SOME 60S PCT OVER THE EAST. GENERALLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS NEW MEXICO ENDS UP ON
RIDGE BETWEEN DEEP STORM OUT IN THE PACIFIC...AND TIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS BLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND SURFACE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
EAST...WITH NEAR NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES COOL OVER THE WEST.
CONTINUED POOR VENTILATION STATUS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TREND THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST COAST INTRODUCING
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE COLORADO LINE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. GENERAL NORTHWEST BREEZES SUNDAY GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY
BY TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
CONTINUED POOR VENTILATION CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
BROADER IMPROVEMENT TO GOOD CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LITTLE CHANGE
TO SURFACE HUMIDITIES THROUGH ALL THREE DAYS. SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-504-506>508-519-520-525.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>518-521>524-526>540.

&&

$$







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