Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 281801 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1201 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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