000
FXUS65 KABQ 151133 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
533 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVING WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
CENTRAL NM THIS MORNING AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS FROM THE W. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER GUSTY
SHOWERS WITH VFR BASES AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL AND SE
AREAS THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY A LIGHTNING STRIKE. THIS AFTN
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SCT TO ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG AND E OF THE CONTDVD. STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE W WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY MICROBURSTS W OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...BUT THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
MICROBURSTS FROM CELLS FARTHER E. WATCH FOR ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO
45 KT WITH TODAYS STORMS. STRONGER WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE MORE PERSISTENT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 KT
RANGE FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTN. THE DRY AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALL OF THE WAY TO THE EASTERN BORDER BY MIDNIGHT.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013...
A WELL DEFINED SHEARED VORT AXIS STRETCHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. THE CURRENT MOISTURE
POOL IN VCNTY OF THIS WAVE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS 850-500MB LAYER FLOW BECOMES NW AND SHIFTS MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY START ON THE WETTER SIDE
BUT STRUGGLE TO HOLD ON AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. LEFT GUSTY WORDING
IN GRIDS FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR STORMS EXITING INTO THE NE
PLAINS TO REMAIN ON THE WETTER SIDE. WARM ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE
A DEGREE OR TWO INCREASE IN TEMPS FOR THE SOUTH AND WEST WHILE
PERSISTENT CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN KNOCK READINGS
BACK A FEW DEGREES.

A LARGE REGION OF DEEP DRY AIR WILL SLIDE EAST ON INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THURSDAY WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION.
700MB TEMPS RISE TO +14C AT KABQ WHICH IS ALMOST +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
WITH EVEN SOME 90S IN THE ABQ VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS. STRONG
MIXING WILL FAVOR A MORE WIDESPREAD BREEZY DAY. HPC PROBABILISTIC
QPF VALUES THURSDAY ARE NIL SO HAVE ESSENTIALLY REMOVED POPS FOR
ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MTS. WESTERLY FLOW
WILL BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING
TROUGH ALLOWING A WEAK SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO TO ADVANCE QUICKLY NE INTO NM. NAM12 QPF STILL SHOWS SOME
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN. HPC PROBABILISTIC QPF VALUES FOR A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH INCREASE AS WELL. 700MB TEMPS STAY AT +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
SO HIGH TEMPS OF 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND HOW DEEP THE WAVE
BECOMES IS STILL A QUESTION. WINDS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ARE QUITE STRONG SO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO
BE A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT IN THE BASE OF THE WAVE SO CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST SHOT FOR SOME SHOWERS
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN MTS. 700MB TEMPS
COOL BACK TO MID MAY CLIMO. GUYER

.FIRE WEATHER...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY LIGHTNING TODAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS
THIS WEEKEND...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER LAS VEGAS...NV THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
ENE ACROSS S UT TODAY AND CENTRAL CO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
SOME MOISTURE IS IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP AGAIN TODAY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...EXCEPT FOR
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MID LEVEL DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD MAKE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DRY. CELLS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE WETTER UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE
DRY AIR WILL REACH THE PLAINS TOO. LAL 6 ARE FORECAST IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND AROUND MOUNT TAYLOR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE CAPULIN VOLCANO REGION OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
VARY FROM A FEW TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WITH THE TROUGH
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...NW WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 30 TO
40 MPH RANGE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF FORT SUMNER TO THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST.
THERE COULD BE A DRY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
MAINLY NEAR THE CO BORDER AS THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING CO SLOWLY
EXITS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REDEVELOP. THESE WILL BE WEAKER THAN
WEDNESDAYS SPEEDS IN MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 MPH. LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FOUND FROM AROUND CLINES CORNERS TO
AROUND MELROSE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SOME WITH HIGHS 5 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND
ON FRIDAY...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
MEXICO. WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.
PRECEDING SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MAY BRING WITH THEM ENOUGH ELEVATED MOISTURE TO SPARK SPOTTY
DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA FROM SPRINGER TO GRAN QUIVIRA AND EASTWARD. LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST FARTHER WEST IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS
AND THE VICINITY OF GALLUP.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WINDS OVER NEW MEXICO FAIRLY STRONG
RESULTING IN BROAD COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS EASTERN AREAS FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS SATURDAY UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK. HOWEVER...AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE NORTHWESTERLY FETCH OF THE JET
STREAK WILL CROSS SUNDAY SPREADING STRONGER WINDS AND CRITICAL
CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE NORTHWEST AREAS AS WELL.  CRITICAL CONDITIONS
MONDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EASTWARD. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A COUPLE OF FRONTS
ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS DURING THIS PERIOD...ONE FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY AND ONE FROM THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
NUDGE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEMPERATURES NEAR AND A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL...WHILE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL READINGS REMAIN NEAR AND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$