Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211146 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
546 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Mt top winds are already increasing early this morning with several
sites across southern Colorado gusting over 40kt. Deep mixing and
warm temperatures today will result in widespread breezy conditions
across much of NM aft 17Z. Peak wind gusts of 25-35kt are likely at
most sites by 21Z. Winds will slowly diminish aft sunset all areas.
Clouds will increase over southeastern NM this evening signaling a
more active weather day expected Friday.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will develop over the Great Basin
today and Friday causing southwest winds to become breezy to windy
over New Mexico. The low will also steer better moisture north and
northeastward over the state as it shifts slowly eastward over the
central Rockies this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms that start in
the northwest mountains Thursday night will become more widespread
Friday through Saturday, before lingering along and east of the
central mountain chain Sunday and Monday. Cooler temperatures are
expected Friday through Sunday and heavy rainfall will be possible
across the eastern plains, where 1 to 3 inch rain amounts may be
common with locally higher measurements. A few strong-to-severe
thunderstorms will also be possible across the eastern plains each
afternoon and evening. A moist back door cold front early next week
will cause precipitation to become more widespread while keeping
temperatures cool.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The strengthening southwest flow aloft should cause the strongest
surface winds to occur Friday across the northeast where/when wind
gusts could approach 50 mph near the CO border. The aforementioned
upper level low will draw a moist south and southeasterly low level
return flow over eastern NM Friday into Sunday, creating a favorable
shear profile for a 3-day stretch of strong to severe storms. Large
hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall look to be the main
threats. Meanwhile, an upper level dry slot will gradually progress
into western then central parts of the forecast area as the upper low
moves slowly northeastward across CO and WY Sunday and Monday. The
dry air will limit the rain potential of western storms, and it may
make enough progress over the plains to limit Sunday`s severe
storm/heavy rain threat to our eastern-most counties.

Monday and Monday night the upper level low pressure system will pick
up speed as it exits northeastward from the central Rockies into the
upper Great Plains. In it`s wake the GFS and ECMWF depict a long
wave trough that will linger over the western US, and a gusty back
door cold front that will push southwestward through NM`s eastern
plains. The front is expected to deliver enough moisture to keep
showers and thunderstorms going mainly from the central mountain
chain eastward Monday and Monday night. A moderate-to-strong east
canyon wind will probably develop in the Rio Grande Valley Monday
night as the front and associated moisture push into central and
western NM. This should cause showers and thunderstorms to favor the
area from the continental divide to the central mountain chain on
Tuesday.

Both GFS and the ECMWF depict another upper level low pressure system
developing somewhere around the Four Corners or western NM border
Tuesday night and Wednesday, though they differ on its track once it
develops. The new low should keep showers and storms active across
the forecast area and the weather cool through mid week.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing winds over NM the past few days serves as the indication
of seasonal changes on the horizon. An upper level low developing
over the western U.S. will move slowly southward toward the Great
Basin through Saturday. Deep layer south/southwest winds sliding
over NM with deepening surface low pressure over the Front Range
will generate windy conditions. Dry air in association with this
flow pattern across western NM will favor marginal critical fire
weather conditions through Friday. Temperatures will cool enough
beneath the upper wave Saturday to mitigate fire weather potential
across western NM. Meanwhile, moisture will slide north across
eastern NM Saturday and greatly increase the chance for widespread
moderate to perhaps heavy rainfall through Sunday. Vent rates for
most of NM will be good to excellent with the stronger flow aloft.

The initial upper wave will eject into Colorado Sunday then into the
northern plains states Monday. This will force a back door frontal
boundary into eastern NM Monday and replenish moisture westward into
the Rio Grande Valley. Yet another upper low will attempt to slide
south toward NM Tuesday and Wednesday and continue the chances for
rain and storms over the region. Temperatures will cool below normal
with the second upper wave, with even some snow on the highest peaks
of NM through late week. Ventilation rates will deteriorate to poor
or fair most areas beneath the second wave. This overall cooler and
wetter pattern may hang around over the area through next weekend.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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