Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 222243
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
343 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR TONIGHT...CAUSING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
BOTTOM OUT ACROSS THE AREA...AND FOR AREAS OF FREEZING FOG TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. GRADUAL WARMING WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD...THOUGH AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT SNOW MAY BE
SLOWER TO REBOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SUBTROPICAL LOW POTENTIALLY BRINGING RAIN
TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT WINTER
STORM WILL NOT SET TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW NOW SITS OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NEW
MEXICO...AND IS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS PROGRESSION TO THE SOUTHEAST.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS FALLING
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THEY SHIFT INTO WEST
CENTRAL TX...WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. IF MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS AT LOCALES LIKE
ROSWELL...HAZARD PRODUCTS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED...BUT THINK THAT
MAIN IMPACTS WILL SUBSIDE BEFORE PRODUCTS EXPIRE. NORTH TO SOUTH
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD FIELD TONIGHT WILL CREATE SOME BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES...WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
OVER SNOW COVERED PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXACT AREAL
COVERAGE IS TOUGH TO PINPOINT AS IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
QUICKLY CLOUDS CLEAR...BUT BEST GUESS HAS THE FOG STRETCHING FROM
CLAYTON SOUTHEAST TO SANTA ROSA...AND SOUTHWEST TO
CLOVIS...INCLUDING TUCUMCARI.

COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY WILL TRANSITION EAST SATURDAY AS
A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BE FACILITATED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THAT WILL
DIVE SOUTHWEST...AND CLOSE OFF WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.
WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT...SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL FROM THIS LAST SYSTEM...AS THE GRADUAL MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK WILL LIMIT WARMING. NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH
IMPACT...NOR FOR HOW LONG...THE SNOW WILL INFLUENCE
TEMPERATURES...BUT KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE COMING
MORE IN LINE SUNDAY. THE OTHER COMPLICATION WILL BE HOW EFFECTIVE
WARM DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAN BE IN ERODING SNOW PACK AND INCREASING
MORNING AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHEAST.

THE STORY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WHERE THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES FROM THE BAJA CALI COAST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT IT
WILL MOVE NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN
PHASE INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. BUT THEY STILL HAVE MAJOR
DIFFERENCES IN LONGITUDINAL POSITIONING OF THE CENTER...WITH THE
GFS FARTHER EAST AND ECMWF FARTHER WEST. TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH WOULD BRING MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SYSTEM SHOULD BE
WARM...SO IMPACT TO TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...THE
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...WITH MODELS HINTING AT THE NEXT WINTER WEATHER STORM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EXIT TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DRY
OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. DOWNSLOPING WIND OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL
LEAD TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THUS RH VALUES. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO A
STRONG DRY SLOT AT THE MID LEVELS. MELTING SNOW WILL PROVIDE SOME
PROBLEMATIC RH FORECASTING THROUGH SATURDAY...PERHAPS SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH THE DRY SLOT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
PACIFIC WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT
SHOULDNT PROVIDE MOISTURE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AND LEAD TO POOR VENTILATION RATES.


A HIGH OVER LOW BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN US DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING PATTERN SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST MOVES NORTHWARD.
SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD FLOW OVER THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS FAVORING THE WEST BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE AT THIS
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GFS/ECMWF. WARMER TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GETTING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIODS. VENTILATION SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BUT REALLY
DEPENDS ON HOW THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. LOOK FOR SOME VARIATION IN THE
MAX VENT RATES AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SC/SE/EC AREAS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CIGS/VIS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A RETURN TO LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING DUE TO
CLEARING/RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE AND A STRONG RADIATION
INVERSION. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WOULD BE AT TCC/ROW. FG/BR
DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF FMN LATE TONIGHT AND
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITE ONCE THE EAST DRAINAGE WINDS
DEVELOP. THIS WOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  14  42  16  46 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................   4  36   6  42 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................   5  35  10  42 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................   6  44  10  47 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................   5  39  11  46 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................   4  41   8  46 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  10  39  16  48 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  18  48  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  -6  32   3  38 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................   8  35  14  40 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................   9  35  15  41 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  -6  33   4  38 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  -2  30  11  35 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE...................... -14  33  -3  39 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  -4  37   7  40 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................   1  37  11  44 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  11  38  20  45 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  12  36  17  40 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  11  39  16  43 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  16  39  18  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  18  43  21  48 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  13  45  15  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  15  41  17  48 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  16  43  19  49 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  16  40  20  47 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  18  44  22  49 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  11  36  18  43 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  10  36  17  43 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............   5  35  13  41 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................   9  33  17  38 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................   7  36  14  44 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  11  37  17  46 /  10   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  14  35  24  46 /  30   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................   8  37  13  43 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................   2  41  14  47 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................   2  39  13  46 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................   9  41  15  45 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  13  43  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................   9  40  20  45 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................   8  41  20  48 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................   7  40  15  44 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  11  40  18  47 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  14  37  21  45 /  20   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  14  37  20  47 /  20   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  11  39  20  47 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  15  38  17  49 /  20   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  11  37  15  43 /  30   0   0   0
ELK.............................  14  37  19  46 /  40   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521>524-526-533>540.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ525.

&&

$$

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