Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 190046
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
646 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO TONIGHT`S AND EARLY SUNDAY
FORECAST TO INCLUDE FOG AND PROLONG THE THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FIRST CIRCULATION IS EXITING NORTHEAST NM...BUT ON ITS HEELS IS
ANOTHER TROUGH...CURRENTLY INDUCING SOME CONVECTION IN AZ THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION EASTWARD INTO NM OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SUCH AS LIFTED INDEX AND CAPE SEEM SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
THUNDER GOING...EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...COOL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND OVER PARTS OF
THE PECOS VALLEY HAVE KEPT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS QUITE SMALL...AND
THUS SOME BATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH IN THE FORMATION OF FOG AS IT IS WITH
THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF OF THE SURFACE...BUT
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION IN THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD TO BE ON
THE CAUTIOUS SIDE. NEW FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE SENT OUT
MOMENTARILY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...551 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW EXITING INTO TX PANHANDLE WITH MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD SHORT LIVED TSTMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND ERN NM. SECOND
UPPER LOW TO DEVELOP OVER FAR SW AZ WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS INTO WRN AND SRN NM. THIS LOW WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL ELY
WINDS ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL NM...WITH A CONTINUING LIGHT TO AT
TIMES MODERATE EAST WIND INTO THE RGV THROUGH 19/12Z. HIGHER
TERRAIN BECOMING OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS 19/04Z-06Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 19/15Z
BEFORE LIFTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...249 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
THEN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACTED THE STATE OVERNIGHT
AND TODAY. IT WILL EXIT NM TONIGHT WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES AIM
AT US FROM THE WEST. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND
WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN BAJA CA ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST
TX FROM NOW THROUGH TUESDAY. THE THIRD AND FINAL STORM WILL COME
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN AS IT PASSES TO OUR
EAST. BUT THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM ON SATELLITE CROSSED NM LAST NIGHT AND
TODAY...ITS OVER NORTHEAST NM NOW. A NICE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVERNIGHT AND IS JUST NOW EXITING
NORTHEAST NM. THE RAIN AND CLOUDS HAVE HELD DOWN TEMPERATURES IN
THE EAST...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S SO FAR. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH OTHER
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS WILL SURVIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

STORM NUMBER TWO WILL CRAWL SOUTHEAST INTO SONORA SUNDAY. WE WILL
GET AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT...WITH THE BEST SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. A SIMILAR STORY
FOR MONDAY AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW REACHES NORTHEAST MEXICO.

THE LOW WILL BE HARD TO FIND BY TUESDAY...PROBABLY OVER WEST TX.
MEANWHILE THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE WITH A
STRENGTHENING TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE WEEK. WHILE THE ABOVE
MENTIONED TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR EAST THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR WEST. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH SHOULD WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
OVER NM LATE NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
IN THE EAST ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY BUT DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND. MILD TO WARM DAYS AND COOL
NIGHTS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAX VENT RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE VARIED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK BUT GENERALLY AVERAGE FAIR AT BEST FOR A VAST MAJORITY
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ESPECIALLY VALLEY LOCALES.
SIMILAR TO TODAY... PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND EASTERN PLAINS WILL
HAVE A WINDOW SUNDAY PM WHEN VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD IF NOT VERY
GOOD OWING TO ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS. SIMILARLY ON MONDAY...A
POCKET OF DEEPER MIXING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO...AND SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS MAY YIELD VERY GOOD VENT
RATES WITH FAIR TO GOOD CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE WEST AND
EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN CONCERN RELATED TO VENTILATION RATES WILL
COME LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST AND LOOKS TO STRONGLY DOMINATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND RESULTING IN STRONG INVERSIONS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT
CONDITIONS.

COMPACT LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR AREAS OF WETTING PRECIP SINCE LATE
FRIDAY WILL EXIT THE NORTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS WILL
THE FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING THOUGH WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL.  LOOKING AHEAD...A BAGGY LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY BRIEFLY
BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO. ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER WC/SW AREAS. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY EDGE EASTWARD BUT REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDERLAND MONDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO CA...KEEPING BEST CHANCES OF WETTING
PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MOST ACTIVE/UNSETTLED PERIOD WILL
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL TUE/WED WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED KICKER TROUGH
SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW.  DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO
EAST ON THU. KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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