000
FXUS65 KABQ 111525 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
925 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO ADD A MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS FOR THIS MORNING AND INCREASE AFTERNOON POPS
SLIGHTLY FOR THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN ABQ. ALSO
DECREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SANDIA/MANZANOS
DIRECTLY OVER ABQ LATER TODAY. MODIFIED MORNING KABQ SOUNDING
STILL PRODUCES SURFACED BASED CAPES OF ~700 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES OF -2.5C. SO...STORMS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS...
WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE. NEED TO
GET TO AT LEAST 68 DEGREES HERE AT KABQ TO REALIZE THIS
POTENTIAL...CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR 72.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...544 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT A BIT LESS CONVECTION TODAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. CELLS WILL
AGAIN MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
FOOTHILLS...AND ALSO THE NORTHEAST WHERE A WEAK BACK D00R COLD
FRONT WILL SET UP. SOME MICROBURSTS WILL BE WET AND SOME WILL BE
DRY. ERRATIC SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WILL JUST CARRY VCSH IN KLVS...KSAF AND
KABQ OTHERWISE NO CONVECTION MENTIONED IN TAF SITES. 40

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 AM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013...
RECYCLE MODE SHOULD BE IN FULL SWING TODAY AFTER YESTERDAYS ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEWPOINTS REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 30S AND
40S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL THIS MORNING. THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO
THE AREA TODAY...REMAINING/RECYCLED MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...
WHICH SHOULD DRIFT WEST OR SWWD THIS AFTN AND EVE. LIKE
YESTERDAY...COULD SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCING SOME GRAUPEL OR SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

UNFORTUNATELY...IT SEEMS LIKE MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH
THE DRY AIR INTRUSION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW CEASING...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL QUICKLY
DWINDLE. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR SUN/MON AFTN/EVE AS A RESULT.

THE LARGER SCALE PICTURE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD HAS THE CLOSED
LOW...NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO....TO STAY THERE WHILE AN UPPER HIGH
BUILDS IN NORTH OF IT AND INTO NM.  WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING AND
CLOUDS/PRECIP DECREASING...TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
MID MAY NORMALS BY MONDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO...A BRIEF
INCREASE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE EAST...THOUGH THIS
INCREASE IS MINOR AT BEST. AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...A BACK DOOR FRONT
WILL WORK INTO EASTERN NM...WHILE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NM. BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER NM.
GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE AFTER THIS POINT...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING DRY
W/SW FLOW FRIDAY WITH THE DRYLINE WELL TO THE EAST OF NM....WHILE
THE GFS DRAWS UP QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE.  THOUGH THE LATTER WOULD
BE NICE...NOT QUITE READY TO BUY INTO THAT SCENARIO JUST YET. STAY
TUNED.

34

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A DECENT DAY OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY...
MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND AND
RECYCLING OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
BEGINS TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OR SO...THEN CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING SOME OVER THE WEST.
THE DRY INTRUSION APPEARS TO BE MODERATE IN STRENGTH BUT WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE MTNS WITHIN THE STRONGER
PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IN THE WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL
BE TOUGHER TO FORECAST IN THE EAST DUE TO SOME SORT OF WEAK BACK
DOOR FRONTAL SURGE THERE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST THIRD TODAY AND NEARLY
ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD. THE
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT BOTH DAY OF THIS
WEEKEND OWING TO HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY BUT BECOME
NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY. HAINES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ON SATURDAY BUT BUMP UP TO A 5 RATING ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. WIND WILL BE UNUSUALLY LIGHT WITH A
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL FREE AIR WIND DEPICTED BY THE MODELS AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BUILDING RIDGE. WETTING RAIN LOOKS TO BE VERY
LIMITED SO EXPECT THE DRIER VARIETY OF STORMS WITH A SMALL FOOTPRINT
OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. THE ACTIVITY WOULD FAVOR THE WEST AND
CENTRAL MTNS ON SATURDAY AND DWINDLE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY.

MODELS VERY UNIFORM IN THEIR THINKING FOR MONDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH A HIGH OVER LOW BLOCKING PATTERN.
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER MEXICO
WITH THE HEART OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SHOULD EXPAND MORE AND INTENSIFY. THIS
WILL RELATE TO EVEN LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES FAVORING THE NORTH. SOME SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITY READINGS SHOULD SHOW UP BY THIS POINT IN THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME LOWERING TO VENT RATES DUE TO THE
UPPER RIDGE BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL COME IN HIGHER AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THAT MONDAY TIME FRAME. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LOW LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE SOME STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PRIMARILY
THE CENTRAL MTNS ON TUESDAY AND ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOST LIKELY THE DRIER VARIETY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD EFFECT THE EASTERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST GETS MORE MUDDLED FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. GENERAL
IDEA WILL BE A BUILDING RIDGE FOR THURSDAY THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH. GFS WANTS TO
DEVELOP SOME DRY LINE ACTION THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHILE THE EUROPEAN KEEPS THE STORMS IN TEXAS. WE WILL CARRY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL
AS A WEST COAST TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY AND CROSSES THE STATE NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER SOME DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE RH
VALUES INCREASE. BREEZES WILL LIKELY PICK UP AS WELL. CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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