Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 121745
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE SE PLAINS NEAR
KCVN...BUT CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE THRU THE EARLY AFTN HOURS.
OTHERWISE...VIS SATELLITE SHOWING CU STARTING TO BUBBLE ACROSS
MOST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. THOUGH ISOLD/SCT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST OF THE MTS...THE MOST PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD STORMS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM...GENERALLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR
SW TODAY...KGUP AND KFMN ARE FAVORED FOR IMPACT BY TS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT ABQ/AEG/SAF...BUT KEPT VCTS MENTION. A BOUNDARY
NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER ACROSS THE NE WILL ALSO BE A FAVORED AREA
FOR CONVECTION TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE REINFORCED AND PUSHED
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM THAT THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL MAKE IT TO KLVS. LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE EC/SE
PLAINS AGAIN TONIGHT.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MINOR TO SIGNIFICANT EBBS AND PEAKS OF CONVECTION COVERAGE OVER
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST SIGNIFICANT PEAKS WILL BE DUE MAINLY TO
2 TO 3 BACK DOOR FRONTS WHICH WILL INCREASE CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE FIRST MOST LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO MONDAY FOR ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM.
THE NEXT ONE MAY ARRIVE IN EAST NM LATER TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
PERIOD. SOME COOLING BEHIND EACH FRONT...MAINLY EAST HALF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR INTRUSION ALOFT ACROSS A GOOD PART OF E NM HAS SLOWED
ITS WESTWARD ADVANCE AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
EASTERLY WAVE COMING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO IS PUTTING THE SQUEEZE
ON THE DRY SLOT. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ACROSS SE NM...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND BRUSH A GOOD PORTION OF SAME
IN LOW POPS. THETA E RIDGE EASES BACK WEST SOME THIS AFTN COMPARED
TO FRI...ESPECIALLY TO S OF INTERSTATE 40. THAT MAY REDUCE
COVERAGE SLIGHTLY THERE TODAY COMPARED TO FRI. SERIES OF BACK DOOR
FRONTS TO MAKE THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN BETWEEN LATER SUN AND MON
FOLLOWER BY ONE OR POSS 2 MORE MID TO LATE WEEK. WHILE THE
TRADITIONAL MONSOONAL DEEP LAYER S TO SSW FLOW HAS LARGELY BEEN
ABSENT SO FAR THIS SUMMER SO FAR...THERE HAVE BEEN THE BACK DOOR
LOW LVL MOISTURE SURGES DUE TO EAST TO WEST FRONTAL PASSAGES AND
A FEW MODEST AND NOT TERRIBLY DEEP MOISTURE INPUT FROM THE S THAT
HAVE ESTABLISHED A CONNECTION OF SORTS BETWEEN THE TRUE MONSOON
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE LARGELY
BACK DOOR FRONTAL RELATED MOISTURE SURGES ACROSS NM. THIS TREND
LOOKS TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH THOSE AFOREMENTIONED BACK
DOOR FRONTAL SURGES. THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY WAVE WILL
ESTABLISH A FAIRLY SHORT LIVED WEAKNESS BETWEEN WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TO OUR EAST AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NW. THE LATTER ALONG WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND EXPANSIVE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL HELP DRIVE THE
FIRST TWO BACKDOOR FRONTS INTO THE STATE BETWEEN SUN AND WED
NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR FRONTS AND COOL SOME
BEHIND THEM...MOST NOTICEABLY ACROSS E HALF OF NM. THE FIRST FRONT
NOT BEING HANDLED AS BULLISHLY BY THE GFS AS MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS...BUT HOPEFULLY CONVECTION IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND IT
WILL HELP PUSH IT THROUGH GAPS IN CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH THE SECOND ONE NEAR MIDWEEK.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR A DOWNTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY AS THE RING OF DRYING AND SUBSIDING AIR MOVES OVERHEAD FROM
THE PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF NM. THE DRY
INTRUSION WILL SHIFT THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWESTWARD
LEAVING LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FAVORED
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS. SPOTTIER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF I40.

THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SUNDAY AS A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERLY WAVE. FURTHER...THE
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL RE-ESTABLISH OVER NV BY
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES AND
SOUTHEASTERLIES OVER NM. THIS MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WHILE PERTURBATIONS CROSS
IN NW FLOW ALOFT...KEEPING A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING STORMS IN
THE FORECAST AREAWIDE.

AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ARRIVE WITH A
STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO  WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER TROUGH TRACKS SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY CROSS EASTERN NM
THURSDAY...SETTING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UP TO BE THE WETTEST DAYS
OF THE WEEK IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVEL E
AND SE UPSLOPE FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BOTH DAYS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NM AGAIN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NW AREAS FROM THE
NW...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GO INTO MOISTURE
RECYCLING MODE. AFTER NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...READINGS WILL REBOUND TOWARD NORMAL AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVERHEAD.

OTHERWISE...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR MOST PLACES
TUESDAY...THEN POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...SOUTH WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ON TUESDAY.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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