Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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820
FXUS65 KABQ 212037
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
Issued by National Weather Service AMARILLO TX
237 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will develop over the Great Basin
today and Friday causing southwest winds to become breezy to windy
over New Mexico. The low will also steer better moisture north and
northeastward over the state as it shifts slowly eastward over the
central Rockies this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms expected to
start over the northwest mountains tonight will become more
widespread tomorrow and Saturday. Western NM should dry out by
Saturday evening, with continued moisture across the east on Sunday
and Monday.  Cooler temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday
and heavy rainfall will be possible across the eastern plains, where
1 to 3 inch rain amounts may be common with locally higher
measurements. A few strong- to- severe thunderstorms will also be
possible across the eastern plains each afternoon and evening. A
moist back door cold front early next week will cause precipitation
to become more widespread while keeping temperatures cool.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The strengthening southwest flow aloft should cause the strongest
surface winds to occur Friday across the northeast where/when wind
gusts could approach 50 mph near the CO border. The aforementioned
upper level low will draw a moist south and southeasterly low level
return flow over eastern NM Friday into Sunday, creating a favorable
shear profile for a 3-day stretch of strong to severe storms. Large
hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall look to be the main
threats. Meanwhile, an upper level dry slot will gradually progress
into western then central parts of the forecast area early Sunday
morning. This will limit the rain potential of western NM storms,
and it may make enough progress over the plains to limit Sunday`s
severe storm/heavy rain threat to our eastern-most counties with
better chances in the TX Panhandle.

Monday and Monday night the upper level low pressure system will pick
up speed as it exits northeastward from the central Rockies into the
upper Great Plains. In it`s wake the GFS and ECMWF depict a long
wave trough that will linger over the western US, and a gusty back
door cold front that will push southwestward through NM`s eastern
plains. The front is expected to deliver enough moisture to keep
showers and thunderstorms going mainly from the central mountain
chain eastward Monday and Monday night. A moderate-to-strong east
canyon wind will probably develop in the Rio Grande Valley Monday
night as the front and associated moisture push into central and
western NM. This should cause showers and thunderstorms to favor the
area from the continental divide to the central mountain chain on
Tuesday.

Both GFS and the ECMWF depict another upper level low pressure system
developing somewhere around the Four Corners or western NM border
Tuesday night and Wednesday, and have it tracking east out of the
area by Friday morning. Showers and storms are expected, mainly for
central and eastern NM during this period, before drying out towards
the end of next work week.

Weber

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing winds over NM the past few days serves as the indication
of seasonal changes on the horizon. An upper level low developing
over the western U.S. will move slowly southward toward the Great
Basin through Saturday. Deep layer south/southwest winds sliding
over NM with deepening surface low pressure over the Front Range
will generate windy conditions. Dry air in association with this
flow pattern across western NM will favor marginal critical fire
weather conditions through Friday. Temperatures will cool enough
beneath the upper wave Saturday to mitigate fire weather potential
across western NM. Meanwhile, moisture will slide north across
eastern NM Saturday and greatly increase the chance for widespread
moderate to perhaps heavy rainfall through Sunday. Vent rates for
most of NM will be good to excellent with the stronger flow aloft.

The initial upper wave will eject into Colorado Sunday then into the
northern plains states Monday. This will force a back door frontal
boundary into eastern NM Monday and replenish moisture westward into
the Rio Grande Valley. Yet another upper low will attempt to slide
south toward NM Tuesday and Wednesday and continue the chances for
rain and storms over the region. Temperatures will cool below normal
with the second upper wave, with even some snow on the highest peaks
of NM through late week. Ventilation rates will deteriorate to poor
or fair most areas beneath the second wave. This overall cooler and
wetter pattern may hang around over the area through next weekend.

Guyer

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Deep mixing is starting to occur across much of NM with breezy
conditions already starting at most terminals. Southwesterly flow
over mountain tops will cause westerly to southwesterly winds with
gusts BTWN 25 to 35 kts at most sites AFT 22/21Z. Mixing will
decouple AFT sunset at all terminals with clouds increasing across
eastern NM sites AFT 22/01Z. Thunderstorm activity will be possible
Friday aftn across northern and eastern NM terminals.

Bieda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  76  48  70 /   5  20  30  30
Dulce...........................  43  69  43  67 /  30  50  50  60
Cuba............................  49  75  49  69 /   5  20  30  40
Gallup..........................  47  74  43  68 /   0  10  10  20
El Morro........................  42  73  39  68 /   0  10  10  20
Grants..........................  46  77  44  72 /   0  10  10  20
Quemado.........................  50  74  48  69 /   0  10  10  10
Glenwood........................  55  81  55  78 /   0  10  10  10
Chama...........................  41  65  41  63 /  30  50  50  60
Los Alamos......................  55  76  55  70 /   5  10  30  30
Pecos...........................  51  78  52  72 /   5  10  40  40
Cerro/Questa....................  49  71  49  67 /   0  10  30  30
Red River.......................  43  62  44  59 /   0  10  30  40
Angel Fire......................  41  70  41  65 /   0  10  40  40
Taos............................  46  76  47  70 /   0  10  30  30
Mora............................  48  76  49  69 /   5  10  40  40
Espanola........................  55  82  56  76 /   0   5  20  20
Santa Fe........................  54  77  55  72 /   0  10  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  52  81  53  75 /   0   5  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  83  60  77 /   0   5  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  60  84  59  79 /   0   5  10  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  86  58  81 /   0   5  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  84  58  79 /   0   5  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  54  89  54  82 /   0   5  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  58  85  58  79 /   0   5  20  20
Socorro.........................  57  88  57  84 /   0   5   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  80  51  74 /   0   5  10  20
Tijeras.........................  52  82  53  76 /   0   5  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  81  49  76 /   0   5  10  20
Clines Corners..................  52  78  52  73 /   0  10  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  55  81  55  77 /   5   5  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  58  83  58  79 /   5  10  10  20
Ruidoso.........................  54  76  54  73 /   5  30  30  30
Capulin.........................  52  79  52  70 /   5  10  40  50
Raton...........................  49  80  51  73 /   5  10  40  50
Springer........................  51  82  52  74 /   5  10  40  50
Las Vegas.......................  51  77  51  71 /   5  10  40  40
Clayton.........................  59  83  58  73 /   5  40  40  70
Roy.............................  54  81  55  72 /   5  20  60  60
Conchas.........................  62  87  61  78 /   0  20  70  70
Santa Rosa......................  59  86  59  78 /   0  30  70  60
Tucumcari.......................  64  89  62  78 /   5  40  50  80
Clovis..........................  62  86  61  76 /   5  30  40  70
Portales........................  63  87  62  78 /   5  30  40  70
Fort Sumner.....................  62  87  61  78 /  10  40  60  70
Roswell.........................  65  92  64  85 /   5  40  40  50
Picacho.........................  60  85  60  80 /   5  30  40  40
Elk.............................  58  80  57  77 /   5  30  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

89/98



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