Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 262236
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
336 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH SNOW WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND OVER NORTHERN AREAS.
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES 8 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY...GETTING EVEN COLDER WITH THE ARRIVAL ARCTIC AIR
FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY
NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING FOR AROUND 3 DAYS NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW WITH THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AT TIMES. THEN...MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AROUND NEW YEARS EVE AND NEW
YEARS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER NORTHWEST
AND CENTRAL AREAS. THIS INDICATES THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST AREAS IS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS MAY ALSO SEE ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION END IN THE EARLY EVENING...SO THE SWING SHIFT WILL
NEED TO CONSIDER WHETHER OR NOT TO ALLOW THAT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO KEEP GOING. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO THE
EVENING.

USED MODEL SURFACE RH PROGS AND MOS GUIDANCE TO PAINT
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG OVER EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE
GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE FAVORED FOR FOG
FORMATION. ALSO UNDERCUT CONSENSUS GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES IN
PLACES THAT NOW HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND.

ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHTS BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE BACKED BY A 1053 MB HIGH IN EASTERN MONTANA.
NORTHEAST AREAS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY
NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOW TEENS ON TUESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. EVEN ROSWELL MAY HAVE A 60 HOUR
SPELL BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL THURSDAY...BUT READINGS
WONT BE AS BRUTAL AS THOSE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BE UNUSUALLY LARGE WITH SUCH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND MODELS DEPICTING SOME ACCUMULATIONS EACH PERIOD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE...THE NEW YEARS EVE/DAY STORM
SYSTEM SHOULD EASILY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW. MODELS ARE OFF A BIT
ON TRACK AND TIMING...BUT THEY DO AGREE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER WEATHER OUTBREAK FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PULL OUT OF THE AREA REST OF
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WETTING PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND NE PLAINS/HIGHLANDS. EXCELLENT RECOVERIES
EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN WHEN THE SUN GOES DOWN.

DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE
TEMPERATURES WARM. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE
IMPACTED BY A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OR INTRUSION ON SUNDAY.
TRIED TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...SNOW MELT FROM THE CURRENT SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE TRICKY
FORECASTING CONDITIONS...IN TERMS OF RH AND DEWPOINT THIS WEEKEND.
VENTILATION WILL TANK SATURDAY BUT RISE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL WIND GRADIENT ACCELERATES. STILL LOOKING AT SOME BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS BUFFETING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS...ESPECIALLY I40 CORRIDOR...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DRAGGING A CHILLY AIRMASS INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THIS AIRMASS WILL PUSH
WESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS INTO WESTERN AREAS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION/SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH
THE ARCTIC FRONT AND IMPACT THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS THE
MOST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC ENERGY WEST OF THE AREA PRIOR TO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LATEST GFS/ECMWF PLACE THE COLD UPPER LOW OVER LAS VEGAS NV
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEY HAVE ADJUSTED THE STORM TRACK SLIGHTLY
SINCE THE LAST MODEL RUNS SO STILL SOME RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.
EITHER WAY...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION PERIOD/SNOW/ WOULD BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A STRONG POTENTIAL THE SYSTEM WOULD
BE A CLASSIC SLOW MOVING/DEEP CLOSED LOW THUS WETTING PRECIPITATION
APPEARS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
WOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
UNTIL CONDITIONS CAN MODIFY LATE WEEK. HUMIDITY VALUES APPEAR TO BE
QUITE HIGH EXCEPT RESIDUAL IMPACTS FROM THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH. VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE QUITE VARIED
DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND TIME PERIOD.

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&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 6 TO 8 HRS. SNOW WILL MAINLY BE
FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST WITH MTN TOP OBSCD EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EVENING. LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
SNOWFALL WILL ALSO IMPACT SOME OF THE TERMINAL SITES LIKE
FMN/SAF/LVS AND TCC. CANT RULE OUT PASSING SH DROPPING CIGS/VIS
BRIEFLY TO MVFR CATEGORIES AT GUP/AEG/ABQ THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH LATE NIGHT CONDITIONS COULD
DETERIORATE DUE TO FG/LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT. MODELS SHOW VERY DRY
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAKES LATE TONIGHT FCST THAT
MUCH TRICKIER. DUE TO THE RECENT SNOWFALL AND SOME EXPECTED MELTING
HAVE TO THINK SOME TERMINAL SITES WILL BE IMPACTED WITH LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. TRIED TO PLAY THAT IN THE LATEST TERMINAL FCST.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  11  28   9  33 /  10   5   0   0
DULCE...........................   3  26  -3  29 /  30  10   5   0
CUBA............................   8  27   1  32 /  30  10   0   0
GALLUP..........................   7  29   4  35 /   5   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................   8  26   7  32 /  10   5   0   0
GRANTS..........................   6  30   3  37 /  10   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  11  29  12  37 /   0   5   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  16  44  17  48 /   5   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   0  23  -6  26 /  40  10   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  11  25  11  30 /  20  10   5   0
PECOS...........................   8  24  12  31 /  20   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  -1  20  -4  24 /  30  10   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  -2  17  -3  23 /  60  10   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  -5  20 -10  26 /  60  10   5   0
TAOS............................   2  24   1  28 /  30  10   5   0
MORA............................   4  25   8  35 /  30  10   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  12  30  12  35 /  20  10   5   0
SANTA FE........................  11  25  13  30 /  20   5   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  11  30   9  34 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  18  33  20  37 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  18  36  17  40 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  18  36  18  40 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  18  36  17  40 /   5   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  16  37  13  42 /   5   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  18  35  18  40 /   5   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  18  39  15  47 /   0   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  13  30  13  35 /  10   5   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  15  33  16  37 /  10   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  10  31   7  35 /  10  10   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  10  27   9  33 /  20  10   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  15  31  15  38 /   5   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  18  36  16  42 /   5   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  15  30  14  41 /   5  10   0   0
CAPULIN.........................   3  24   7  36 /  60  10   0   0
RATON...........................   2  26   3  38 /  60  10   0   0
SPRINGER........................   4  27   5  40 /  60  10   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................   3  25   7  41 /  30  10   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  12  29  14  41 /  30   5   0   0
ROY.............................   9  27   9  41 /  30  10   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  14  31  16  47 /  20  10   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  15  32  16  47 /  20  10   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  11  33  15  47 /  20  10   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  17  35  17  48 /  10   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  19  36  18  50 /  10   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  17  35  18  50 /  10   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  24  41  18  53 /  10   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  19  36  17  49 /   5   5   5   0
ELK.............................  19  32  17  47 /   5  10   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ523-527-530>534.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501-502-518-521.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-504-510>517-528-529.

&&

$$

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