Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 161205 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
605 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BANDS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY
STREAMING NORTHWARD OFF TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTO SOUTHERN AND
PERHAPS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FARTHER NORTH...SCT TO ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS FOR
MOST OF THE MORNING...AND EVEN INTO THE AFTN ACROSS SE AREAS. MOS
SUGGESTS KROW WONT BREAK OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AT ALL TODAY.
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A BROAD BAND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING NORTHWARD TO ALMOST HWY 60 AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE IMPACT ON
THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR COMPLEX AND THE LITTLE BEAR BURN
SCAR. A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THEN THE REMNANTS OF NOW TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY WITH THE
LIKELY HOOD OF SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALL AREAS EXPECT
PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
AND APPROACHING STORM FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND RATHER
UNSETTLED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM AROUND RUIDOSO TO
GALLUP. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MEANWHILE TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS SWIRLING
AWAY ON THE BAJA CA COAST AND GULF OF CA. WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES...WITH A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
WILL ADD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AS THEY HAVE HAD RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER SIZEABLE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BRING RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS BAND WILL MAKE AN
ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING PERHAPS REACHING
INTERSTATE 40. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR THE WEST.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE...BUT THEY ALL MANAGE TO BRING DEEP...RICH MOISTURE TO
NM. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST...BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE EUROPEAN HAS A TRACK JUST A LITTLE BIT NORTH OF THE
GFS AND SIX TO TWELVE HOURS SLOWER. THE CANADIAN IS EVEN SLOWER
AND FARTHER NORTH...ND WEAKER WITH A TROUGH CROSSING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY EVENT THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE THE WETTEST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF
IT HEAVY...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING. WITH THE
GFS BEING CONSISTENT ON ITS PATH AND TIMING WILL LEAN TOWARD IT
WHICH IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY TIME PERIODS.

TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY THE WEEKEND COULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE AS
WELL. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING FRESH MOISTURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY WHILE A STORM OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE PIPELINE
GOING FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WET WEATHER FORECAST IS TRENDING EVEN WETTER.  THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
HURRICANE ODILE REMNANTS...SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND BRINGING THE
FAVORED DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION SQUARELY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE STORM...OUTER
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUOUSLY STEAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. THE
FOREBODING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
CALLS FOR OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS TREND GRADUALLY DOWNWARD NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS
GALLUP...LAS CONCHAS BURN SCAR AND PORTALES. THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA
HAS A GOOD SHOT OF WETTING PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK...BUT IT MAY TAKE
TIL THE ACTUAL REMNANTS CROSS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO
REACH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BORDER.

IN THE WAKE OF ODILES REMNANTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY
TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE SW US FROM THE PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THEY DO AGREE ON THE SYSTEM DRAWING A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER A
MOIST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO SAY
WHEN THIS PLUME WILL REACH NEW MEXICO. THAT SAID...THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION COULD REMAIN
ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE GFS IS CORRECT WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW STEERING THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME OVER NM.

WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA CONTINUOUSLY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. IN THE WAKE OF THE HURRICANE REMNANTS
READINGS MAY POP ABOVE NORMAL BRIEFLY ONLY TO FALL BELOW NORMAL WITH
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A MIXED BAG OF VENT RATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION SHOULD FAVOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ508-509-520.

&&

$$







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