Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 052342 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
442 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS. EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE NW...INCLUDING FMN...WHERE
PATCHY LOW CIGS AND VSBYS COULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. LESS
WIND SATURDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 30 KT EXPECTED FROM CQC TO VAUGHN. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND GETS
UNDERWAY SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE
WARMING IN CHECK SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET AS SFC WINDS
CHANGE FROM NLY TO DOWNSLOPE WLY. VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE ALL
AREAS WITH BONE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKY. SNOW COVERED HIGHER VALLEYS LIKELY TO DROP TO NEAR THURSDAY
MORNING`S LOWS AS SNOW IS AN EFFICIENT LONGWAVE RADIATION EMITTER
AND THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING DUE TO
SUBLIMATION.

WARM UP STILL ON TRACK FOR ALL AREAS SATURDAY. A WEAK AND DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MINOR COOLING EXPECTED...MAINLY
EASTERN PLAINS. BOTH NAM12 AND GFS20 CONTINUE WITH A RIBBON OF
MODERATE NW WINDS NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IN THE USUAL SPOTS FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MTS EWD TO THE ADJACENT CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS (CLINES CORNERS/VAUGHN). THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST STARTS TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD
MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACNW DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS SUNDAY. OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM ABOUT 8 TO 10 DAYS OUT REMAINS ON TRACK. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CLIPPER LIKE WAVE WILL SCOOT OUT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. A MODESTLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FOUND ON
THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL
LOWER AND LOOK FOR THAT LOWERING BY SUNSET. A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS/RH LEVELS ACCORDINGLY.
DOESNT APPEAR TO BE QUITE A STRONG COMPARED TO THE EVENT ON THURSDAY
BUT LOOK FOR SOME WILD FLUCTUATIONS IN HUMIDITY. THE COMBINATION OF
LOWERING RH AND STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS. BUT VERY
LOCALIZED WITH HAINES 4/5 VALUES AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A LARGELY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STILL
LOOKING AT ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BUT LESS FANFARE
COMPARED TO TODAY/S VERSION. MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT VENTILATION WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE DUE
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.

A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST AND
INTER MOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS PATTERN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING. THE HEART OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF
THE STATE ALTHOUGH LOW VENT RATE IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. TEMPS WILL
CERTAINLY WARM AND LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. A MODERATE TO
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE RIDGE AND
LOOK FOR LOWERING RH LEVELS. ANOTHER TRICKY RH FORECAST DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND ATMOSPHERIC HEATING EFFECTS. EITHER
WAY...TRENDED DEWPOINT/RH LEVELS BELOW CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO A PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THIS WAVE COULD RAISE VENT RATES FOR A
DAY BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. WILL BE
MONITORING. OTHERWISE...PRETTY LOW VENTILATION RATES DURING THE
ENTIRE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WOULD REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH ESTABLISHED INVERSIONS COULD IMPACT SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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