Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 172338
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MOVING INTO
WESTERN NM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINTAINING BROAD RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 OVERNIGHT...WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CIGS AND VIZ FALLING TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...WITH TAFS
CARRYING VCSH AND VCTS GROUPS AT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIEST
SHOWER PROXIMITY. SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SHOW LOWEST
EXPECTED CIG EXCURSIONS THROUGH VALID PERIOD.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND IS
MOST PROMINENT IN EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS OF THIS WRITING. AS WHAT
WAS THE CENTER OF ODILE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS NOT ONLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. RAIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN AREAS
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD FOR FRIDAY. PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. A BRIEF
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WHEN A GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR. INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TREND UP AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MOST AREAS.

21

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF ODILE...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ARE CURRENTLY
ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHEASTERN AZ. A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS
BEEN WORKING AHEAD OF ODILE WITH THE DEEPEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PLUME WILL INCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER UPTICK IN PWAT VALUES
OVER THE ABQ FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BANDS
OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES
IN THE PAST 24-48 HOURS. THIS HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED WITHIN
CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTIES.
THIS WILL HASTEN FLASH FLOODING ONCE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS
DEVELOP. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING A
SURGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL REDEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NM...WORKING INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH AND THE ABQ LOCAL WRF
MODEL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN HOISTED FOR THIS SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. CERTAINLY HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NOW
TO EXTEND/EXPAND THE WATCH FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME CENTRAL AREAS WILL NOT OBSERVE THE HEFTIER RAINS
UNTIL THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...SO TO AVOID A PREMATURE ANNOUNCEMENT
WILL KEEP THE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NM BY MID DAY
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A HEALTHY SWATH OF PRECIPITATION UP ALONG WITH
IT ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES INTO CENTRAL NM WITH A CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE AREA LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE HEART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE THURSDAY DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

AS ODILE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVIER FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY...WORKING OVER AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO BE SHEARED APART AND LOSE MORE ORGANIZATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE A HEALTHY RETENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN A TROPICAL CONVECTIVE MODE.

FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALL EXACTLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
ODILE`S DEPARTURE FRIDAY...BUT THE END RESULT SEEMS TO BE ABOUT
THE SAME...LINGERING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER EASTERN NM. THUS...POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT MORE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE REDUCING POPS
SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST. SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY
AND INSOLATION COULD LEAD TO A DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE DECREASING IN THE WEST. SOME STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PERIOD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO GROW MUCH
DUE TO A LACK OF CONTINUITY FROM MODELS. IN RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS THE WEST COAST TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
TRANSFORMING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE PACIFIC. TODAY`S SOLUTIONS CLOSE THE TROUGH INTO A
LOW AND SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUBSTANTIALLY...BUT KEEP IT
COMING INTO CA/NV. THIS COULD IMPACT THE STEERING OF MORE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. A COLD FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO
ENTER FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS BOUNDARY
COULD BE LARGELY DICTATED BY PROGRESSION OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING THE REMAINS OF ODILE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EXITING THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ECMWF MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S SLOWER MOVEMENT AS THE
WEAKENING CIRCULATION LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND POP/WX FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF
BLEND.

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL/MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40/ BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTH AND EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ABOVE AVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
VARY FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BORDER
TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SATURDAY...BUT START TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. MODELS ALSO
CARRY POLO TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SO WHILE THE PROGNOSIS
IS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OVERALL DIMINISHED FROM WHAT IT PRESENTLY IS. HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL LOWER A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS BUT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO POOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THURSDAY...BUT MUCH IMPROVED FRIDAY AS FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.  THEREAFTER POCKETS OF
FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL PREVAIL OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$

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