Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 022205
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A VIGOROUS
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RAPIDLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS. THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE COMPRISED OF
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS POISED TO IMPACT WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THE CURRENT FRONTAL POSITION SHOWS
UP PRETTY DISTINCTLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. A NARROW BUT INTENSE
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS DECREASING RAPIDLY AS THE
FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST. BASED ON THE LATEST TREND...QPF NUMBERS
AND SNOW LEVELS IMPACTS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A WATCH. WILL
EXPAND AND INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ZONE AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HAVE SOME ADVISORY AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SANDIA/SACRAMENTO/GILA REGION BUT
IMPACT WOULD BE SMALL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
ADVECTION THERE...AT LEAST MERRYING UP WITH THE HIGHER QPF PERIOD.
GROUND TEMPS CURRENTLY PRETTY WARM ALONG THE DIVIDE BETWEEN GALLUP
TO GRANTS SO ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADWAYS SHOULD BE TEMPERED
THERE. DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE ZONE 506 AS A RESULT OF THAT. LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SLUSH/WET SNOW FOLLOWED BY
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING TEMPS. AT THIS TIME...THE TEMP GRIDS DO NOT
REFLECT SIGNIFICANT LOWERING TO WARRANT FLASH FREEZING FOLLOWING
THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION BUT WORTH WATCHING FOR. FLASH FREEZING
IS MORE POSSIBLE ACROSS 504 AND 503 ZONES DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS
THERE NOW. WILL KEEP THE CHAMA ZONE...510 UNDER THE WARNING DUE TO
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF SNOWFALL THERE...ALBEIT HIGHER UP ON THE
SLOPES. WSW WILL GO THROUGH 5 PM TUE FOR BOTH SEGMENTS ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE LATER SHIFTS DROP THE HIGHLIGHTS PRIOR TO 5 PM. THE MAIN
LIFT/QPF DYNAMICS WILL BE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING
TUESDAY.

WILL ALLOW THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM. LOOKS
SOLID. ABQ SUNPORT HAS OBSERVED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH DESPITE
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER. WSW WILL BE OUT WITHIN 30 MINUTES.

RESIDUAL SNOW IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER OROGRAPHIC AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW TWO DISTINCT BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH UNORGANIZED SOMEWHAT...DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ONE ACROSS THE NW THIRD AND THE OTHER ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH WOULD
FEED THE SOUTHERN BAND WHILE A SECONDARY TROUGH INFLUENCE PROVIDES
LIFT FOR THE NORTHERN BAND.

THE LAST OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A POLAR BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. INCREASED QPF NUMBERS A BIT...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH. THIS WOULD BE A HIGHER SNOW RATIO EVENT SO HAVE HIGHER SNOW
NUMBERS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST VERSUS WHAT WAS INHERITED. LOOKS
LIKE AN ADVISORY EVENT AT THIS TIME BUT SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING.
THE FRONT DOESNT APPEAR TO BE NEARLY AS VIGOROUS COMPARED TO THE
RECENT FRONTS.


SAGGY TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY SO CANT RULE OUT SOME
SHOWER CHANCES FAVORING THE MTNS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. CURRENTLY HAVE LESS THAN 8 PCT POPS. GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THEREAFTER. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE QUITE
CHILLY...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH MTN BASINS ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN THE TEENS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR EVEN THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST IMPACTS DUE
TO WINDS AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE GUSTY FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...WITH 45 TO 50 MPH OVER RIDGETOPS AND OPEN AREAS OF THE
WEST AND CENTRAL. THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. EXPECT A
SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER
THE STATE TONIGHT. RAIN AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STRETCHED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SHOVED EASTWARD...AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE
FRONT. BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN MTS...WITH MORE MINOR AMOUNTS ALONG
THE CONTDVD AND SOME OF THE WESTERN MTS. ISOLATED LIGHTNING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN A BIT BY MIDDAY TUESDAY BUT
ANOTHER SYSTEM IN DRIER...AND MUCH COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM MAINLY NORTH AND
EAST. THE SIGNIFICANT ELEMENT THOUGH WILL BE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
TO IMPACT THE EAST...AND POSSIBLY LEAKING INTO THE RGV LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST
LOCALES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEY PLUMMET TO 15 TO 35 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GREATEST DEVIATIONS IN THE
PLAINS. TEMPS THEN CLIMB SLOWLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT
REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE.

VENT RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AND WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT CENTRAL AND WEST WEDNESDAY. THE EAST WILL
RANGE FROM GOOD TO A FEW POCKETS OF POOR ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WEDNESDAY. VENT RATES WORSEN THURSDAY AND MUCH
MORE SO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. IN FACT POOR
RATES WILL DOMINATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOCAL COAST WILL SWING TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. IN THE MEANTIME...PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND OVERRUNNING MODIFYING COOLER AIR ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD. SFC CDFNT TO REACH
AZ/NM STATE LINE AROUND 03/00Z AND PUSH EASTWARD. OTHER THAN MVFR
TO IFR CIGS IN BR PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN AND BR WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFNT AND UPPER TROF AS THEY TRACK EAST
INTO NM. SOUTH TO SW WND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS WILL SPREAD OVER
THE CONTDVD WWD IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT. WND GUSTS TO AROUND 40KTS
WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
AFT 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  30  43  21  37 /  90  50  40  10
DULCE...........................  26  38  14  34 /  90  50  60  30
CUBA............................  28  41  19  34 / 100  30  30  20
GALLUP..........................  26  43  19  37 /  90  30  30  20
EL MORRO........................  25  41  22  37 / 100  30  30  20
GRANTS..........................  24  45  20  38 /  80  20  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  27  45  24  39 /  90  20  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  35  57  30  52 /  70  20  10  10
CHAMA...........................  23  37  10  29 / 100  60  60  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  29  41  22  34 /  90  30  20  20
PECOS...........................  26  42  19  31 /  70  30  20  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  23  39  13  29 /  80  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  19  31  13  23 /  90  50  40  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  25  36  13  25 /  80  40  30  60
TAOS............................  25  41  18  31 /  80  30  30  20
MORA............................  26  43  16  27 /  60  30  20  60
ESPANOLA........................  28  49  24  38 /  80  10  20  20
SANTA FE........................  27  44  22  33 /  80  30  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  28  46  23  37 /  80  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  33  49  27  41 /  80  30  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  34  54  29  43 /  80  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  35  55  29  45 /  80  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  34  53  29  43 /  80  10  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  35  56  28  47 /  60  10   5  10
RIO RANCHO......................  33  53  29  42 /  80  10  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  41  60  31  49 /  40   5   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  31  45  25  37 /  90  30  10  30
TIJERAS.........................  32  48  25  39 /  80  30  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  28  47  22  38 /  50  20  10  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  28  45  22  34 /  50  20  10  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  34  48  26  41 /  50  20  10  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  40  53  31  46 /  80  20  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  37  50  29  42 / 100  50  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  32  44  14  20 /  20   5  40  30
RATON...........................  28  47  17  24 /  30  10  40  60
SPRINGER........................  30  49  18  27 /  30  10  30  70
LAS VEGAS.......................  28  45  18  26 /  40  20  20  60
CLAYTON.........................  33  49  15  21 /  10   0  40  30
ROY.............................  32  50  18  23 /  30  10  30  40
CONCHAS.........................  36  54  23  29 /  10   5  20  40
SANTA ROSA......................  37  54  26  33 /  20   5  10  60
TUCUMCARI.......................  38  58  22  29 /  10   0  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  36  61  26  32 /  10  10  10  30
PORTALES........................  38  62  28  34 /  10  10  10  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  38  60  27  34 /  10  10  10  30
ROSWELL.........................  40  67  35  48 /  10  10  10  30
PICACHO.........................  43  59  32  46 /  20  10  10  30
ELK.............................  42  56  32  45 /  40  10  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-504-511>514-516.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502-505-506-508.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510.

&&

$$

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