Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 011751 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SH/TS CURRENTLY FIRING UP OVER THE MTNS. THE ACTIVITY TODAY WILL
MOVE TOWARDS AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. LVS/TCC/ROW IS LIKELY TO GET
IMPACTED BY TS. AEG/ABQ AND SAF ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
PASSING SH AND OUTFLOW WINDS. CANT RULE OUT A TS BUT LESS OF A
CHANCE DUE TO THE DRIER NATURE TO THE STORMS THERE. MENTIONED WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35KT WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT CERTAINLY CANT
RULE OUT HIGHER. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...PERHAPS HANGING ON ACROSS THE FAR EAST EARLY
TUESDAY.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF NEW MEXICO. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE SHOULD DRAW ENOUGH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED AROUND MID WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN DIVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST FEEDING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NM AND NORTHERN
MEXICO TODAY WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT SOUTH SOME WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF NM TONIGHT. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE WILL RESULT AND USHER IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL RE-AMPLIFY JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHWARD TO COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. IT LOOKS
LIKE SOME ELEVATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
FROM WESTERN MEXICO FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM FOR
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF AND WHEN ANY MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ANDRES WILL ARRIVE. GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THIS
POSSIBILITY NEXT WEEK SOMETIME.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.. A SHORT-LIVED
PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE TYPICAL CONDITIONS FOR LATE SPRING IS IN
STORE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM ARIZONA
WILL DOMINATE TERRAIN DRIVEN CIRCULATIONS AND MOISTURE RECYCLING
PROCESSES THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETTER INSTABILITY TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GREATEST
WETTING FOOTPRINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. TONIGHT
WILL SEE THE BEST RH RECOVERIES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD AND TRAPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

A LARGE SCALE DRY INTRUSION WILL THEN EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS NM AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EAST INTO TEXAS. SINGLE DIGIT
RH VALUES WILL DOMINATE CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY
WHILE THE EAST EVEN SEES VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT. RH RECOVERIES WILL
EVEN BE POOR TO FAIR FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. MODEST MID
LEVEL WINDS AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE BREAK DOWN PATTERN WILL LEAD
TO HIGH HAINES AND NOTABLE AFTERNOON BREEZES. WEDNESDAY FEATURES
SOME SUPER-HAINES AROUND THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NEARBY
SANDIA MTS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW
HOURS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON HOWEVER VERY MOIST SOIL
CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT GREEN-UP WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL. THAT SAID...THIS EVENT WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT DRYING
OUT SURFACE CONDITIONS.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES WEST FROM TEXAS.
THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION TO RETURN TO NM. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH MODELS IS WHETHER MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ANDRES MAKES IT INTO THE GENERAL CIRCULATION. REGARDLESS
OF THE PATTERN...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN WHILE TEMPS
TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL. AT THIS POINT THERE IS STILL NO REAL SIGN
OF A FIRE SEASON FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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