Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 261741 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1141 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Folks across the northern high terrain of NM will be digging out
from underneath 1 to 3 feet of snow today. The weight of the heavy
snow has led to downed tree limbs and power outages across parts of
northern NM. Use extreme caution while shoveling heavy snow and take
frequent breaks. Meanwhile, rain and snow showers with hail, some
lightning strikes, and gusty winds are likely again today across
much of northern and western NM. Brief reductions to visibility and
localized slick travel may occur with the heavier activity. Warmer
and drier weather will return Wednesday and Thursday while breezy
winds continue. The warmest temperatures so far this spring are
expected across the entire area Friday. Fire danger will increase
over eastern NM each day with potential for widespread strong winds
and areas of blowing dust by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Longwave trough axis remains over NM for one more day before
shifting east of the region on Wednesday. Sufficient moisture and
cold air aloft for daytime heating to work on for another round of
mainly late morning through early evening showers and mountain snow
showers today. Graupel showers remain another good bet this
afternoon with similar mid level lapse rates. Highest probability
for accumulating snow remains over the southwest and south-central
mountains, primarily above 6,500 feet. Any impact from accumulating
snow is expected to remain brief/showery in nature and relegated to
locations above about 8,000 feet. Isolated showers and snow showers
will linger through approximately midnight with the above mentioned
trough taking its time sliding eastward through the state. Strong
high pressure is then forecast to build in from the west for a
return to dry weather Wednesday. Temperatures warm but remain below
to well below average for late March.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 238 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A shortwave ridge will approach from the west Wednesday night then
crest over the region Thursday. Winds aloft will still be light
Thursday however a lee trough deepening along the Front Range
will help generate breezy southwest winds across parts of eastern
NM. Downslope flow will allow max temps to trend much warmer than
recent days. Winds aloft strengthen further Friday and allow for
more widespread breezy winds, but with the warmest temps so far
this season in many areas. The first 70F this year is very likely
at KABQ on Friday as indicated by the very slim spread of max
temps from the NBM 25th to 75th percentiles. Temps will be mild
on Saturday with even more wind. Thicker high clouds over the
area may limit the full potential of warming.

Ridge top winds may start cranking up Saturday night as an upper
level storm system and associated 115kt speed max approaches from
the west. 700-500mb winds from the GFS and ECMWF are already pushing
45 to 60 kt so widespread windy conditions are possible into Sunday.
A band of rain and high terrain snow may push into far western NM as
early as Sunday afternoon but as late as Monday given some timing
and placement uncertainty with a pair of H5 lows evolving over SoCal
and the Great Basin early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Sct to num shwrs with isold tstms expected again this aftn as a
shortwave trough traverses the Desert Southwest. Greatest coverage
will favor areas west of the centrl mts, with more isold activity
in the east. Sudden and erratic gusty winds can be expected with
the stronger shwrs/tstms. Activity is anticipated to diminish aft
sunset as drier air moves into the area. A regime of nwly flow
aloft will bring stronger winds to most terminals near the end of
the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Another round of mainly scattered showers with snow showers above
about 6,500 With a ridge of high pressure building in from the west
Wednesday, northwest winds increase, primarily for the central
highlands. Elevated critical conditions expand into east central NM
Thursday as winds shift to southwesterly and ERC`s climb to near or
slightly above the 50th percentile. Additionally, some green up has
started in portions of the eastern plains, limiting rapid fire
spread potential somewhat. Breezy to locally windy conditions
continue Friday and Saturday with elevated to near critical
conditons in eastern NM expanding slightly more. As an unseasonably
deep closed low moves ashore over CA and closer to NM Sunday,
confidence in a bonafide critical fire weather day for portions of
the Rio Grande Valley and eastern plains is increasing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  27  53  28 /  20   5   0   0
Dulce...........................  47  16  51  18 /  40  20   0   0
Cuba............................  44  22  47  23 /  50  20   0   0
Gallup..........................  47  20  52  22 /  50  20   0   0
El Morro........................  40  21  46  24 /  60  20   0   0
Grants..........................  45  21  52  21 /  40  20   0   0
Quemado.........................  42  23  47  24 /  80  40   0   0
Magdalena.......................  46  28  52  31 /  50  20   0   0
Datil...........................  41  25  47  27 /  50  20   0   0
Reserve.........................  47  20  56  22 /  80  30   0   0
Glenwood........................  49  31  60  32 /  80  10   0   0
Chama...........................  42  13  45  17 /  50  20   0   0
Los Alamos......................  42  26  48  28 /  30   5   0   0
Pecos...........................  43  23  48  25 /  30  20   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  37  25  39  26 /  30  20   0   0
Red River.......................  33  13  37  15 /  40  30   5   0
Angel Fire......................  35  10  38  12 /  40  20   5   0
Taos............................  43  16  47  17 /  20  10   0   0
Mora............................  42  20  46  21 /  30   5   0   0
Espanola........................  49  24  56  25 /  20  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  44  25  49  28 /  30  10   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  49  24  53  26 /  20   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  30  56  35 /  40  10   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  31  58  33 /  30  10   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  28  60  30 /  30  20   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  52  30  59  32 /  30  10   0   0
Belen...........................  55  28  60  28 /  40  20   0   0
Bernalillo......................  53  30  59  31 /  30  10   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  54  26  59  28 /  40  20   0   0
Corrales........................  53  30  60  31 /  30  10   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  54  27  60  29 /  40  20   0   0
Placitas........................  49  29  54  31 /  30  10   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  52  31  57  32 /  30  10   0   0
Socorro.........................  57  34  62  34 /  40  20   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  43  28  47  30 /  40  10   0   0
Tijeras.........................  46  25  50  29 /  40  20   0   0
Edgewood........................  47  24  51  24 /  30  10   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  22  52  19 /  30  10   0   0
Clines Corners..................  44  23  49  25 /  20   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  47  25  52  27 /  50  20   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  47  26  52  28 /  50  20   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  50  30  57  34 /  40  20   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  43  27  49  30 /  40  20   0   0
Capulin.........................  42  19  44  21 /  30  20   0   0
Raton...........................  46  19  49  19 /  30  20   0   0
Springer........................  47  20  52  20 /  20   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  44  22  50  24 /  20   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  44  26  51  27 /  10  20   5   0
Roy.............................  46  23  52  25 /  20  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  55  27  60  28 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  53  29  57  30 /  10   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  54  27  58  28 /  20  20   0   0
Clovis..........................  57  31  61  30 /  30  30   5   0
Portales........................  60  29  64  28 /  30  30   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  57  31  63  29 /  20  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  62  38  70  34 /  30  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  55  33  61  32 /  20  10   0   0
Elk.............................  54  30  60  30 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...12


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