853
FXUS65 KABQ 301709 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1109 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Warm temperatures and clear skies continue today with some afternoon
breezes. Temperatures peak with breezy to locally windy southwest to
west winds areawide Wednesday ahead of a system over the northern
Rockies. The system moves north of the state Thursday cooling
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees areawide along with a backdoor front
entering far northeast areas. Some low clouds are possible across
northeast areas Friday morning as the backdoor front moves through
the rest of eastern New Mexico. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
returns to eastern New Mexico Friday night into Saturday morning.
This moisture combined with a weak disturbance and another backdoor
front will bring the chance for showers and storms Saturday
afternoon and night. A few more storms are possible along the
dryline across the New Mexico and Texas border Sunday afternoon and
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Moderate and dry westerly flow will continue over the region today,
then back to the southwest and increase some on Wednesday. An
accompanying warming trend will continue as well, with daytime
temperatures rising above normal areawide today and Wednesday. The
positive high temperature anomalies will be greatest across the
eastern plains today and tomorrow thanks to help from downslope
winds. A lee side trough will deepen on Wednesday as an upper level
trough moves from the Great Basin toward the central Rockies. The
lee side low is modeled to deepen to near 990mb across southeast CO,
which is favorable placement to enhance winds across at least the
northeast quarter of our area where windy conditions are expected,
although speeds are forecast to remain below advisory threshold at
this time. Of note, Roswell is forecast to hit a high of 95 degrees
Wednesday, which would tie for the hottest high temperature there so
far this year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The upper level trough mentioned in the short term will move across
the central Rockies and eject into the northern and central Great
Plains Thursday. With that, a Pacific front will move through the
state during the day cooling temperatures 5 to 10 degrees compared
to Wednesday areawide. A very dry airmass will be behind the Pacific
front with single digit dewpoints along and north of a line from
northern Catron to northern DeBaca County. The trough and a surface
high over the Intermountain West will also help send a backdoor
front and some higher moisture with dewpoints around 30 degrees into
northeast NM from around Clovis northward to Union County. Stiff mid
level westerly flow during the afternoon looks to limit the
southwest progress of the backdoor front. Once the ABL decouples and
the westerly flow relaxes Thursday evening, this will allow the
backdoor front and the higher moisture behind it to make progress
south and west through all of eastern NM come Friday morning. With
the higher low level moisture some low clouds will be possible
across a good portion of northeast NM. The backdoor front looks to
make it far enough west to seep into the Santa Fe and ABQ Metros and
give a light east wind of around 5 to 10 kts Friday morning.

The backdoor front quickly mixes east and washes out Friday ahead of
another shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies.
Temperatures across western and central NM rebound 3 to 7 degrees
from Thursday`s highs. A dryline will set up just east of the NM/TX
border Friday evening. ABL decoupling after sunset Friday will then
allow the dryline and the higher Gulf moisture and PWATS of around
0.7 to 0.9 inches ahead of it will retreat west into eastern NM
Friday night into Saturday. At the same time, another backdoor front
due to a surface high on the backside of Friday`s upper level trough
will move through northeast and most of east central NM come
Saturday morning. This moisture and aforementioned surface
boundaries along with an upper level disturbance moving northeast
from Mexico along the subtropical jet will result in the development
of some late day storms across the eastern plains. Storms could
become strong to severe. Elsewhere, some afternoon and early evening
virga showers and resultant erratic wind gusts could also be
possible across the middle RGV due to some mid level moisture from
the upper level disturbance. Storms across the eastern plains
gradually exit east into West Texas Saturday night with the outflow
from these storms sending some higher moisture through the gaps of
the central mountain chain into the middle RGV sunrise Sunday
morning. This moisture and the dryline mixes east towards the Texas
border Sunday due to increasing southwest flow ahead of a Pacific
upper low moving into the Western US. There is uncertainty to how
far the dryline mixes east due to the placement and amplitude of the
low, with the ECMWF and it`s ensembles having the upper low over the
Pacific NW and the GFS and its ensembles having the low over
California. The ECMWF solution would mix the dryline further east
compared to the GFS. If the dryline does not mix as far east, a
stray shower or storm could be possible near the Texas border.
Forecast confidence on the strength of winds for next Monday
decreases greatly due to differences in the track of the upper
low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR with widespread skc prevails through the TAF period. Breezy to
locally windy westerly to southwesterly winds peak this afternoon
with gusts of 15 to 25 kts at most terminals. Winds decouple and
taper off overnight again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE UPPER RGV
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING DUE TO STRONG
WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...

Winds aloft and at the surface are forecast to trend up through
Wednesday with an increasingly hot, dry and unstable atmosphere,
especially across eastern NM. A Fire Weather Watch continues for
much of eastern NM Wednesday when a deepening lee side trough will
help to enhance wind speeds. Added the Upper RGV to the watch given
winds and humidity forecast to exceed critical threshold and the
RFTI showing critical for that fire weather zone. A weak Pacific
cold front will move through Wednesday night and bring some cooling
and limit potential for critical fire weather conditions on
Thursday. A weak backdoor cold front will bring higher humidity to
much of eastern NM Thursday night into Friday, while central and
western NM remain hot, dry and unstable with afternoon breezes.
Another weak backdoor cold front will move into eastern NM Friday
night into Saturday, while western NM continues hot, dry and
unstable. Wetting storms are possible Friday near the TX border,
with a better signal for storms on Saturday across the east central
plains. Southwest flow will trend up Sunday across western and
central NM in advance of an upper level trough/low, bringing the
potential for critical fire weather conditions while Gulf moisture
hangs on across the eastern plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  75  41  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  71  33  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  70  38  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  74  33  75  32 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  70  37  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  75  34  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  73  38  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  76  46  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  73  40  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  78  35  77  35 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  82  48  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  66  33  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  72  47  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  72  40  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  67  40  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  62  32  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  65  28  65  30 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  72  34  73  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  71  37  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  78  43  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  74  45  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  77  42  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  53  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  80  50  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  48  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  80  49  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  83  46  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  80  49  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  82  45  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  81  47  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  82  45  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  77  50  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  79  49  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  85  50  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  72  46  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  75  46  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  76  42  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  36  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  73  40  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  75  44  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  75  44  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  79  52  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  73  49  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  76  40  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  80  37  81  38 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  81  39  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  77  41  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  84  45  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  81  45  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  86  46  90  49 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  84  46  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  90  48  92  49 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  88  51  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  89  51  91  53 /   0   0   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  88  49  91  51 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  94  54  95  55 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  85  52  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  82  50  82  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NMZ104-121-123-125-126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...24