Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 171137 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
437 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Main aviation weather-related impact this cycle will be strong and
potentially dangerous winds to general aviation, which are already
developing early this morning with gusts to between 40-48kts being
reported at KLVS and KRTN. The strongest winds today are forecast at
KLVS, where a few gusts to near 50kts are possible. Winds will shift
from west-southwest to northwest behind a strong cold front tonight,
with more strong winds possible at KLVS behind the front.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...245 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to very strong west winds will be the main weather story
today as a storm system and associated cold front approach from the
northwest. Scattered showers and high mountain snow showers will
continue across the northern mountains through tonight. A few inches
of snow accumulation are possible above 9000 feet in the Tusas and
Sangre de Cristo mountains by sunrise Saturday. A colder airmass will
settle in across the state tonight and Saturday. A gradual warming
trend is expected for Sunday, continuing into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft on the increase as an upper level trough drops
sewd over the PACNW. Angel Fire Airport (AXX) gusting to 38kt at
17/08Z No major changes to the forecast with models in good
agreement with regard precipitation amounts in the northern mountains
and widespread strong west winds. Wind guidance came down a tad
across the eastern plains but still expecting high end wind
advisory to high wind criteria speeds this afternoon. The strong
west winds and warm temperatures aloft will result in near record to
record high temperatures for the eastern half of the state including
the mid RGV. Wind guidance has increased markedly for tonight across
central NM with the secondary/main cold frontal passage. 33kt
sustained west winds showing up at 06Z (11 pm MST) in the MET
guidance at Double Eagle Airport on ABQ`s west side. The strong winds
finally gradually subside from northwest to southeast Saturday
morning. A very dry airmass in the wake of this system/cold front
will lead to the coldest morning so far this autumn season Sunday.
Went with a low of 29F for the Sunport Sunday morning (which would
end up being the 3rd latest freeze on record) given the lack of wind
and single digit dewpoint temps.

GFS and ECWMF now back to bringing weak and mainly dry short-wave
troughs through on northwest flow aloft Sunday night and again Monday
night. Monday night`s trough the stronger of the two but still only
expecting an increase in clouds and perhaps some flurries in the
northern Tusas and northern Sangre de Cristo mountains Monday night
and Tuesday morning. Despite these two troughs, high temperatures
warm to near seasonal averages Sunday and slightly above to above
average Monday.

Both GFS and ECWMF strengthen a ridge/dome of high pressure aloft
over the Great Basin and points south Tuesday, folding the ridge
over NM Wednesday. The ridge flattens on Thursday with dry northwest
flow developing over NM Thursday into Friday. GFS and to some extent
the ECWMF show some hope on the horizon after day 10 with deep
troughs in the Gulf of Alaska but we`ve seen this weather prediction
model movie before.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very windy conditions will develop later today ahead of a strong
cold front, forecast to push through the state tonight. Temperatures
will be well above normal today, especially across the Eastern
Plains where downslope winds will contribute to the warming. Highs
today will be near daily record values across much of central and
eastern New Mexico. The Red Flag Warning in effect for the East
Central Plains looks on track, with several hours of critical fire
weather conditions expected. Orographically forced precipitation is
forecast across the Northern Mountains today and tonight both ahead
of and behind the cold front, with the Tusas Mountains favored for
snow accumulations. Strong winds will persist overnight behind the
front, but will gradually subside.

Much colder conditions will prevail Saturday into Saturday night
behind the front, with vent rates trending down. Warming late in the
weekend and into early next week will send daytime temperatures back
above normal areawide by Monday. A very dry atmosphere will prevail
this weekend and into early next week, with below normal PWATs and
humidity mostly in the teens.

A large and dominant ridge of high pressure is forecast to build up
over the Desert Southwest going into the middle of next week, with
anomalously high 500mb heights. This pattern will lead to well above
normal temperatures, but mostly poor vent rates due to a very stable
atmosphere.

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&&


.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening
for the following zones... NMZ108.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for
the following zones... NMZ502-505-521-522-533-534.

High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon
for the following zones... NMZ523-527>532.

High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ513>515.

&&

$$

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