Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KABQ 290938
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
338 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN STILL LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THIS NEW
WEEK...BUT WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS OF THE
SEASON WILL WHIP INTO THE AREA...LIKELY CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING CLOSE TO AND IN SOME CASES A LITTLE
BELOW THE NORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE ERN
PLAINS TODAY...BRINGING SOME COOLING FOR MOST OF THE EAST WHILE
STAYING ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
NORTH AND THE BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGING MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SANGRES AND NORTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...THOUGH VIRGA
INDUCED WIND GUSTS MAY WELL BE AN ISSUE. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR AREA MON INTO TUE
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE A FEW HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MAJORITY STILL DRY THOUGH. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WED
AND THU WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS.

STILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY FRI AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
GENERALLY SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY COOLER. FCST MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHETHER ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH THE GFS SAYING YAY AND THE ECMWF SAYING NAY. NO WAY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
NM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN GUSTY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...AND THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHILE ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST FACES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THUS...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH STILL
VERY LITTLE PROBABILITY FOR TRUE WETTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS
EVENING THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO THE WEST WHILE A
BRIEF GUSTY GAP/CANYON WIND SQUEEZES BEYOND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL CREEP UP CONSIDERABLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE
BAJA BY MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BE
JUXTAPOSED OVER NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH LOW WETTING RAIN PROBABILITIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND RH WILL BE LOWEST IN THE WESTERN ZONES AT LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE BAJA TO THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND APPEARS TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FEATURE JUST MAKING IT TO THE
BIG BEND AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INTACT OVER NM FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TRANQUIL...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MORE DYNAMIC AND CRITICAL PERIOD APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TURNS STRONGER WITH A CYCLIC LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HELPING TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NM. HIGH HAINES INDICES ARE ALSO PRESENT THESE DAYS. SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING A COLD FRONT INVADING
EASTERN ZONES WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS THAT COULD IMPEDE MIXING IN
THE WESTERN ZONES.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ALL
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SPILL INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING WHILE HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH. SOME STRONG GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40KT
OUT OF THE NORTH WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY...MOSTLY IN EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NEW
MEXICO. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS COULD INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF WHICH WILL
PRODUCE VIRGA...OR RAIN EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND.
AS THE FRONT SQUEEZES THROUGH CANYONS AND GAPS WITHIN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN IT WILL INDUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS NEAR KSAF AND
KABQ PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  77  38  77  37 /   0   0   5   0
DULCE...........................  73  29  72  30 /   0   5   5   5
CUBA............................  73  35  71  33 /   0   0   5   5
GALLUP..........................  75  27  74  29 /   0   0   5   0
EL MORRO........................  71  31  70  33 /   0   0  10  10
GRANTS..........................  75  30  73  31 /   0   0  10   5
QUEMADO.........................  72  36  69  36 /   0   0  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  79  44  79  43 /   0   0  10  10
CHAMA...........................  67  28  67  30 /  10  10  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  70  41  68  40 /   0   5  10  10
PECOS...........................  70  38  69  39 /   0   5  10   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  67  30  69  30 /  10  20  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  58  29  60  29 /  10  20  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  61  28  63  29 /  10  20  20  10
TAOS............................  70  32  70  32 /   5  10  10   5
MORA............................  67  35  68  36 /  10  10  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  76  42  75  41 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA FE........................  71  40  69  39 /   5   0  10   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  75  38  74  37 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  76  47  74  44 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  79  48  77  46 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  80  45  79  44 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  80  47  79  44 /   0   0   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  81  42  79  43 /   0   0   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  79  47  77  45 /   0   0   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  82  47  79  46 /   0   0   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  74  41  70  41 /   0   0  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  76  41  74  41 /   0   0  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  76  35  72  36 /   0   0  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  74  38  70  39 /   0   0  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  74  41  71  42 /   0   0  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  78  45  75  45 /   0   0  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  75  43  70  44 /   0   0  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  64  35  72  39 /  10  20  10  10
RATON...........................  71  34  76  36 /  10  20  10   5
SPRINGER........................  71  35  74  37 /  10  10  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  70  35  72  38 /  10  10  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  69  39  78  46 /   5   5   5   0
ROY.............................  72  36  74  40 /   5   5   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  76  43  77  47 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  78  41  75  45 /   0   0   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  41  81  47 /   0   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  42  77  47 /   0   0   5   0
PORTALES........................  79  42  77  47 /   0   0   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  80  44  76  47 /   0   0   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  86  46  78  48 /   0   0   5   0
PICACHO.........................  80  45  73  47 /   0   0  10   5
ELK.............................  75  44  70  46 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.