Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 031827
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1127 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Unsettled weather will continue to impact portions of New Mexico,
primarily the southeastern portions of the state where
precipitation will be most prominent from the upper level low
pressure system within the SW region. While rain and high
elevation snow persists in these southeastern areas today, MVFR to
LIFR ceilings and visibilities will periodically impact local
airports. Into tonight, snow levels will lower, but precipitation
will decrease to some extent. Development or expansion of some
low clouds/mist/fog will also be possible into the early morning
Sun, even where precipitation has long since abated.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...400 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper low pressure system will continue to sag into Old Mexico today
through Sunday allowing precipitation to slowly taper off from north
to south over New Mexico. Snow or a mix of rain and snow will favor
higher terrain areas of the south while a wintry mix will remain
possible over the east central. Below average high temperatures
through Sunday will be followed by brief warming Monday. Windy and
colder again Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of snow showers
across the north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of changes made in the short term. East wind has croaked
at KABQ, and precipitation has ended or is ending over portions of
nrn NM. Satellite imagery suggesting the upper low will be
suppressed southward in the next few hours as models predicting as
upper ridge builds to our west and a trough/upper low swing through
the central Rockies. Therefore, winter weather highlights appear on
track at this time although given the somewhat faster exit of the
upper low to our south forecast by the 00Z and more recent model
runs, the advisories for the south and east central may be stretched
out a little too far in time.

Highs today and Sunday remain below average but warm briefly on
Monday as a more zonal flow and sfc lee trough kick in. The warm up
won`t last for long as another disturbance and associated cold front
are forecast for Tuesday. The front will knock highs back into the
below average territory, and chances for snow showers show up over
the north Tuesday through Wednesday. Breezy to windy conditions to
prevail as well.

Winds relax Thursday as the stronger winds aloft retreat northward.
Went a bit below guidance for min temperature forecast mid to late
week given the very dry dew points forecast. Doesn`t appear to be
any major storms or even much in the way of precipitation for the
end of next week and out to 240 hrs, dry with occasionally windy and
colder weather.  It should be said the 06Z GFS has backed off the
storm system at 240 hrs which the 00Z run indicated, but the cold
front remains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Current storm system has dug further south of Mexico. Abundant
moisture will continue to flow northward and impact the southern
half to third of the forecast area in terms of precipitation.
Influence from the system will wane tonight through Sunday morning.
Humidity values will be on the higher side this weekend with cooler
than normal temps most areas. Ventilation will also be on the poor
side due to lessening mixing heights and transport winds.

The Pacific jet will become active over the central and southern
Rockies during the earlier half of the upcoming week. This means
strengthening surface winds and increasing ventilation. Humidity is
not a concern with higher values forecasted. High temps should be
near normal on Monday but cool to below normal both Tue/Wed. A
surface cold front will impact the eastern plains on Wed.
Precipitation is still in question. GFS has dug the system a little
further south meaning some precipitation potential across the
northern tier. ECMWF and Canadian models still show a southerly
tracking jet and have maintained that forecast for the past few
days. This means some precipitation potential further south. The
more southerly tracking jet is the better solution in my opinion for
the Tue/Wed period so wetting precipitation would be very possible
across the north. Either way...did go a little above model guidance
for wind speeds.

Ridging is still expected on Thursday with impacts into some of
Friday. This means lowering ventilation rates and eventually rising
temps. High temps both days would still be below normal most areas.

The jet stream is expected to become active again over the
southern/central Rockies during the following weekend. This means
some increased surface wind and ventilation ratings. Still some
unknowns as to how far south the jet would dip. Not unusual to see
the models waffle back and forth on the track this far out.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MST Sunday for the following
zones... NMZ526-539-540.

&&

$$


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