Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 221151
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
551 AM MDT SAT OCT 22 2016
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours.
The ridge axis that his been over NM will shift east of state
today, allowing some mid and high level clouds over west and
especially southwest parts of the forecast area. In addition, a
persistent surface trough in the lee of the Sangre de Cristos
will induce small areas of gusty winds across the east central
areas this afternoon. 40
.PREV DISCUSSION...301 AM MDT SAT OCT 22 2016...
The next seven days look to be warm and quiet across the Land of
Enchantment. The only exception will be Monday and Monday night
when precipitation chances return to central and western New
Mexico due to a weak disturbance crossing the state. A few
thunderstorms will be possible as well. Otherwise, look for a few
high temperature records to be broken this weekend.
Not a lot of change to the forecast this morning. Temperatures still
look to remain above normal for the next seven days despite some
brief cool downs. A few record highs may even be broken today and
The upper level high will slowly flatten and shift eastward today
and Sunday. Some modest moisture looks to creep into western NM on
Sunday which may lend to a bit of virga across the southwest
mountains, but measurable precip will be hard to come by. Otherwise,
a weak back door front will be only other feature to watch on
Better moisture still looks to advect into AZ ahead of a weak
Pacific trough Sunday and early Monday. This moisture is still on
tap to shift into NM on Monday and Monday night as the wave shifts
eastward, though could argue the moisture is a bit slower to arrive
than yesterday. Best chances for decent rainfall amounts will be
across the northwest quarter of the state, though light precip
remains possible across much of central and western NM. PWATs still
look to increase to between one and two standard deviations above
normal. The wave will quickly shift eastward and other than a few
lingering sprinkles/showers on Tuesday, it will dry out quickly and
a 589dam upper ridge will build back in over the area for the end of
The latest GFS is boasting a very active pattern next weekend and
beyond. It`s very wet scenario over NM next weekend is contradicted
by the ECMWF which keeps the ridge over the state. Sided generally
with the ECMWF for now in terms of temps and PoPs as it appears to
be more consistent than the GFS run-to-run.
A nice weekend is in store for NM. The ridge of high pressure is
moving east of the state early this morning while a nice looking
storm approaches the Pacific Northwest. Some high clouds will
develop today and tonight, but they will not have a major impact on
our weather. Highs will continue well above normal and RH values
will hover between 10 and 20 percent.
A weak back door cold front will slip into the far northeast late
tonight and then drift a little south and west Sunday. Other than a
wind shift there will not be much of an impact from this front other
than a few degrees of cooling in the northeast. Some mid level
moisture may show up in the Gila region of the southwest mountains.
Mid level clouds will increase across the west Sunday night and
remaining areas Monday and Monday night. A short wave trough will
cross NM Tuesday. There looks to be enough moisture and instability
to create showers and thunderstorms, favoring the west and central
areas. The most widespread precipitation and wetting rain should be
Monday night. Highs will lower a few degrees both Monday and Tuesday
but remain above normal.
It`s back to a dry and slightly warmer forecast for the rest of the
working week. Models then diverge on what happens next weekend. The
GFS has a decent trough crossing NM over the weekend while the ECMWF
has a ridge of high pressure. We will continue with the drier
solution offered by the ECMWF.
No significant or widespread fire weather concerns through the
forecast period. There will a few days with areas of poor
ventilation rates. These are Sunday in the northeast, most of
northern and western zones next Wednesday, the Rio Grande Valley
Thursday and the far northwest next Friday.