438
FXUS65 KABQ 271749 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1149 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Precipitation will continue to increase in coverage today across
the central mountains and westward. Meanwhile, winds will
strength across the south central mountains and portions of
eastern New Mexico this afternoon. Shower activity will linger
Sunday across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeast New
Mexico before tapering off after midnight. Dry conditions and a
warming trend take hold Monday through Wednesday. Cooler
temperatures to prevail on Thursday areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A 552dam H5 low just west of the Four Corners early this morning
will track ENE across southern Colorado through the day before
lifting northeast overnight. Rain and high elevation snow showers
with isolated thunderstorms continue this morning across northern
and western NM. These showers and thunderstorms will expand in
coverage through the afternoon hours mainly along and west of the
Central Mountain Chain. Snow levels will rise from around 7500 feet
this morning to near 8000 feet this afternoon with daytime heating.
An enhancement in precipitation may occur along a weak cold front
that will race from west to east this afternoon. Additionally,
graupel as well as gusty and erratic winds will be possible with
these storms. Meanwhile across eastern NM, strong southwest winds
will develop by late morning and continue through sunset. Gusts near
50 mph will be possible across the South Central Mountains eastward
across Chaves County. Localized areas of blowing dust and reduced
visibility is possible. Have expanded the Wind Advisory slightly to
include eastern Lincoln County and the Chaves County Plains.

Showers and thunderstorms will slowly come to an end overnight.
Winds will decrease as well, though breezy conditions may persist
especially along and east of the Central Mt Chain. A weak backdoor
front will push into northeast NM. This front combined with a weak
trough passage will set the stage for additional shower and
thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon across northeast NM.
Elsewhere, breezy conditions are expected with temperatures climbing
on the order of 10 degrees from today`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

As the upper low whisks off toward the Midwest, a trailing shortwave
will combine lift and moisture for one last round of precip favoring
the Sangre de Cristo Mts and far northeastern NM Sunday night.
Showers will diminish quickly after midnight, leaving dry conditions
to prevail at the start of the work week. Rising pressure heights
will allow for temperatures to warm 5F to 10F on Monday compared
to Sunday`s readings. The warming trend will carry through until
Wednesday allowing temperatures to land above to well above normal.
Dry conditions, sunny skies, and light to breezy winds will give
these three days a near perfect weather differential.

Meanwhile, a party of upper lows dancing along the US/CAN border
will bring the potential for unsettled weather Wednesday night
into Thursday as one dips into the Intermountain West. A backdoor
cold front will surge down the eastern plains Wednesday night,
resulting in markedly cooler daytime temperatures on Thursday
areawide. The cold front will then get a reinforcing shot Thursday
night, pushing it westward and potentially through the gaps of
the central mts. Return flow increases towards the end of the week
-- as does instability -- setting the stage for potential
thunderstorms, especially across eastern New Mexico into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Unsettled weather is unfolding over northern New Mexico today as
a low pressure system moves over the Four Corners region towards
eastern Colorado. Showers and thunderstorms will stretch from
west central areas of the state toward north central areas with
periodic rounds of brief rain, graupel (snow pellets) and high
elevation (above 8,000 feet MSL) snow. Brief bouts of gusty and
erratic winds will also accompany any passing showers or
thunderstorms. Expect mountain obscurations over northern peaks as
well. Showers and thunderstorms will decrease this evening with
just a few isolated northern mountain showers expected on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...

Another round of critical fire weather conditions are expected
across the northeast and east central plains this afternoon and
evening. Strong southwesterly winds will develop ahead of a storm
system. Humidity values will drop below 15 percent before a Pacific
cold front moves through the area this evening raising humidities
and lowering temperatures. Meanwhile, areas along and west of the
Central Mountain Chain can expected showers and thunderstorms today,
though wetting rain and/or snowfall will favor higher terrain areas.
Light accumulations of snow are possible above 8000 feet. After
today, widespread critical fire weather conditions are not expected
for the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Sunday across northeast NM. Breezy conditions are expected elsewhere
but humidity values will remain high enough to prevent critical
conditions. Hot, dry and unstable conditions are expected for Monday
through Thursday, as the backdoor cold front that was supposed to
arrive Thursday now looks largely delayed until Thursday night.
Breezy conditions on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will result in
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  37  65  37 /  60  20   5   0
Dulce...........................  52  31  62  28 /  80  40  30   0
Cuba............................  51  31  60  33 /  80  50  20   0
Gallup..........................  50  28  63  30 /  80  40   5   0
El Morro........................  46  32  58  33 /  80  50   5   0
Grants..........................  52  31  63  30 /  60  30   5   0
Quemado.........................  53  32  61  34 /  50  70   0   0
Magdalena.......................  57  39  65  41 /  30  20   0   0
Datil...........................  52  34  60  36 /  30  40   0   0
Reserve.........................  59  29  69  32 /  30  20   0   0
Glenwood........................  63  40  73  45 /  20   5   0   0
Chama...........................  46  29  54  27 /  80  50  60  10
Los Alamos......................  51  37  59  40 /  70  40  20   0
Pecos...........................  54  33  63  35 /  40  40  20   5
Cerro/Questa....................  48  34  55  32 /  60  40  40  20
Red River.......................  45  27  52  27 /  70  40  70  30
Angel Fire......................  47  26  54  23 /  50  30  50  20
Taos............................  53  29  61  28 /  60  30  20  10
Mora............................  54  32  60  33 /  30  30  20  10
Espanola........................  59  38  67  37 /  60  30  20   0
Santa Fe........................  54  36  62  39 /  50  40  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  58  35  65  37 /  50  30   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  43  68  46 /  40  40   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  60  42  70  44 /  40  40   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  40  72  43 /  30  30   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  61  41  70  43 /  40  30   0   0
Belen...........................  65  40  73  41 /  30  30   0   0
Bernalillo......................  61  42  70  43 /  50  40   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  63  39  72  40 /  30  30   0   0
Corrales........................  61  40  71  42 /  40  40   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  64  39  72  40 /  30  30   0   0
Placitas........................  56  41  66  44 /  50  40   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  60  41  69  43 /  40  40   0   0
Socorro.........................  68  44  75  45 /  20  20   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  53  38  61  41 /  50  40   5   0
Tijeras.........................  55  38  64  41 /  40  40   5   0
Edgewood........................  56  37  65  38 /  30  30   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  59  34  67  34 /  30  20   0   0
Clines Corners..................  55  33  63  36 /  20  10   0   0
Mountainair.....................  57  36  66  39 /  20  30   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  58  35  66  39 /  20  30   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  63  42  70  46 /  10  10   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  56  37  64  42 /  10  10   0   0
Capulin.........................  60  31  60  35 /  40  30  40  30
Raton...........................  62  32  63  33 /  40  20  40  30
Springer........................  63  33  67  35 /  20  10  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  58  33  64  35 /  10  10  10   5
Clayton.........................  69  38  65  41 /  10  10  20  20
Roy.............................  64  36  66  39 /  10  10  20  20
Conchas.........................  72  40  74  42 /   5   5  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  67  41  72  41 /   5   0   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  73  39  74  42 /   0   5   0  10
Clovis..........................  74  43  75  45 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  76  42  76  45 /   0   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  72  43  77  44 /   5   5   0   5
Roswell.........................  79  47  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  67  43  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  64  39  71  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-126.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ226-238>240.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...52