Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FNUS75 KABQ 281550
FWSABQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR COMMISSARY...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
950 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DISCUSSION...
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN STAY HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
WETTER WEATHER REGIME ESTABLISHES. A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE BURN AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A TRUSTED
MESOSCALE MODEL SUGGESTS ONE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...THEN MORE
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP WITH OR BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRYING TO RECENTER OVER NM ALOFT...STORMS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEDNESDAY AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.
THE BURN AREA MAY RECEIVE AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS AND
FLASH FLOODING. DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
AN ACTIVE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE AREA
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECYCLES WITH EACH DAY. AFTER A HIGH
TEMPERATURE NEAR NORMAL TODAY...YOUR HIGH WILL DROP AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE TRENDING
GRADUALLY UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                       SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                       MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS
                       AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
                       AFTERNOON.
   TEMPERATURE.........MAX 70-74.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MIN 37-42 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS 3 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                       SOUTH 5 TO 8 IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                       ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL.
   TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST 9 KNOTS.
   MAX VENT RATE.......GOOD/83196 KNOT-FT AT 1700 LOCAL.
   VENTILATION TREND...POOR/37411 KNOT-FT AROUND MID-MORNING AND
                       GOOD/83030 KNOT-FT BY MID-AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                       THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT
                       CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                       MIDNIGHT.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......50 PERCENT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT AFTER
                       MIDNIGHT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MIN 51-55.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MAX 82-87 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........EAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                       WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
   VENTILATION TREND...GOOD/81000 KNOT-FT BY EARLY-EVENING AND
                       POOR/14000 KNOT-FT BY LATE-EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......60 PERCENT INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
                       AFTERNOON.
   TEMPERATURE.........MAX 59-63.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MIN 75-80 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........EAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                       SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                       ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                       THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                       EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                       AFTERNOON.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
   TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH 9 KNOTS.
   MAX VENT RATE.......FAIR/54696 KNOT-FT AT 1400 LOCAL.
   VENTILATION TREND...POOR/29506 KNOT-FT AROUND MID-MORNING AND
                       FAIR/51750 KNOT-FT BY MID-AFTERNOON.

FORECASTS FOR WINDS ARE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AND MUST BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDING TO FUEL TYPE AND SHELTERING TO GET EYE LEVEL WIND SPEED.

FORECASTER...44

$$

REQUESTED BY...5-34
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150728.COMMI.01/ABQ



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