Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FNUS75 KABQ 211620
FWSABQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR LA JARA...SANTA FE NATION FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1020 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DISCUSSION...
A BACK DOOR MOISTURE PUSH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE TODAY. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE BUT LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EVENTUALLY REACH AND FORM OVER THE AREA AS THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE EVENING. WETTING RAIN IS
LIKELY THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL TEND TO MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THE WIND FLOW
ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND FRIDAY THUS LEADING TO SOME
BREEZINESS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. ACUTE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE FOUND NEAR PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR TODAY
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                       THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE
                       AFTERNOON.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......20 PERCENT INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE
                       AFTERNOON.
   TEMPERATURE.........MAX 55-58.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MIN 55-60 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH BECOMING
                       SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 10 TO
                       15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
                       GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                       THUNDERSTORMS.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL.
   TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH 16 KNOTS.
   MAX VENT RATE.......FAIR/56743 KNOT-FT AT 1600 LOCAL.
   VENTILATION TREND...POOR/20300 KNOT-FT AROUND MID-MORNING AND
                       FAIR/56743 KNOT-FT BY MID-AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN
                       LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
                       WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......80 PERCENT DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT AFTER
                       MIDNIGHT.
   TEMPERATURE.........MIN 37-39.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MAX 90-95 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH LOWERING TO
                       5 TO 7 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25
                       MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                       THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
   VENTILATION TREND...FAIR/48000 KNOT-FT BY EARLY-EVENING AND
                       POOR/22500 KNOT-FT BY LATE-EVENING.

FOR FRIDAY
   CLOUDS/WEATHER......PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
                       MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                       AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
   CHC OF PRECIP.......20 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE
                       AFTERNOON.
   TEMPERATURE.........MAX 61-65.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITY...MIN 30-34 PERCENT.
   20 FOOT WIND........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO 9 TO
                       14 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
                       GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                       THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
   MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
   TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST 22 KNOTS.
   MAX VENT RATE.......EXCELLENT/165000 KNOT-FT AT 1800 LOCAL.
   VENTILATION TREND...FAIR/45889 KNOT-FT AROUND MID-MORNING AND
                       EXCELLENT/164128 KNOT-FT BY MID-AFTERNOON.

FORECASTS FOR WINDS ARE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS AND MUST BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDING TO FUEL TYPE AND SHELTERING TO GET EYE LEVEL WIND SPEED.

FORECASTER...50

$$

REQUESTED BY...ADRIAN PORCHAS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150521.LAJAR.01/ABQ


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