Short Term Forecast
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FPUS75 KABQ 222144
NOWABQ

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
344 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

NMZ525-526-535>540-222300-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARRIZOZO...CLOVIS...ELK...FORT SUMNER...
PICACHO...PORTALES...ROSWELL...RUIDOSO
344 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.NOW...
THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  THROUGH 500 PM...AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE PECOS RIVER FROM SANTA ROSA TO FORT SUMNER TO NORTHEAST CHAVES
COUNTY WILL EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS.  THIS REGION
WILL EXPAND TOWARD THE CAPROCK REGION IN SOUTHWEST QUAY AND
NEIGHBORING AREAS OF WESTERN CURRY AND NORTHWEST ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL ALIGN ROUGHLY ALONG
U.S. HIGHWAY 285 THOUGH POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL STILL BE FOUND
WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. EVEN MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON TOP
OF THE SATURATED CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF WITH HIGH
FLOWS CONTINUING IN ARROYOS...DRAWS...AND SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS
THAT FEED THE PECOS RIVER.

$$

NMZ501>511-516-517-222300-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAMA...CUBA...DULCE...EL MORRO...
ESPANOLA...FARMINGTON...GALLUP...GLENWOOD...GRANTS...LOS ALAMOS...
QUEMADO...TAOS
344 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.NOW...
THROUGH 500 PM....SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY TRACK TOWARD THE EAST OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.  MOVEMENT WILL
GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME COMMUNITIES
IMPACTED BY STORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO JEMEZ PUEBLO...MARQUEZ...CUBERO...ACOMA PUEBLO...FENCE
LAKE AND LUNA.  RAINFALL RATES WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
INCH IN AN HOURS TIME WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF
SPATS OF HAIL UP TO DIME SIZED. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DOT THE LANDSCAPE OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON PRODUCING BRIEF BURSTS OF
RAINFALL UP TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH.

$$

NMZ512>515-527>534-222300-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-GUADALUPE COUNTY-HARDING COUNTY-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-QUAY COUNTY-
RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
UNION COUNTY-WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGEL FIRE...MORA...CAPULIN...CLAYTON...
CONCHAS...LAS VEGAS...PECOS...CERRO/QUESTA...RATON...SPRINGER...
RED RIVER...ROY...SANTA ROSA...TUCUMCARI
344 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.NOW...
THROUGH 500 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FOR AREAS FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS.  SOME COMMUNITIES IMPACTED BY STORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLACK LAKE...RATON...LAS VEGAS...
TRUJILLO...MOSQUERO...BUEYEROS AND CONCHAS DAM. RAINFALL RATES WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH IN AN HOURS TIME WITH THESE
STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

$$

NMZ518>524-222300-
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANTA FE METRO AREA-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBUQUERQUE...LOS LUNAS...RIO RANCHO...
CLINES CORNERS...GRAN QUIVIRA...MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST...TIJERAS...SANTA FE...SOCORRO
344 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.NOW...
THROUGH 500 PM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE WITH A GENERAL MOVEMENT TOWARD
THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THE STRONGER AND BETTER DEVELOPED STORMS
WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST RIO RANCHO...TOHAJILEE...AND LAGUNA PUEBLO AS
WELL AS INTENSITY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA AND MANZANO
MOUNTAINS FROM THE GOLDEN AND GALISTEO AREAS SOUTH TO TORREON...
MANZANO AND MOUNTAINAIR.   BRIEF BUT INTENSE DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

$$

KJ




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