000
FXUS63 KABR 242017
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE FIGURING WHERE/WHEN
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR TNT
WAVE/WAA ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH PCPN MOSTLY ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SMALL HAIL IN COLD MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO FAIRLY DECENT OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
CONCERN IS OUT WEST WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS JUST TO
THE EAST OF SFC TROF OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET GOING OVER THIS AREA YET THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR SATURDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LLM NORTH INTO
ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN FAIR AMOUNT OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE DURING MAX HEATING. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL WINDS AND
DEVELOPING LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT AN MCS CAPABLE OF REACHING THE
MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE MO RIVER WHERE BEST SVR PARAMETERS
OVERLAP EACH OTHER. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE THREAT
CONTINUES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID EXACTLY WHERE THEY
WILL FORM AND TRACK IS SOMEWHAT UP FOR DISCUSSION. SATURDAY NIGHTS
ACTIVITY MAY WELL LAY OUT A BOUNDARY FOR THE SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT
ACTIVITY TO FORM ON. MEANWHILE LLJ IS FOCUSED OVER EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...BUT MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS IS WEST OF THAT AREA. GEFS
ENSEMBLE PROBS OF MEASURABLE RAIN SUGGEST DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN
EAST...BUT SREF IS FAR LESS BULLISH. THEREFORE FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT ON THE DETAILS OF THE PCPN FORECAST. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THE IDEA OF AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR NOW WILL BE AOA NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST
TIME PERIOD OCCURRING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE TERMINALS OF KABR/KATY. ALL TERMINALS WILL BEGIN
TO SEE A LOWERING OF CLOUD COVER TO MVFR RANGE LATER THIS EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING TO BELOW 10 MPH.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BUFFALO-
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
     LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN