000
FXUS63 KABR 210528 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AXIS OF SHOWERS HAS SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A BREAK FOR COUNTIES WEST OF ABERDEEN. THIS BREAK
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS RADARS UPSTREAM IN NORTH DAKOTA ARE QUITE
ACTIVE...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL. HRRR AND RUC
GUIDANCE PIVOTS THIS MOISTURE BACK OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTS WELL INTO TUESDAY. MOST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN ABLE TO
HANDLE THE MOISTURE THUS FAR...WITH A FEW SPOTS REPORTING RISING
WATER IN DITCHES/CREEKS BUT NOT MUCH IMPACT OTHERWISE. SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THEN A QUARTER INCH ARE HIGHEST ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN MISSOURI RIVER COUNTIES...AN AREA THAT HAS NOT
RECEIVED MUCH DROUGHT RELIEF THIS SPRING...AND THUS THINK THAT AREA
CAN HANDLE THE ADDITIONAL 1/2 INCH OF RAIN. SOILS FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST MAY BE LESS FORGIVING AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR WATER ISSUES.

AS THE STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST TUESDAY...LIFT WEAKENS
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT RESULTING IN LOWER PROBABILITY FOR
PRECIPITATION AND QPF. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL AND CHANGE LITTLE THANKS TO CLOUD COVER.



.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...A DECAYING UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE
REGION WILL BE SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.
CONTINUED WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK TROWALESQUE
FORCING/LIFT WILL KEEP POPS/RAIN SHOWERS MENTION GOING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY FORECAST
PERIODS WHILE A TRANSIENT HIGH-AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WORKS THROUGH THE REGION.

BY FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW IS IN FULL SWING AND POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKE THEIR RETURN TO THE FORECAST AS MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF SWRLY
FLOW...THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF TO LAST
RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE COOLEST TEMPS DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE WARMING TREND ENSUES. BY THE
WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO CLIMO NORMAL.





&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR LEVELS WITH THE
RAINFALL. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL AFFECT KPIR
AND KMBG.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN