000
FXUS63 KABR 141733 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. TWEAKED TEMPS A
BIT FOR TODAY TO REFLECT QUICK RISES THIS MORNING. RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE CAA. WINDS ARE
INCREASING IN THE WEST THIS MORNING. THIS INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE EAST BY NOON.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE ARE A FEW CHALLENGES DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AND WILL ADDRESS EACH BELOW.

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE THE FIRST CHALLENGE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. FAIRLY GOOD PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE RH VALUES IN THE
TEENS BY THIS AFTERNOON. RED FLAG WARNING HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED...WILL ALSO ADD A WIND ADVISORY AS WELL.

MODELS SUGGEST ACCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE I-90 CORRIDOR. HAVE ADDED
SCHC POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA FOR NOW.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES...WITH WEAK ML-CAPE VALUES. BASED ON THE
SHEAR/CAPE VALUES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE AS SEVERAL WAVES OF
ENERGY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OR PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THE GFS IS
QUITE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE LOW...AND THEREFORE KEEPS MORE
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
ALLBLEND FOR POPS...RESULTING IN ANYWHERE FROM SCHC TO HIGH CHC
POPS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN MORE SO SATURDAY
NIGHT...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW. WILL THEN
SEE A BIT OF A COOLING TREND THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER
AND OFF AND ON PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION OCCUR. GENERALLY LOOKING
AT HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
SUNDAY...AND IN THE 60S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH LIKELY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT...A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-PRAIRIE COTEAU-RED RIVER
     VALLEY-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI
     COTEAU.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DAY-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN