000
FXUS63 KABR 132011
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
311 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE FIRE WEATHER. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET. WAA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING PUSHING H85 TEMPS UP TO AROUND +24C. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR 60 IN MOST SPOTS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGHS FOR TUESDAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING...REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH IN THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL AS CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE MID TEENS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH AS 40 KT WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR PART OF THE REGION...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS WOULD BE IN ADDITION TO THE PROBABILITY OF
UPGRADING THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH LIGHTER AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE DAKOTAS.



.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A BROAD SFC LOW OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE AS THE GULF OPENS UP. ITS LIKELY MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE A
BIT TOO HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND BUT MAY NOT BE OVER-ESTIMATING QUITE
AS MUCH AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS GIVEN THE UPCOMING
SYNOPTIC SETUP. GENERALLY ACCEPTED ALLBLEND POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
JUST SOME PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-PRAIRIE COTEAU-RED RIVER
     VALLEY-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI
     COTEAU.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-PRAIRIE COTEAU-
     RED RIVER VALLEY-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER
     MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN