Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
034 FXUS63 KABR 081546 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1046 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms across east central SD late this afternoon through mid evening. Large hail (1 inch) and strong winds (60 mph gusts) are the main threats. - Showers linger into Thursday before cutting off from north to south Thursday afternoon. - Near to slightly below average temperatures can be expected through Thursday. Above average temperatures are looking likely over the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1043 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Made some minor adjustments to sky conditions across the CWA to better align with satellite trends. Lighter winds across the region today compared to yesterday, along with warmer temps. Will monitor shower and thunderstorm development later this afternoon across the region, especially over the southeast CWA. There, enough instability and shear will be present to perhaps bring a few strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds (up to 60mph) and hail up to the size of quarters. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 503 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Low pressure continues to weaken early this morning with a broadening circulation. The upper low will move southeast through SD over the course of the day. By 21z a weak sfc low, or inverted sfc trough depending on the model, sets up near Watertown in the vicinity of the upper low and ample shortwave energy. These features could be the focal point for strong to severe thunderstorm development from 21z to 3z. SPC has a marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms in east central SD. Instability parameters on the NAM are only moderately supportive of this scenario, though. Bulk shear is around 35 kts, but CAPE is lacking north of Brookings - only 600 to 800 J/kg. Showers will linger into Thursday under a trailing upper trough with embedded shortwaves. However, as winds shift to the north, drier air will move in helping to cut precip off from north to south in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 503 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Thursday night, we are still in a bit of an upper level trough pattern, however, no shortwave energy is in the region. The trough continues to move east. Friday afternoon, a shortwave just clips the eastern edge of our area. We remain in a northwest flow pattern through Monday when a low comes down out of southern Canada just to our east. Once this moves east, the upper level flow remains from the northwest through the end of the period. The first half of the period stays dry and it`s not until Monday evening that the NBM starts to show some light PoPs (15-30%) across the CWA. This lasts into early Tuesday morning. The next chance for some rain is Tuesday afternoon the end of the period where NBM gives 30-35% PoPs through 1 AM Wednesday morning and then drops to 15-25% after 7 AM, only to increase back to 30-35% for the afternoon hours. Its a bit too far out to determine if any storms will form and/or become severe. With the shortwave on Friday, while we are not expecting any rain, gusts of 35+ mph are possible across the area. These will diminish pretty quickly once the sun goes down. This looks to be the best chance for higher wind gusts during the period. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s during the period and hold steady until Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight. However, vsby may fall near thunderstorms around KATY after 21z. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Wise