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000
FXAK68 PAFC 211321
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
521 AM AKDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE FRONT AHEAD OF A LOW CENTERED NORTH OF ADAK HAS MADE LANDFALL
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST...BRINGING WITH IT RAINFALL THAT HAS SPREAD
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS AREA OF THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING RAIN
AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER
THIS MORNING. TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW...A RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE
GULF...KEEPING MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP FROM THE LOW TO THE
WEST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE NEXT ALEUTIAN LOW FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THEY CONTINUE TO
PREFORM VERY WELL WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE...BUT HAVE
SIMILAR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH BRINGING PRECIP TO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY AND
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE EC IS THE QUICKEST AND MOST GENEROUS WITH
BRINGING PRECIP THROUGHOUT A MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHWEST. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE PRECIP FURTHER MUCH WEST...AND WERE
THE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE ANOTHER TYPICAL
SPRING DAY TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO SLOWLY REBOUND
FROM LAST WEEKENDS COLD SNAP. RAINFALL FROM THE LOW IN THE BERING
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE KENAI PENINSULA IN THE LATE EVENING.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE EVENING.

SOUTHWEST/AKPENN...THE WEAKENING FRONT FROM THE BERING SEA LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AS WELL AS
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND WESTERN CAPES. THE
ALASKA PENINSULA SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE DIMINISHING WINDS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT
FALLS APART. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAINING AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ENDS. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...WHILE THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY THAT THE ALEUTIANS
WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE ALEUTIAN LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING THIS EVENING. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
DUTCH HARBOR AREA ARE RAPIDLY WEAKENING...THOUGH THEY COULD STILL SEE
SOME HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS THIS MORNING. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR THE PRIBILOFS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
TO MOSTLY STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...SINCE THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT ALEUTIAN LOW FOR LATE THIS WEEK...CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST IS INCREASING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES AT MOST
AREAS OF THE MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK TO NORMAL BY LATE
IN THE WEEK...AND THEN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS FROM MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH 152
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 160 165 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DEK MAY 13