105
FXAK68 PAFC 250107
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 PM AKDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Saturday afternoon)...

The forecast remains on track, with few major changes. Quiet
weather prevails for all but Kodiak Island and southern/eastern
Kenai Peninsula, where fronts will bring light to moderate
precipitation. No major hazards are currently being monitored.

Diving into the details... most of the Southcentral Mainland is
experiencing nearly cloud-free skies under a ridge of high
pressure, though daytime heating and instability are producing
cumulus clouds in Western Kenai Peninsula and along area
mountains. Daytime heating is also contributing to gusty winds
through Knik River Valley and into Palmer, as well as along
Turnagain Arm. Meanwhile, thicker cloud cover is present over
southern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island, where a front is
presently located. The front will remain nearly stationary through
Thursday evening, leading to precipitation accumulations of about
another quarter to half inch for Kodiak Island.

By Thursday evening, an incoming shortwave will push the
aforementioned front into the Southcentral Mainland and bring a
North Pacific low towards Kodiak Island. The arrival of the front
will bring increasing cloud cover and an end to the recent spell
of sunnier weather for the Mainland. With the front weakening as
it moves north, expect precipitation to remain light and largely
confined to Eastern Kenai Peninsula. Still, a few stray showers
are not out of the question for the remainder of the area. For
Kodiak Island, the North Pacific low will bring with it a decent
slug of moisture. Expect additional precipitation amounts of about
an inch for eastern Kodiak Island, with up to about a half inch
for the western/leeward side of Kodiak Island.

The good news is that these wetter conditions won`t persist for
long. By Saturday, precipitation will begin tapering off as the
North Pacific low pivots southwards, leading to quieter weather
for the weekend.

-KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A large vertically stacked low continues to take up real estate
over the Bering this evening. Over the next couple of days the low
is expected to fill in and weaken while shifting southeastward
across the Eastern Aleutians through Friday. Small craft winds to
around 30 knots are common on the backside of the low and extend
into the Western and Central Aleutians, within general cyclonic
flow around the low. This swath of marginally elevated winds will
shrink in coverage through tonight while shifting between the
Central and Eastern Aleutians by Thursday night. Conditions across
the Bering become more benign Friday and Saturday with elevated
northerly winds only expected through Alaska Peninsula.

Elsewhere, scattered rain showers are ongoing over Greater
Bristol Bay. Shower activity extends northward into eastern
portions of the Kuskokwim Delta and stretches as far east as
Aniak. This activity is associated with remnants of an occluded
front that has now shifted inland of the coast. Showers will
remain possible into Thursday, but activity over the Kuskokwim
Delta is expected to shift eastward into the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley. Rain chances linger into Friday and finally diminish by
the start of the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures for
southwest Alaska will range from the mid 30s to upper 40s the next
few days while overnight lows are expected stay in the low to mid
30s.


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sun through Wed)...

The low that is currently over the Bering Sea will have meandered
into the Eastern Gulf of Alaska for Sunday and slowly drift south
along the western coast of North America through the early half
of the week. A ridge will likely build behind the low across
Southcentral. Embedded easterly waves could lead to brief showers
in the Copper River Basin each day. A larger, embedded shortwave
is possible for Tuesday along the ridge, but any moisture
associated is still expected to be light and or showery.

Out west, a front is moving through the Bering and across the
Aleutians. For Sunday, the front will be located around the
central to eastern Aleutians and will reach the Pribilofs before
weakening and being replaced by a larger and stronger occluded low
Monday. This low will bring more moisture into the Bering Sea and
Aleutians. Storm force winds look likely for the western
Aleutians Monday morning, weakening to gales by Tuesday. Its front
reaches the Southwest Alaska as early as Tuesday and spreading
the bulk of the moisture to Southwest, the Alaska Peninsula, and
Kodiak Island for Wednesday. Timing of the precipitation will
depend on the position of synoptic feature, the progression, and
orientation of the front. Although the overall synoptic setup is
in better agreement for the extended period, the details could
mean bigger differences in the QPF and wind fields across the
Bering and Southwest Alaska.

rux

$$



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Southeast winds 10 to 15 kts
are expected to develop over the airport late this afternoon into
the evening. Winds are then expected to become light and variable
again overnight. SE winds are also likely to return Thursday
afternoon and evening.

&&


$$