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000
FXAK68 PAFC 161403
AFDAFC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA IS KEEPING THE SOUTH
MAINLAND DRY THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF
ALASKA...WITH PATCHY FOG ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COASTAL REGION AND
COOK INLET. TO THE WEST...A FRONT REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA SOUTH TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A STATIONARY UPPER LOW
IS CENTERED NORTH OF KISKA WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE RAT ISLANDS. THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE STREAMING LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE BERING. THE NAM MODEL WAS THE PREFERRED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL TREND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELEVATE FIRE HAZARDS AND CAUSE POSSIBLE HEAT
STRESS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE WESTERN GULF WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH MID WEEK.
WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE STATE...MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM THE EAST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH INCREASED DAY TIME HEATING TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL TAPER OFF LATER
TODAY AS THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING MOVES WEST. SHOWERS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THIS AREA.
ALSO...GUSTY CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A PATTERN SHIFT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS POSSIBLE
WITH THE RIDGE CENTER MOVING NORTH. MODELS DIFFER WITH THE ALIGNMENT
ON THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...BUT WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE
TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A POSSIBILITY
FOR SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF.



.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAGS FOR 141 145 AND 151 DUE TO LOW RH <15%.

KH JUN 13