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000
FXAK67 PAJK 212229
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
229 PM AKDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SHORT TERM...A weakening low continues to push into the southern
panhandle this afternoon bringing rain showers to parts of the
panhandle. Most of the rain has been relegated to the southern
portion or offshore. For the rest of the panhandle, cloud cover
has returned allowing for some relief from the record warmth that
was experienced yesterday. As we head into the overnight hours,
rain showers are expected to continue across the southern
panhandle while slowly working northward. The chances of rain
showers for the northern panhandle remains low as showers will be
moving from west to east trying to come over the Coast Mountains.
Any places that do see rain from the passing showers will see only
light accumulations. With the cloud cover continuing over the
area for the short term, temperatures will stay moderated during
the daytime and overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...
Key Message:
-Minor changes to the forecast with precipitation chances on the
downtrend by Monday night, somewhat dry conditions return by mid-
week.

Discussion: Minor changes to the long term forecast with down trends
in PoP chances through mid week. The dynamics with the system on
Monday afternoon still aren`t impressive given a lack of upper or
mid level support in addition to the lack of any significant amount
of moisture. For now, went with low end slight chance of PoPs in the
forecast on Monday afternoon as the weak front occludes over
southern portions of the AOR with the main parent low sliding
southeast towards CONUS.

One change to the forecast is Wednesday with an aloft low system
passing south of the panhandle. Easterly flow aloft combined with
modest vorticity advection and clearing skies may lead to some
easterly showers developing around Skagway, Juneau, Petersburg,
Wrangell, and Hyder. At this time, the chance is not great,
represented in roughly 20 PoPs for the time frame. However, if these
showers do generate, then high temperatures for these areas will
likely be lower than expected.

Looking ahead, confidence continues grow that by Tuesday onwards dry
conditions should prevail, with partly to mostly sunny skies and
high temperatures increasing into the 50s & 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR to MVFR conditions expected through the TAF period with
increasing cloud cover and isolated rain chances. Winds should
range from calm up to 15 kt, especially near any shower activity.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...NM

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