Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231752 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 152 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains centered just offshore of the Southeast Coast today...as a surface cold front approaches the region from the northwest. The remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy will cross the region with the cold front on Saturday. The front then stalls farther south off the Carolinas Sunday and Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Latest analysis reflects surface cold front aligned from the western Great Lakes back into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Low pressure...the remnants of TD Cindy now noted on early afternoon VIS/IR satellite imagery lifting across the Mid-South toward the lower Ohio River Valley. Regional radar mosaic indicating some isolated light to moderate showers pushing across the area at 18z. However, latest mesoanalysis indicating a capping inversion in place across the area. Question for the balance of the afternoon is how quickly can we can destabilize that cap enough to tap into convective potential. Time-lagged HRRR and CONShort blend has done well with convective trends so far, and have leaned in its direction for the afternoon and early evening. Overall, expect mainly dry (albeit very warm and humid) afternoon across the southern half of the area, with no real discernible trigger and drier air filtering in from the coastal Carolinas. Therefore, will go no higher than a 20% POP for isolated shower or T-Storm. Farther north, cap should be strong enough to prevent much more than scattered convection through 00z. Well-advertised low-level jet analyzed over E OH/W PA, and should be far enough north to not have too much of an impact with convective potential locally. Thus, pops have been tapered down into 30-40% range over far nw zones (Cumberland, VA to Tappahannock, VA to Salisbury, MD) for the afternoon. This area already seeing a nice CU field developing, and CAMs are at least a little bit more bullish on convective development up that way. Otherwise, very warm, breezy and moderately humid this afternoon with highs in the u80s to low 90s for most inland, low to mid 80s along the Atlantic coastal zones.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Rain chances in the short term mainly confined to late tonight through Saturday night, as the remnants of Cindy get absorbed and essentially merge into a frontal wave, lifting from the Lower Ohio Valley toward the southern Mid-Atlantic late tonight through Saturday afternoon. Any scattered showers and storms quickly wane this evening with loss of heating. We then wait until after midnight, as the surface front which extends from a low in SE Canada approaches, dragging the remnants of TD Cindy across the n/NW portions of the local area along with it. The front will supply enough lift for a narrow area of showers and an isolated thunderstorm late tonight and early Saturday. Overall trend has been towards a more progressive solution with the 12z suite of models. After which, models are in fair agreement with shearing the precip apart Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Midwest will slowly dig southward and help to slowly, but steadily, push the front east across the area...especially as the Bermuda High also retreats to the east. Maintained 40-60% rain chances over the coastal plain during this period for the afternoon and evening...and into the overnight hours Sunday morning, as the front gets hung up across the SE Coast into the Carolinas. Warm and muggy yet again with highs generally in the upper 80s (lower 90s possible far SE VA/NE NC prior to arrival of cold front). Dewpoints in the lower 70s. Cooler, drier air filters in from the northwest behind the front. Lows Saturday night in the low-mid 60s far NW, upper 60s inland, lower 70s SE. Dewpoints lower 60s NW to lower 70s SE. Overall, a pleasant day anticipated for Sunday. Lingering spotty convection along the Albemarle Sound will come to an end Sunday morning with the rest of the area remaining dry. A much more comfortable afternoon and evening Sunday, with highs in the mid 80s (lower 80s beaches), and dewpoints in the upper 50s NW to mid 60s SE. Comfortable sleeping weather Sunday night with lows in the upper 50s NW to upper 60s SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold front pushes offshore Saturday night, stalling along the coast Sunday. Height falls ahead of a deepening upper level trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday and remnant moisture along the boundary will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across northeast North Carolina Sunday afternoon. Drying inland. Highs Sunday in the low to mid 80`s. A secondary front pushes into the region Sunday night and Monday. Have only kept slight chance POPs inland Monday given limited moisture. Highs in the low to mid 80`s. Potent shortwave digs into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Monday night into Tuesday with a stronger cold front pushing through the region Tuesday. Moisture return along the coast will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern Virginia. Cooler Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 70`s. Dewpoints mix into the 50`s, resulting in pleasant afternoon conditions. Dry and comfortable conditions forecast again Wednesday as the trough pushes offshore and heights build over the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure settles over the Mid-Atlantic. Highs Wednesday generally in the low 80`s. Cool Thursday morning, with lows in the upper 50`s inland to mid 60`s near the coast. High pressure slides offshore Thursday with return flow resulting in moderating temperatures. Highs in the mid 80`s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Light rain showers will continue to impact all TAF sites through the morning hours, with the potential for MVFR conditions in any heavier showers. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon, with the highest coverage anticipated over northern portions of the region. Primarily VFR this afternoon, but periods of sub-VFR visibilities will be possible in heavier rain showers. It will be difficult to pinpoint which TAF sites experience sub-VFR conditions and when due to the scattered nature of the precipitation this afternoon. Winds will also be gusty out of the SW this afternoon, occasionally gusting in excess of 25 knots. Precipitation tapers off through the evening and a break may even occur before the arrival of a cold front between 24/0900-1200Z. Outlook: A cold front will the slowly cross the region on Saturday, bringing the remnants of TD Cindy with it. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the front, once again bringing the potential for sub-VFR conditions on Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms redevelop Saturday afternoon and evening, coming to an end early Sunday. A return to VFR conditions is expected Sunday through early next week as high pressure builds into the region. && .MARINE... High pressure remains anchored off the Southeast coast early this morning as the remnant low that was formerly Cindy is centered over AR as of 07z. High pressure will prevail off the Southeast coast through Saturday. Meanwhile, the remnant low of Cindy tracks through the Tennessee Valley today and tonight, and then across the nrn Mid-Atlantic Saturday. Additionally, a cold front will push into the Ern Great Lakes today into tonight. This combined with the approach of the remnant low will result in a tightening pressure gradient and strengthening low-level jet tonight through midday Saturday. A SW wind will average 10-15kt early today and then increase to 15-25kt across the nrn Bay/nrn ocean zones this aftn, followed by a lull early this evening. Given this, SCAs north of New Point Comfort and Parramore Island will commence at 17z. A SW wind will then increase to 15-25kt (gusts up to 30kt possible in the ocean/Bay) across the entire marine area later this evening through the overnight hours and through midday Saturday. SCAs for the remainder of the area begin at 02z Saturday. Seas build to 5-7ft north of Parramore Island late tonight into Saturday morning, with 4-6ft out near 20nm north of Cape Charles, and primarily 3-4ft farther south with an offshore component to the wind. Waves in the Bay build to 3-4ft late tonight into Saturday morning. SCA conditions end Saturday as the wind diminishes and seas gradually subside. A cold front pushes across the coast Saturday night with a wind shift to NW. Sub SCA conditions are expected due to a lack of CAA, Another cold front pushes across the coast Monday night, with high pressure building over the region through the middle of next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>637-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632>634-638-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...BMD/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJB/BMD MARINE...AJZ

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