Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251539 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1039 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. AREAS OF -RA CONTINUE TO TRACK NE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC ASSOCIATED WITH AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM A STRONG LLJ AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THESE LOCATIONS AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE E...AND LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED AS THE FRONT IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...AND THESE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...AND OCCASIONAL -RA SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TRACKS NNE TONIGHT REACHING A POSITION NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT BY 12Z WED. THE 25/00Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEMONSTRATE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO LIFT OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MID- LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. POPS INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPR 40S NW...TO MID 50S SE...AND GRADUALLY FALL OVERNIGHT AS IN SITU WEDGING DEVELOPS DUE TO RAIN AND A LIGHT N WIND. BY 12Z WED TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW...TO NEAR 50 SE. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP AND FORCING REMAINS STRONG. CAA REMAINS RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL COOLING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW AND CLIMO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SN WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME A 1-2IN ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST OVER LOUISA/FLUVANNA...BORDERED BY LESS THAN 1IN. MOISTURE SHALLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO PCPN SHOULD STEADILY LESSEN IN INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT CHANGE TO SN COULD ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS THE INTENSITY WANES. OVERALL LIGHT SN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NW OF THE RIC METRO AREA. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT...BEFORE A SECONDARY CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHC OF -SHRA OR -SHSN (OR A MIX THEREOF) TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM W-E. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 NW...TO THE MID 30S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH CHILLY/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT THE START...WHICH WILL MODERATE TO ARND OR NEAR NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON. COOL HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA THU NGT AND FRI...THEN SETTLES OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT THRU MON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S SUN...AND IN THE 50S MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...AND IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S MON MORNG. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT MUCH SLOWER TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES THIS MORNING WITH THE BNDRY STILL WEST OF RIC AS OF 12Z. LIGHT RAIN ASSCTD WITH WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DESPITE THE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN...CIGS CONT VFR WITH NO REAL IMPACT TO AVIATION. FRONT CRAWLS EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS AFTN. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...MSTR ASSCTD WITH DVLPNG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SERN COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND OVERSPRD THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. CIGS / VSBYS WILL LWR TO MVFR RANGE. WDSPRD RAIN AFTER 00Z WITH RTHR HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CNDTNS IN BOTH RAIN / FOG WITH LCL LIFR CNDTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE CNDTNS CONTINUE THROUGH WED ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS (20-30KTS) ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPRCH. DATA SUGGESTS PCPN MAY END AS A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT RIC WED EVE. RAIN ELSEWHERE. && .MARINE... UPDATE...SCA FLAGS CANCELLED FOR SRN COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WHERE SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT THIS MORNING. SCA FOR NRN COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 21Z/4PM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS CONSISTENT IN DVLPNG LOW PRS OFF THE SERN COAST TDY...THEN DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND MID ATLNTC COAST WED. DATA SUPPORTIVE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OVR CSTL WTRS (UP TO 40 KTS) AND SRN CHES BAY / CURRITUCK SND (35 KTS) WED. WITH RTHR HIGH CONFIDENCE ATTM...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED GALE WRNGS WITH THIS PACKAGE (THUS A SECOND HEADLINE FOR CSTL WTRS GIVEN CRNT CNDTNS)...WITH STRNG SCA`S ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY AND RIVERS. WINDS N-NE TO START THEN SWITCH TO NW AS SYSTM LIFTS N OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. THE LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER THE WATERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT ALLOWS SEAS TO BUILD TO BTWN 6-10 FT (HIGHEST OUT NR 20 NM). SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES WED NIGHT AS LOW QUICKLY MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THU MORN BEFORE YET ANTHR CAA SURGE SEEN THU AFTN / EVE BEHIND UPR LVL LOW THAT EXITS OFF THE COAST. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... NO ISSUES WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES ATTM BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH WED DAYTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLE. GUID SUGGESTS TIDAL DEPARTURES ACROSS SRN AREAS RISE TO BTWN 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WHICH WOULD PUT LEVELS ABOUT 1/2 TO 1 FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. SEWELLS POINT MAY APPRCH MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS GIVEN THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BAY PUSHING / PILING UP THE WATER. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ635>637. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ632>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ631. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ638. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ654-656- 658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650- 652. GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAS SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MPR MARINE...BMD/MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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