Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 040558 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 158 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN STALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ISOLD CONVECTION EARLIER ACRS INTERIOR SE VA HAS DISSIPATED. SOME CLDNS FM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST W OF MTNS IN ERN KY MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE FA OVRNGT...OTRW XCPG MNLY SKC. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S WELL INLAND TO THE M70S AT THE CST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHARPENING TROF ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE. LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THIS BNDRY STALLS THEN REMAINS NRLY STNRY ACROSS NRN NC TUE NIGHT AND WED BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. THE KEY TO THE MID WEEK FCST WILL BE THE EXACT LCTN OF THIS BNDRY AS IT WILL LIKELY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR TSTMS. ANTHR HOT DAY AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION TUE. H85 TMPS SPRTS HIGHS IN THE L-M90S (HEAT INDEX ARND 100). SPC HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK TUE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR NOT XPCTD...CAN`T RULE OUT STRNG WND GUSTS ALONG WITH LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS WITH SCT AFTRN AND EVE TSTRMS. HIGH PRS TO THE NORTH PUSHES FRNTL BNDRY INTO NRN NC LATE TUE NIGHT. BCMG PT CLDY AFTR MIDNIGHT. LOWS M-U60S NORTH...U60S-L70S SOUTH. DATA NOW DRIER WED AND WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH PUSHES SPRT FOR PCPN TO THE SOUTH. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS SWRN CNTYS CLOSER TO ANY INSTAB WED AFTRN. OTW...DRY UNDER PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS U80S-L90S. LOWS WED NIGHT U60S-M70S. MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST THU. GFS AND TO A CERTAIN EXTEND THE SREF NOW RTHR DRY WITH MOST SPRT FOR PCPN STAYING N AND W OF FA WHILE NAM HAS PCPN OVRSPRDG THE FA AFTR 18Z. FOR NOW... REMOVED MORNING POPS BUT KEPT CHC POPS AFTR 18Z...HIGHEST CHC W. HIGHS M80S-L90S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UNSETTLED WX TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN DUE TO AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS AND TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON EXACT TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAIN THUR NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. DRYING TREND THEN COMMENCES INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPR- LEVEL TROF AXIS PULLS OFFSHORE AND SFC HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. AS FOR TEMPS...HIGHS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S EVERY DAY WITH LOWS AVGG IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING...TOO MUCH WIND/MIXING FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING AND WILL PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS (CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE FAR TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS POINT). THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND USHER IN SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES. WX BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED LATER THU INTO FRI AS LOW PRES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AFFECT THE AREA. && .MARINE... SCA HEADLINES CONTINUE AS PLANNED FOR THE BAY/SOUND/CSTL WTRS N OF THE NC/VA BORDER AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS AFTN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WTRS LATER THIS EVENG...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SCA OVER THE OCEAN IS MAINLY FOR 5 FT SEAS. ALL HEADLINES END MORNG TO MIDDAY TUE AS WINDS/WAVES/SEAS DECREASE. ANOTHER WEAK SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUE AFTN/EVENG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRNTAL BNDRY...BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST SHY OF SCA THRESHOLDS ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE FRNT DROPS THRU THE AREA LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW WED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. SUB-SCA CONDS THEN EXPECTED THRU FRI. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633- 656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...LKB MARINE...MAS

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