Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230735 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure prevails over the region through Monday. A weak front drops south across the northern Delmarva tonight, then lifts back to the north Sunday. A weak cold front drops into the region Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Latest MSAS shows high prs west of fa with a trof east of the mts. Models prog a weak bndry to move south to a position across central MD-DE by 00Z. Despite a lee trof, airmass appears to capped for convection to develop before 21z. Thus...kept a dry forecast today except for slght chc pops after 21z across the lwr MD eastern shore. 850mb temperatures remain in the 20-22C range (+2 st dev). The airmass warms resulting in highs solidly in the mid 90s inland. Some mixing expected this afternoon resulting in dp temps averaging in the 70-73 range during peak heating hours. This results in heat indices between 100-104 (although I expect some of the AWOS sites to report a bit higher than that). Highest across SE VA and NE NC. Premise here is that guidance has been around 2 degrees to warm past few days.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High res data in decent agreement that a shortwave trof results in sct convection developing this evening. Data has this activity mainly across the northern neck / lwr Md eastern shore before weakening as it drifts SE after midnite. Will carry 30-40 pops there with a 1-2 county buffer zone of slght chc pops mainly NE of I64. Otherwise...a warm and muggy night with lows in the mid-upr 70s. Frontal boundary weakens as it lifts north of the fa Sun. High prs dominates along with the thermal trof across srn VA / nrn NC. Kept slght chc pops btwn 18Z-00Z ivof this feature. 850 mb temps support highs in the mid-upr 90s. Dp temps progged about 1-2 degrees higher than today which results in heat index values aoa 105 (heat advsry levels) for most of the southern half of the fa. Fair and muggy Sun nite with any convection quickly dissipating after sunset. Lows in the mid to upper 70s. Monday appears to be the hottest day of this stretch with only a low chc pop across the nwrn zones late for any convection that develops across the mts and drifts east. Highs 95-100 combined with dp temps btwn 70-75 yields heat index values btwn 104-108 (heat advsry levels). Will continue to address the heat in the HWO.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front crosses the region on Tuesday and then stalls over the area during the rest of the week...fluctuating/wobbling its position over time in persistent zonal flow aloft. Temperatures still expected to peak in the low-mid 90s for highs with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s. This will generally maintain heat index values of 100-104 degrees each afternoon. Lows generally in the mid 70s each night. Precip chances finally increase to a decent 30-40% POP each afternoon...beginning with the frontal passage on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms should be expected each day. Main impacts will be strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall due to pwats upwards of 2.00 inches. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly vfr thru the 06Z taf period. Some patchy fog/haze psbl over a brief window this morng for ric/sby. Dry conditions to prevail today with mainly S/SW winds around 8-10 KT. Increased mixing should prevent any fog development tonight. Isolated/scattered tstms possible tonight at SBY, and then across southern VA and northeast NC Sun afternoon and evening. A cold front approaches on Monday and crosses the area on Tuesday bringing scattered showers and tstms both days...primarily during the afternoon/evening hours. Brief reductions in VSBYS and CIGS to MVFR/IFR levels with the storms. && .MARINE...
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All headlines have been cancelled as sca conditions have not materialized this morng. Expect a fairly stagnant wx pattern over the next few days with hi pressure centered off the se coast and weak trofs of lo pressure over the Mid Atlc. Winds will avg 10-15 kt out of the s/sw thru this period with 1-2 ft waves over the Bay and mainly 2-3 ft seas over Cstl Wtrs. The next cold front drops into the area late Tue/Tue night. Sub-sca conditions expected to continue thru at least mid week.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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While its certainly going to be hot today thru Mon, climatologically this is the hottest time of the year with several heat waves having occurred in the past that have been far more intense than what we will experience. Record highs are unlikely to be set and in most cases, doubt they will even challenged within 5 degrees. * RECORD HIGHS: * Sat (7/23) Sun (7/24) Mon (7/25) * RIC: 103 (1952) 105 (2010) 105 (2010) * ORF: 103 (2011) 105 (2010) 105 (2010) * SBY: 103 (2011) 101 (2010) 100 (2010) * ECG: 104 (1952) 97 (2012) 99 (1949)
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ

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