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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
212 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST AND
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF PRECIP DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S UNDER A PRTLY CLDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE WED INTO WED NGT AHEAD
OF A LO PRES SYSTM PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DID
INCLUDE A SLGT CHC FOR A SHWR/TSTM WED AFTN/EVENG WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS SHUD REMAIN DRY DUE TO
A LACK OF FORCING. OTW...EXPECT A PRTLY CLDY SKY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.

FOR THU...COLD FRNT APPROACHES FROM THE OH VALLEY...AND RAIN
LIKELY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND S/W ENERGY ALOFT. UP TO A HALF
INCH OF PRECIP PSBL WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN IN THE AFTN. HI
TEMPS GENRLY IN THE LO 80S. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR
THE COAST. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THU NGT/FRI MRNG AS
THE COLD FRNT ADVANCES OFF THE COAST. NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO
COMPLETELY CLR OUT...WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ALOFT FOLLOWING
THE SFC FROPA.

DRIER CONDS EXPECTED BY FRI AFTN AS FLOW BECOMES NWLY FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT. CLRG
& COOL WITH DECOUPLING WINDS INLAND. CSTL WNDS STAY MIXED DUE TO LOW
PRS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NE. LOWS M-U40S FROM I95 ON W...
NEAR 50 INVOF CHES BAY AND L-M50S AT THE COAST.

SUNNY & PLEASANT SAT WITH H5 RIDGE OVRHD. HIGHS IN THE L-M70S XCPT
60S AT THE BEACHES. PT CLDY SAT NITE AS SOME HIGH LVL MSTR OVRSPRDS
RGN. LOWS 50-55. PT SUNNY AND A BIT WRMR SUN. HIGHS M-U70S XCPT
65-70 AT THE BEACHES.

TRICKY FCST ERLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS NOW INCRG MSTR DUE TO COMBO OF
ONSHORE E-SE FLOW AND WRM FRNT APPRCHG FROM THE SW. APPEARS BEST
SPRT FOR POPS WILL BE ACROSS SRN & WRN VA/NRN NC MONDAY & MON
NITE. KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS ON TUE FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT. HIGHS MON L-M70S. LOWS 55-60. HIGHS TUE M-U70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCT-BKN CU / SC ARND 3K FT CONTS THRU 00Z. WENT WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR TSRA NEXT FEW HRS BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS OF SCT CONVECTION
DVLPNG ACROSS NE NC. GUSTY S-SW WINDS UP TO 20 KT.

LATEST TSCTNS SHOW PLNTY OF LOW LVL MSTR ARND AFTR 04Z FOR A STRATUS
DECK TO DVLP ONCE AGAIN. DATA EVEN SUGGESTS SOME DENSE FOG IVOF SBY
LATE TONITE. OTW...PATCHY MVFR FOG PSBL.

SLOW LIFTG OF THE CLOUD DECK THURS MORN. CDFRNT APPRCHS FROM THE
W DRNG THE AFTRN WITH PCPN ASSCTD WITH THIS FTR HOLDS OFF UNTIL
AFTR 18Z...SO KEPT PCPN OUT OF FCST FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK: FRONT PUSHES OFF THE CST DURING FRI...WITH LAGGING UPR
TROF NOT MOVNG OFFSHR UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. SO...THERE COULD BE
LINGERING LWR CIGS AND VSBYS FM SCTD PCPN RIGHT THRU FRI NGT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SAT AND SUN...AS HI PRES BLDS INTO AND OVR
THE REGION.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
PER CRNT OBS...DECIDED TO HOIST MARGINAL SCA HEADLINES (15-20KTS) FOR
CHES BAY TDY.

PVS DSCN:
HAVE ISSUED A SCA FOR THE THREE NRN CSTL WTRS FM THIS EVENG THRU
THU EVENG. S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT.

OTHERWISE...WINDS /WAVES/SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA
OVR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS. COLD FRNT WILL THEN CROSS THE WTRS
LATE THU NGT INTO FRI AFTN. STRONG NW OR N WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
AND GUSTY (LIKELY SCA CONDITIONS) WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND
ASSOC LAGGING UPR TROF FRI AFTN INTO SAT. HI PRES WILL BLD IN FM
THE NW FRI NGT THRU SAT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD/MAS
NEAR TERM...BMD/MAS/DAP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR/TMG