Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221934 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 334 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WX MORE TYPICAL OF MID JULY THIS AFTN...W/ VRB CLDS/PSNY CONDS...MODERATE HUMIDITY AND TEMPS BACK INTO THE M/U80S (INLAND)...U70S TO L80S RIGHT AT THE CST. AS XPCD...BULK OF CONVECTION THIS AFTN S OF THE VA/NC W/ ISOLD SHRAS FOUND TO THE N INTO INTERIOR VA. THROUGH THE EVE...WILL HOLD ONTO 30-40% FM INTERIOR SE VA S ACRS INTERIOR NE NC...W/ 15-20% POPS TO ABT A ORF-RIC-LKU LINE. THE PCPN LIKELY TO WANE OVRNGT...W/ CONDS AVGG P/MCLDY. LO TEMPS FM THE U60S TO L70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
W/ SFC HI PRES SETTLING OFF THE SE CONUS CST ON WED...INCRSG/DP LYRD SSWLY FLO WILL PUSH HOTTER AIR INTO THE RGN. HANGING ONTO 20-30% POPS...PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS...OTRW AVGG PSNY. LO LVL MIXING (W/ SSWLY WNDS) SHOULD LWR DEWPTS IN THE AFTN HRS...PREVENTING HEAT INDICES FM RISING TO/ABV 100F. NEXT TROUGH TRACKS THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NE/MID ATLC REGIONS WED INTO WED NGT...PUSHING THE NEXT SFC COLD FRONT TWD THE FA. HI TEMPS WILL BE MNLY 90 TO 95F INLAND...85 TO 90F NR THE CST. TIMING OF NEXT CDFNT INTO/ACRS THE FA WILL BE PRIMARY FCST CONCERN THU INTO FRI. 12Z/22 NAM/GFS ARE A TAD SLOWER THAN THEIR 00Z RUNS W/ PUSHING THE CDFNT SE THROUGH THE FA. HAVE NUDGED POPS A LTL HIGHER ACRS THE FA ON THU DUE TO SLOWER TIMING (STILL 50% FAR N...60% CNTRL/S)...THOUGH THAT TIMING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC ANYWAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP CNTRL VA) WHERE PCPN DEFICITS PAST MONTH OR SO AVG A COUPLE/FEW INCHES. THE CDFNT SETTLES S INTO NRN NC THU NGT/EARLY FRI...THEN IS VERY SLO TO PUSH S OF THERE (TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR) DURING REST OF THE DAY FRI. FOR BULK OF FA...XPCG DRYING FM THE N AND W AS SFC HI PRES (1016-1020MB) BUILDS INTO RGN FM THE OH VLY. WILL HANG ONTO 20-30% POPS ACRS PORTIONS OF NE NC ON FRI...OTRW P/MSNY W/ DEWPTS FALLING. LO TEMPS WED NGT MNLY IN THE L70S. HI TEMPS THU IN THE M/U80S N...U80S TO L90S S. HI TEMPS FRI IN THE M/U80S INLAND...L/M80S AT THE CST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER NC FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NC ON SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWING LIFTING BACK NORTH THROUGH VA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY FOR POSSIBILITY OF AFTN CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL ALIGN ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY CHC POPS INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES NEARBY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOLER AIR ARRIVING NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S. WARMEST SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S. COOLER AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST. ELY FLOW HAS MAINTAINED LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS GENERALLY VFR (DECKS 4-6K FT AGL)...BUT A SCT DECK AROUND 2500 FT AGL PERSISTS. ONLY ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR NEAR THE SE VA/NE NC COAST. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NC HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE SOUND. WILL LEAVE WX OUT OF ECG TAF AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT OPERATIONS WILL BE IMPACTED. ANY SHOWERS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DRYING THINGS OUT. SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST...INCLUDING KSBY. OUTLOOK...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY/VFR, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PSBL FRIDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM SBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE...TECHNICIANS ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM. WILL APPEND AMD NOT SKED TO KSBY TAF UFN. && .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE NC COAST WILL DISSIPATE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...MORE TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND LASTS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. E-SE WINDS AOB 10 KT CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SW TONIGHT....THEN REMAIN SW 10 TO 15 KT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N-NE AOB 15 KT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME S-SW AGAIN AOB 15 KT BY THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND PROBABLY NOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND EITHER. STAYED CLOSE TO NWPS DEPICTION FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2-3 FT BUILDING TO ~4 FT WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING AS WINDS BECOME N-NE FRIDAY. WAVES WILL REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/TMG NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...MAM/SAM MARINE...JDM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.