Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 300619 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 119 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 930 PM EST...A COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE ATTM...AND A PERIOD OF DRY WX IS EXPECTED TIL AROUND 09Z. THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR ERN AREAS IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX DESPITE LITTLE MOISTURE. THIS PCPN WOULD BE IN THE FROM OF LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET ACROSS THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S PIEDMONT TO NR 40 VA BEACH. FOR FRI...DRY WX AND DECREASING CLOUDINESS PREVAILS AS THE FRNT PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND STRONG HI PRES SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W. MAIN STORY ON FRI WILL BE THE WIND...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH NE AREAS AND 30-35 MPH SW AREAS. WITH HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LWR 30S MUCH OF THE DAY OVER MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... DRY WX CONTINUES INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE SFC HI SLIDES IN FM THE W AND BCMS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SE STATES. EXPECT WLY FLOW SAT WITH A MSTLY SUNNY SKY AND HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S UNDER CONTINUED CAA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER APPROACHING STORM SYSTM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUN THRU MON. KEY PLAYERS ARE AN APPROACHING NRN STREAM TROF OVR THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SUN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER MEXICO. SUBSEQUENT SFC LO DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE TN VALLEY LATE SUN. THE SFC LO WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC SUN NIGHT...WITH ITS EXACT TRACK IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING PTYPES THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AS FOR 12Z DATA...THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND TAKES THE LO DIRECTLY OVER VA...WHILE THE CMC HAS SHIFTED SOUTH LEADING TO A COLDER SOLUTION. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME RUN- TO-RUN CONSISTENCIES WITH THESE MODELS AS WELL. A BLENDED SOLUTION CONTINUES TO FAVOR A RA/IP/SN MIX AT THE ONSET SUN MORNG OVER N AND W AREAS...BCMG MSTLY RAIN SUN AFTN/EVENG WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN OVER NRN AREAS. AS THE LO PASSES E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THICKNESSES WILL FALL AND SNOW WILL BE MORE LIKELY OVER MORE OF THE AREA...WITH STILL PLAIN RAIN FOR EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. THE PCPN THEN ENDS FM W TO E ON MON WITH HI TEMPS ONLY IN THE LO 30S N TO LO 40S S UNDER STRONG CAA. THE GENERAL IDEA WITH THIS STORM IS THAT THE CURRENT TRACK FAVORS MAINLY A RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE FA WITH SOME WINTRY PCPN MIXED IN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE EVENT ESPECIALLY OVER N AND W AREAS. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TRACK WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE OVER WHERE THE RA/SN LINE DEVELOPS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANY PCPN ASSCTD WITH MON STORM IS OFFSHORE BY 00Z TUE. CLRG SKIES AND COLD MON NITE AS 1030 MB HIGH APPRCHS FA. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S SRN MOST CNTYS. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVRHD ERLY TUE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE. MSTLY SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS L-M30S. CLDS INCRS TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF NXT SYSTM. KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW AS ANY PCPN SHUD STAY S&W OF FA THRU 12Z WED. LOWS MAY OCCUR IN THE EVE THEN STDY OR RISE AFTR MIDNIGHT AS A S WIND DVLPS. LOWS IN THE 20S TO L30S SERN AREAS. MODELS SOLNS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTM. GFS TAKES SFC LOW NE INTO THE GT LAKES RGN WITH THE TRAILING CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS THE FA WED NITE. IT ALSO DVLPS A LOW ON SRN END OF BNDRY. THIS ALLOWS SAID BNDRY TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE ALLOWING THE LOW TO TRACK NE ALONG THE SERN US COAST BUT STAY JUST SOUTH OF AKQ FA. THIS SCENARIO BRINGS MILDER AIR IN AHEAD OF THE BNDRY FOR MAINLY RAIN...BUT A MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW WED NITE AS CAA DVLPS BEHIND IT. ECMWF HAS THE LOW GOING INTO THE GT LAKES BUT SHOWS A STRNGR AND WETTER SRN STREAM LOW MOVG NE ALONG THE MID ATLNTC COAST BEFORE LIFTING NE AWAY FROM RGN THURS. WENT WITH CHC (LIQUID) POPS WED. MAY START OFF AS A BRIEF RAIN/SLEET MIX ACROSS PIEDMONT ERLY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE PCPN MOVES IN. HIGHS IN THE 40S. WENT WITH CHC POPS FOR A RAIN TO SNOW SCENARIO WED NIGHT FOR NOW. THIS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE CALL AND WILL LIKELY ALL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WHEN THE COLD AIR OVRSPRDS THE RGN. LOWS M20S-L30S. COLD WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHWRS ALONG THE COAST THU MORN. OTW...CLRD AND COLD AS STRNG HIGH PRS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS M30S-L40S. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SOUTHERLY WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 KT WILL SHIFT TO THE WSW BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND THEN SHARPLY TO THE NW AFTER 12Z. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...SO HAVE ADDED -SHRA TO KORF/KPHF/KSBY FROM 09-13Z. STILL DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MORE THAN ABOUT 4000 FT AND VSBYS WILL ONLY DROP SLIGHTLY SO RETAINED P6SM WORDING. GUSTY NW WIND WILL DEVELOP AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT FROM 18Z-22Z. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTING TO 20-25 KT (HIGHEST AT KSBY). DRY/LESS WINDY SAT AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT KRIC/KSBY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS ON MON.
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&& .MARINE... EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INTO MARGINAL SCA LEVELS LATER THIS EVE AHEAD OF APPRCHG CD FRNT. ONLY CHANGE TO THE SCA HEADLINE WAS TO ADD THE LWR ZONE AND MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY. MAIN HEADLINE WILL BE THE GALES FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS STRNG CAA DVLPS BEHIND THE FRNT AND AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRS APPRCHG FROM THE WEST. WENT AHEAD AND EXTNDD THE GALE HEADLINE THRU SAT MORNING OVR THE MD CSTL WTRS AS THE STRNG GUSTS WILL BE SLOWER TO DMNSH. WIND GUSTS 40-45 KTS ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WITH 35-40KTS FRTHR SOUTH. SEAS & WAVES RESPOND TO THESE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG 7-10 FT WITH WAVES IN CHES BAY 4-5 FT. GIVEN THE TMPS/WIND GUSTS AND CRNT WTR TMPS...PER COORD WITH PHL... WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVSRY FOR THE CSTL WTRS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. THIS IS WHERE SOME MODERATE ICING IS LIKELY. KEPT LIGHT ICING MENTIONED FRTHR SOUTH & IN THE CHES BAY ATTM. WINDS DMNSH TO SCA SAT THEN QUICKLY DMNSH BLO SCA LVLS BY SAT EVE AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO AND OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT. NEXT LOW CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY WITH ANTHR CAA SURGE SEEN BEHIND THIS SYSTM MON AFTRN AND NIGHT. KEPT WINDS IN SCA RANGE AND CAPPED GUSTS ACROSS CSTL WTRS AT 30 KTS FOR NOW. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ630>632-634>636-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652. GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ652-654. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ656-658. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652. GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/MAS NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...LKB MARINE...MPR

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