Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 230813 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 413 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. EXPECT QUICK CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUNRISE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NW, AND WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER TODAY. MODIFYING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NW TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ON THE ERN SHORE AND 25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. A MAINLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKY EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED CU WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ERN SHORE DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. PLENTY OF SUN, DRYING FUELS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ADD UP TO A POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY,. HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, MAINLY FROM RIC NORTH, WITH AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER OUTLOOKED OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. FOR TEMPS, LOCAL THICKNESS TOOLS INDICATE HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE UPR 20S/LOW 30S (YIELDING MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S INLAND) AND WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT, EXPECT MAXIMA MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND ALL ZONES (NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE AT THE COAST DUE TO STRONG NW FLOW). HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CHILLY EARLY MORNING LOWS THU MORNING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG/W OF I-95 TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY FREEZE ISSUES AND PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED LOCALES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRY AGAIN ONCE AGAIN THU AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE SLIDING OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ERY FRIDAY. HIGHS THURS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S (A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE COAST). ONCE AGAIN, MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 20S THU AFTN BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. NEXT FAST MOVING WAVE OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS ON FRI. GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH BRINGING SYSTEM THROUGH, WITH THE NAM/ECMWF A BIT SHARPER WITH THE UPPER WAVE...AND HENCE A BIT SLOWER. PUSHED BACK ONSET OF POP JUST SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE STILL DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THIS, EXPECT A SCENARIO NOT UNLIKE THAT OF EARLIER YESTERDAY (TUESDAY); RATHER MEAGER INSTABILITY WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LAPSE RATES THAT RESULT IN SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL KEEP CHC POPS ALL ZONES FOR SCT SHRAS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM PUSHING THROUGH AT SOME POINT IN THE AFTN/EVENING. WARMER SSW FLOW SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 8O. CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS QUICKLY ENDING WEST TO EAST. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG AREA COASTLINES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED...LIKELY RESULTING IN A COOL/WET PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH BLOCKY FLOW...AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION. TRENDED TOWARD ENSEMBLE AND WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. OVERALL...UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS...A SECOND (DRY) COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE REGION ON SUN. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL THEN SET UP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL IT COULD BE FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE). THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL PROGRESS EWD SUN-TUES...TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT-TUES BASED ON UNCERTAINTY...BUT INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT AS THE UPPER/SFC LOW GETS CLOSER. HAVE TRENDED TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S SUN-TUES. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A SFC COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SRN NJ COAST INTO THE NC PIEDMONT REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS QUICKLY TURN TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY DUE TO A DECENT SURGE OF COLD AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 34015G25KT DURING THIS INITIAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR. AS THE FRONT EXITS THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WNW-NW WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 20G30KT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NW WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE THU MORNING AND THEN DROP OFF THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THU EVENING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THU NIGHT... CAUSING NW WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FRI AFTN/EVENING...BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA TAF SITES. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NLY AROUND 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .MARINE...
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY...AND IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE OFFICIALS/NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF RIC METRO AREA, AS WELL AS THE LOWER MD EASTER SHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST THIS AFTN (20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH) ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FVX-PTB- LFI...AND THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE WARNING AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG (10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH)...SO HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THESE AREAS TO HIGHLIGHT DRYING FUELS. DRY CONDITIONS (MIN RH VALUES 20-25%) WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WX WATCHES/WARNINGS OVER OUR AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER, ANYONE PLANNING/INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. WILL THEREFORE MENTION CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW IN THE HWO/FWF.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-049-061>064-068>078-081>086-089>091-094-099-100. INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-065>067-079-080-087-088-092-093-095>098. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633- 635>637. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632- 634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB/MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...BMD MARINE...BMD FIRE WEATHER...AKQ

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