Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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253 FXUS61 KAKQ 272058 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 358 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains offshore tonight. A warm front lifts through the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, with broad southwest flow allowing temperatures to warm well above normal Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong cold front will approach from the west Wednesday and cross the region Wednesday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Latest sfc analysis shows ~1035 mb high pres centered off the Mid Atlc cst with a frontal bndry draped near the SC/NC csts. After one morng in a while today with near normal temps, above normal temps return tonight with light sly flow and a mostly cloudy sky over the area. Expect low temps mainly in the mid 40s to lwr 50s. Maintained a slight chance-chance of showers over far eastern areas after midnight in association with WAA, weak shortwave energy aloft, and slight increase in moisture north of the aforementioned frontal bndry. Most areas expected to stay dry however, and any pcpn will be light.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Above normal temps and frequent chances of rain during the short term period. Tough to time the pcpn Tue/Tue night as there will be transient shortwaves aloft as well as WAA. PoPs are generally 20-30% daytime Tue, with a higher PoP (50-60%) Tue eveng over northern areas as a warm front lifts north through the area. Temps about 15-20 degrees above normal...highs in the low-mid 70s; upr 60s for the Lwr Eastern Shore. Low temps Tue night in the upr 50s to lwr 60s. Attention then turns Wed to a cold front approaching from the west. Think much of the daytime period will be dry except 20-40% PoPs again for northern/western areas. With the fropa holding off until Wed night, temps will be even warmer than those of Tue...highs in the lwr 80s many areas. Cold front Wed night will be as strong as the one last Sat, with SPC including the FA in a slight risk of severe wx. One issue however will be the timing of the front, with the best chance of tstms (Wed eveng) being after dark. That may diminish the severe potential however not remove the possibility entirety as deep layer shear and forcing is quite strong. PoPs up to 70% attm.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The long term period begins Thursday morning with overnight precipitation off the coast by sunrise. An intensifying surface low over the Northeast States will move quickly to the east into Atlantic Canada. High pressure over the Plains States Thursday builds into the Mid Atlantic region through Saturday. A short wave trough in the northern stream on Friday will bring an increase in clouds and possibly a few showers to northern part of the area...especially the northern neck and Lower Eastern Shore. A secondary cold front moves through Friday morning. Dry weather will prevail for the weekend. The aforementioned high pressure system will move off the coast Sunday. The next frontal system approaches early next week with increasing clouds and a slight chance for showers Monday. High temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 50s Thursday through Saturday with some 40s northeast portions Friday and Saturday. Temperatures warm into the 60s Sunday and mid 60s to lower 70s Monday. Lows are expected to be in the 30s Friday through Sunday mornings except 20s inland areas Saturday morning. Low temperatures Monday morning will range through the 40s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pres remains offshore this aftn with S/SW flow avgg 8-10 kt. Mid to high clouds continue to stream into the area from the west, and this will continue through the TAF period. A weak coastal trough will be near the Carolina cst late tngt, which may produce a few showers across far eastern areas of the fa. The chance is too low however attm to include mention in the 18Z TAFs. Outlook...A warm front lifts N through the region Tuesday with only a minimal chc of showers Tuesday/Tuesday night, aside from a 30-50% chc for SBY Tuesday evening. A strong cold front will approach the region from the west on Wednesday, cross the region Wednesday evening, and push offshore late Wednesday night. This cold front will bring showers/tstms likely Wednesday evening/night. High pressure returns Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a secondary, mainly dry cold front Friday. && .MARINE...
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The marine area will have quiet conditions through Tuesday before active weather brings increasing winds and seas for most of the remainder of the week. High pressure off the coast will bring light southerly winds to the area through Tuesday morning. Winds slowly increase late Tuesday. Seas increase Tuesday and will build to 4 to 6 feet Tuesday night from north to south. The wind field increases ahead of a strong cold front that approaches from the west. Have SCA in effect for coastal states beginning at 00Z north of Cape Charles and 08Z to the south. This is in effect through the end of the 4th period or 00Z Thursday but will need to be extended in future forecast issuances. SCA winds will be possible over inland waters on Wednesday but relatively cold water will limit mixing and held off on issuing any other SCA. SCA will be needed for all the waters Wednesday night through part of the day Thursday as a strong cold front moves through. Winds diminish late Thursday as the pressure gradient quickly weakens. Another SCA will likely be needed Friday and Friday night behind a secondary cold front.
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&& .CLIMATE... Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given continued warmth over the next week. Shown below are the top 3 warmest February`s on record. Expecting RIC and ORF to be the 2nd warmest and for ECG to be at least within the top 3 warmest. SBY looks on track to be the 4th or 5th warmest. Warmest February`s on record (average temps): * RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 49.9 (1890) 2) 48.5 (1976) 3) 48.1 (1884) * ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 52.4 (1890) 2) 50.5 (1909) 3) 50.1 (1990) * SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest) 1) 46.1 (1976) 2) 45.8 (1984) 3) 45.7 (1925) * ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest) 1) 52.1 (1990) 2) 51.8 (1939) 3) 50.3 (1976) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...MAS MARINE...LSA CLIMATE...

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