Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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146 FXUS61 KAKQ 310157 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 957 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Post Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly slide northeast along the Carolina coast through mid week. A cold front then approaches from the west...crossing the area Friday into Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Latest sfc analysis shows the remnant low of Post-Tropical Storm Bonnie centered over the SC lowlands...with a trof of low pressure over the Mid Atlc. Moisture continues to stream nwrd late this evening as evidenced by the latest radar scans showing light to moderate rain focused on extreme eastern areas (especially the Eastern Shore). However...areas west of I-95 have for the most part been spared of rain today and that should continue to be the case overnight. Forcing for ascent weakens overnight as the best moisture pulls offshore...so pops decrease to slight chance (west) and chance (east). Otherwise...cloudy skies will prevail with some breaks in the clouds over the Piedmont. Temps will bottom out to near normal readings...lows in the mid/upr 60s most spots.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short term period will remain unsettled with frequent chances for rain. Forecast is complicated by the weak remnant lo of Post- Tropical Storm Bonnie sliding ne up the Carolina cst each day in the period...with the Mid Atlc in a continued moist airmass despite meager lift. For now...best chances of rain will primarily be over srn areas. Chances for rain each period thru Thu will be in the slight chance-chance range. Temps will be near normal...with highs avgg in the upr 70s to mid 80s and lows ranging thru the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Unsettled wx xpcd through most of the extended pd. Remnant lo pres to be sloly kicked out well off the cst Thu ngt through Fri w/ approach of a cdfnt fm the nw and S/W aloft tracking fm the Great Lakes/Oh Vly to the NE states. The fnt crosses the fa Fri aftn/eve shras and psbl tstms...then stalls ovr the Carolinas Fri ngt through Sat. The fnt is xpcd to be pulled back N by Sun as a deep trough aloft dives SE through the Great Lakes/Oh Vly...resulting in additional chcs for shras/tstms into Mon. Highs Fri fm the u70s on the ern shore to the l-m80s elsw...then inthe m-u70s at the cst and l80s inland Sat/Sun and Mon. Lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The rain has diminished somewhat over the area but still falling prominently over the Eastern Shore and the eastern mainland Va/NC. TAF sites are generally VFR at 00Z with light NE wind but cigs are expected to lower to MVFR and then IFR during the late evening and overnight as low level moisture continues to feed in from the Atlantic. The low pressure from Bonnie continues to meander over South Carolina this evening. Latest guidance finally moves the system out over the waters and movg away from the Mid Atlantic coast by Wed/Thu of this week. So expect clouds and periods of rain through that time with periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. A cold front approaches the area on Friday, resulting in more showers and reduced visibilities and ceilings. && .MARINE... No headlines necessary attm. Remnant lo pres along the Carolina coasts through Wed then slowly tracks NE off the VA cst-Delmarva Thu into Fri. A cdfnt approaches the wtrs fm the NW Fri...pushing E and S of the wtrs Fri ngt...then stalling ovr the Carolinas on Sat. SE winds becoming more ENE tngt...then contg through Thu ngt. Speeds rmng generally aob 15kt...though there may be a bit of an incrs in speeds Wed into Thu as remnant lo pres tracks closer (to the srn wtrs). Seas 3-4ft in persistent onshore swell...but may build to 4-5 ft Wed into Thu eve as remnant lo pres tracks just off the mdatlc coast during this timeframe. Waves 1-2 ft with up to 3 ft possible at times in the mouth of Ches Bay due to the onshore swell. && .CLIMATE... The monthly rainfall total at Richmond through 5 pm Monday has reached 9.76", adding to the new record for the month of May. Additional rainfall is possible through tomorrow, which could push the monthly total above 10". If this does occur, it would only be the second occurrence of 10" or more of rain in a month prior to July. The other occurrence was Jan 1937 (10.08"). Top 5 wettest months of May at Richmond... 1. 9.76" 2016 (Through 5pm EDT Mon) 2. 9.13" 1889 3. 8.98" 1873 4. 8.87" 1972 5. 8.67" 1886 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...JDM/MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...SAM/JEF MARINE...ALB CLIMATE...AKQ

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