Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190841 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 441 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA EAST NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF FOR THE CURRENT FCST FM TODAY THRU MON. LO PRES OVR NRN FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNG WILL START TO LIFT ENE DURING TODAY. MEANWHILE...HI PRES OVR THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL BLD EWRD INTO SE CANADA. NRN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LO TO THE S...WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF THE REGION INTO THIS EVENG...AS HI PRES N OF THE AREA WILL HINDER PCPN MOVNG ANY FARTHER N THAN A LYH TO RIC TO WAL LINE. SO...HAVE 80%/70% POPS OVR NE NC AND EXTRM SRN VA...WITH POPS DECREASING TO CHC OR SLGT CHC AS YOU GO NWRD. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY SINK SSE TNGT THRU SUN...AS THE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND JUST OFFSHR. THIS WILL KEEP THE LO PRES AREA OFF THE SE CST FM DRIFTING NWRD. SGFNT AMT OF CLDNS XPCD TO RMN OVR MNLY SE VA/NE NC WELL INTO SUN...WHILE ELSW BECOMES P/MSNY. ONSHORE WNDS WILL RMN GUSTY NR/AT THE CST. LO TEMPS TNGT RANGING FM THE LWR 40S TO THE LWR 50S. HI TEMPS SUN FM 55 TO 60F AT THE CST TO THE M/U60S INLAND.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR SEASONABLE NORMAL TEMPS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY. SRN STREAM ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NEWD OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING AS A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUES AFTERNOON AND OFF THE COAST TUES EVENING. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER THE OH VALLEY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA...A WEAKER LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT FOR AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIP WATERS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER AS LOW LEVEL H85 FLOW INCREASES. THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THETA-E ADVECTION AND TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WILL ALSO PRODUCE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SO THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S...LITTLE CAPE/LIFT IN THE MIXED PHASE LAYER AND MODEST SHEAR WILL LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE TUES AFTERNOON FOR THUNDER. REMNANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN NWLY FLOW WILL COINCIDE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING...AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEDS SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA AND ERN SHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDS NIGHT-THURS. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THURS NIGHT-FRI AS A WRN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST. FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FRONT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S (TO NEAR 80 INLAND) THANKS TO SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER WEDS- THURS BEHIND THE FRONT (NW-W WINDS) WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE WILL WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S EXCEPT THURS MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CURRENTLY NOTING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SE COASTAL SITES, WITH SOME LCL IFR IMPACTING ECG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE PERSIST OVER THE FA THROUGH SAT. SWATH OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS FALLING FROM A 6-8KFT DECK, SO EXPECT A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AT PHF/ORF IN -RA OR SPRINKLES. VCSH F0R A FEW MORE HRS, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS REACHING TAF SITES AFTER 08Z SAT. NORTHERN TERMINALS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO SEE ANY PRECIP, BUT DID BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHRAS TO RIC BETWEEN 10-15Z BEFORE DRYING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE THE NW, HELPING TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS AND ELIMINATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTN/EVENING. HOWEVER, EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO PERSIST AT ORF/ECG THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK: NE FLOW CONTINUES SAT NGT THOUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES E AND WEDGES SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH VFR CONDS RETURNING WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .MARINE...
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LATEST OBS REFLECT LIGHT N-NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING. WX ANALYSIS FEATURES SFC LOW PRESSURE (AT THE SFC AND ALOFT) OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH E-NE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED NE-E FLOW OVER THE WATERS, WHICH WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SCA MAINLY FOR SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY, AND AN SCA HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR TODAY OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND WITH THIS PACKAGE. FLAGS FOR THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER THIS EVENING, AS THE SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY BUILDS E-NE THRU THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK (AS 1030+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS N OF THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK). FLAGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY THE YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK BY AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY, WITH NE-E FLOW TO PERSIST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN 4-6 FT SUNDAY, LIKELY BUILDING TO 6-9 FT (HIGHEST SOUTH) AS NE WINDS INCREASE LATER SUN AND EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING GRADIENT. HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THRU THE FOURTH PERIOD (SUNDAY NGT) FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. FLOW RETURNS TO THE E-SE MON NIGHT AS LOW EXITS AND GRADIENT SLACKENS. WINDS VEER S-SW BY TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT, WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS TUES AFTERNOON-EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUES NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-634-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...MAM MARINE...MAM

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