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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
355 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will
build east this evening, and settle over the local area by
Tuesday morning. The high will slide off the Carolina coast
later Tuesday, followed by a weak cold front pushing through the
region on Wednesday. Strong high pressure builds from the
eastern Great Lakes eastward to off the New England coast
Thursday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

The latest WX analysis indicates ~1025mb sfc high pressure
centered across the lower MS Valley, with sfc low pressure well
off the SE US coast. Aloft, a trough that extends down into GA is
pushing towards the coast, and will push offshore by early this
evening. A NNE low level flow along with some colder air aloft
has led to SCT-BKN cumulus cloud cover lingering in SE VA and
NE NC in addition to the mid/high clouds. Temperatures remain
rather cool, ranging from the low-mid 50s at the coast in the
SE, to the lower 60s along the I-95 corridor. The cloud cover
will continue to diminish through the late aftn and the sky will
be mostly clear all areas towards sunset. The sfc high pressure
system becomes centered over the local area later tonight,
allowing for a clear sky, light winds, and good radiational
cooling conditions. This will allow for the sfc dew pts to rise
several degrees (from the 20s into the lower 30s) after sunset,
conducive for frost formation. Will go a few degrees below NBM,
with forecast lows will be in the low- mid 30s over rural areas
W of the Chesapeake Bay (upper 30s in more urban portions).
Near the coast, lows will generally be in the upper 30s to lower
40s. The Frost Advisory has been expanded a few counties to the
E Chesapeake/Suffolk, etc.) given the favorable position of the
sfc high into the coastal plain of SE VA and NE NC. Will also
mention patchy frost another tier to the Bay (outside of urban
Hampton Roads) and across the MD eastern shore.

Mainly sunny with just a few high clouds on Tuesday as the sfc
high drifts off the Carolina coast by aftn. This will allow for
a SSW wind ~10mph well inland by aftn (with a bit more of an
onshore flow near the coast)> highs will warm into the lower 70s
well inland, with mid to upper 60s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Increasing clouds move in overnight Tue into Wed morning in
advance of the next cold front, keeping lows much milder and
ranging from the mid/upper 40s over interior southern VA/NE NC,
to the lower 50s elsewhere. Goof model agreement with the main
sfc low tracking east through Quebec into northern New England
on Wednesday, dragging a cold front through the local area
during the aftn. This system will be moisture starved for areas
east of the Appalachians and S of the Mason Dixon, with low
level flow turning westerly rather quickly. As such, PoPs will
only be 25-30% N and ~15-20% S. It will be well mixed and
warmer, with highs into the mid to upper 70s SE to the lower
70s N/NW. The front pushes SSE of the area Wed night, with sfc
high pressure building eastward across the Great Lakes. There
will be enough mixing to keep temperatures from dropping off too
much except over the N/NW zones. Lows will be in the upper
30s/around 40F NW to the upper 40s SE. High pressure will build
from the eastern Great Lakes eastward to off the New England coast
Thu through Fri. Mostly sunny and cool Thu with highs ranging
from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Clear/mostly clear Thu night with
lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Patchy frost will be
possible, mainly over the northern 1/2 of the FA from the
piedmont to e-central VA and the eastern shore.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 430 AM EDT Monday...

 Partly to mostly sunny on Fri with highs ranging through the
60s to near 70. Partly to mostly cloudy Fri night with lows
ranging through the 40s into the lower 50s. There could be
isolated showers across the N Sat into Sun morning, as a weak
warm front lifts into/across the area. Highs on Sat in the upper
60s to mid 70s. Lows Sat night in the lower to mid 50s. Warmer
on Sun, as an upper level ridge amplifies across the ern CONUS.
Highs on Sun in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

VFR this aftn through tonight and Tuesday. NNE winds 10-15kt
along the coast (and 5-10kt inland), will become light/variable
tonight and then shift to the SSW inland Tue aftn (E-SE near the
coast).

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Tue night. There is a
minimal chance for showers Wed, but conditions will primarily
stay VFR. Dry/VFR conditions Thu-Sat.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Surface analysis shows broad high pressure stretching from eastern
TX NE into the Ohio Valley with deepening low pressure now well off
the NC coast. Winds continue to slowly decrease today and now
average N 10-15 kt over the local waters. Waves in the bay are 1-3
ft (highest near the mouth). Seas offshore range from 3-4 ft N to 5-
7 ft S.

Higher seas continue to hang on across the southern coastal waters
despite decreasing wind speeds. Opted to extend the SCA for the
ocean south of Cape Charles Light until 7pm with the waters south of
the VA/NC border extended until 10pm (this zone may require another
extension this evening as seas are notoriously slow to subside here
even in weak NE winds). Otherwise, quiet marine weather is expected
tonight into Tuesday. Secondary low pressure deepens along the
stalled front well offshore late Tuesday and will keep some enhanced
8-10 second E-SE swell moving toward the coast, likely necessitating
another round of SCA for all/most of the coastal waters Tue night.
Meanwhile, a mainly dry cold front approaches from the west late
Tuesday into Wednesday. A re-tightening of the surface pressure
gradient results in increasing SW winds to around 15 kt, though some
low-end SCA may also be needed in the Bay and lower James River. The
front moves through the region Wednesday night into early Thursday,
with increasing N winds and potential for SCA headlines in its
wake.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ012>014-
     030.
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092-093-096-097-
     509>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/RHR