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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA PROVIDING DRY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA AND THE
CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS A STRONGER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION.

IN ASSOCIATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH WEAK DYNAMICS BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER
ONE AND A HALF INCHES...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

HAVE LIKELY POPS OVER ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING
...SLOWLY LOWERING OVERNIGHT. POPS DECREASE FROM THE WEST TOWARD
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY HAVE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
POPS ON TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...
DECREASING FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE ON
WEDNESDAY IS STILL UNCLEAR AS TO WHERE TO FOCUS PRECIPITATION AND
KEPT 30 PERCENT POPS AREA WIDE THAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE PLAINS STATES APPROACHES THE AREA. HAVE 40-50 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT 30 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NAM HAS LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS PERIOD
AND IS CLOSE TO EURO. LOWERED READINGS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY...MID TO UPR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LMODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE RGN THU NITE AND
OFFSHORE FRI AM. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
LINGERING MSTR NOW PROGGED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE BNDRY FRI
SO WILL ONLY CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FRI MORN. LOWS THU
NITE IN THE 60S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI AFTRN THRU
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UPSHOT WILL BE A DRY PRD WITH TMPS
A FEW DEGREES BLO NRML.

STILL WRM FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S. CAA KICKS IN FRI NITE.
LOWS THRU WEEKEND IN THE 50S. HIGHS EACH DAY L-M70S...WRMG INTO THE
M-U70S MON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SCTD SHWRS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN AND
EVENG. EXPECT VFR VSBYS WITH CIGS BORDERING ON VFR/MVFR OUTSIDE OF
THE RAIN. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SHWRS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENG...WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVRNGT THRU ERLY TUE. IFR LESS LIKELY AT
ORF/ECG WHERE ONLY MVRF CONDS WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

MAINLY VFR IN THE TUE TO THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD/SCTD SHWRS AND TSTMS BOTH TUE/WED. MORE WIDESPREAD SHWR/TSTM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THU ALG/AHD OF NEXT CDFNT...WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT. HI PRES RETURNS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS SRLY FLOW (AOB 15KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT) CONTS
ARND HIGH PRS OFF THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. PRS GRDNT INCRS LATE
WED AHEAD OF APPRCHG CDFRNT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THURS NITE.
ANY SCA CDNTNS THAT DVLP WILL BE MARGINAL AHEAD OF SAID FRNT. WNA
CONTS TO FCTS SEAS ARND 5 FT OUT NR 20 NM STARTING LATE WED BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE THIS FAR OUT FOR NOW.

WNDS SHFT INTO NW THEN N BEHIND FRNT FRI. NXT THREAT FOR SCA CNDTNS
COMES FRI NITE / ERLY SAT WITH A DECENT CAA SURGE XPCTD.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LSA
NEAR TERM...LSA
SHORT TERM...LSA
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/WRS
MARINE...MPR