Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 282005 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 405 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will slowly slide off the New England coast through tonight. Meanwhile, a weak tropical depression will linger off the Carolina coast through Tuesday, before pushing farther out to sea on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Current analysis indicating ~1026 mb surface high pressure centered off the New England coast/into Atlantic Canada, with Tropical Depression #8 located well off the Se US coast (about 350 miles SE of Cape Hatteras). Please see latest forecast from TPC/NHC for details, though no significant impacts are expected for the local area. Partly-mostly sunny skies prevail over the NW 2/3 of the CWA, with more clouds persisting in far SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures range from the upper 80s to around 90 F well inland amd in the low to mid 80s along the SE coast. Will maintain a 20% POP in NE NC into the early evening, though bulk of moisture will stay along/S of Albemarle Sound. Overall, anticipate fairly similar scenario to last night/early this morning as skies will be mostly clear in the evening (except over the far SE), with another round of low clouds and at least some patchy fog inland from about 06-12Z Monday morning. 12z GFS and NAM Bufkit soundings show this potential as they did yesterday at this time. Lows overnight to range from the lower 70s SE coast to 65-70 F elsewhere. For Monday, TD #8 progged to drift W but still remain too far off the NC/SC coast to have any significant impacts on the sensible wx. High res models suggest once again a chance for isolated/widely scattered showers in SE VA and NE NC (POPS 20-30%) while conditions stay primarily dry elsewhere. Highs will avg around 90 F well inland and N to the mid 80s SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Still not much change to the pattern Mon night/Tue, as a weak front pushes through the NE CONUS (and S into VA) as the tropical depression lingers off the coastal Carolinas before slowly curving NE and farther out to sea Late Tue/Wed. Highs will average in the u80s- l90s (low- mid 80s at the immediate coast)...w/ lows in the u60s- l70s along w/ 15-30% chances for mainly aftn/eve shras/tstms over SE VA- NE NC zones.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Will continue to go with a blend of the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF for the extended period. Will have a slgt to small chc (15-30%) for pcpn Tue ngt into Thu evening fm the combination of possible tropical moisture along the coast and a cold front pushing acrs the area late Wed thru Thu. More comfortable airmass will filter into the region for Thu ngt thru Sat, as high pressure blds in fm the N and slides to just offshore by late Sat. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Wed, in the mid to upper 80s Thu, and in the lower to mid 80s Fri and Sat. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tue ngt and Wed ngt, in the 60s to near 70 Thu ngt, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s Fri ngt. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions prevail through the evening except for periods of MVFR Cigs at ECG. Locally dense fog and low clouds (LIFR/IFR) will again be possible overnight/mon from 06-12Z. Reinforcing frontal boundary settle S across the FA late Mon-Mon ngt. Mainly dry weather is expected through Wed other than isolated to scattered shras/tstms are possible each afternoon/evening across far SE VA/NE NC (mainly impacting KORF and KECG).
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&& .MARINE... Sub-sca conditions will continue across the waters through at least the next few days. Sfc hi pressure over New England this morng will slide offshore tda with onshore flow continuing over the local area. Expect 1-3 ft waves over the bay and 3-4 ft seas over the coastal waters. Winds average 10-15 kt for Mon thru Wed, as high pressure weakens and weak low pressure areas or possible tropical lows will spin off the SE or Mid Atlc. && .CLIMATE... Has been a rather hot and dry month of August over much of the area (quite a contrast to a summer that began very wet). Based on forecast temperatures for the rest of the month, Richmond and Norfolk are both going to rank in the top 10 warmest (with a good chance at being among the top 5 warmest). Richmond has only received 0.53" of rain for the month (if this were to stand, it would rank as the 3rd driest on record). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...MAS/TMG CLIMATE...AKQ

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