Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 242018 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 418 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor cold front settles across the Carolinas tonight. High pressure tracks across Southeast Canada Sunday and Monday. A second and stronger cold front will cross the region Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Mid afternoon MSAS/sfc obs has the backdoor front ivof I64 with a 1025mb high centered south of James Bay. Models show this high will be strong enough to push the frontal boundary into North Carolina and south of the Albemarle Sound after 00Z. ST thickens due to the post-frontal NNE flow allowing a wedge to setup. High res data showing just enuf support for a few showers with the front this evening (given crnt temps arnd 90) and some spotty light rain/sprinkles behind the boundary across the piedmont after midnite. Lows in the mid 50s north to mid 60s south... except upr 60s sern coastal areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Front pushes south to near the NC/SC border Sunday in response to high pressure sliding across Southeast Canada. This high extends south across the Mid Atlantic Region Sunday and Sunday night. Per TSCTNS, have maintained mstly cldy conditions west of the Ches Bay to account for low level moisture/weak isentropic upglide. Of note is somewhat drier air progged to work its way south along the eastern shore Sun. This will allow for skies to become pt sunny there. Overcast conditions and pockets of light rain or drizzle are possible along and west of I95. Pops remain only in slight chc range with minimal chances for measuring pcpn. Highs Sun in the low to mid 70s. Lows Sun night in the mid 50s to lwr 60s except 50-55 with clearing skies across Eastern shore. High pressure moves north of New England Monday with the next front approaching from the mts during the afternoon. Cool air wedge holds firm across the piedmont resulting in another mstly cldy day with highs in the mid to upr 70s. A strong cold front progged to drop into the region late Monday night ahead of a potent northern stream trough. Latest data shows the front slowing a bit as it pushes across the region Tuesday. Moisture increases along the front with PW`s climbing above 1.75 inches along with marginal instab. Pcpn enters the region from the NW with highest pops after midnight. Lows Mon nite in the mid 60s. Models show possible weak s/w energy riding east along the boundary Tuesday. This will likely enhance pcpn and allow it to linger a bit longer especially along coastal sections. Thus, went ahead and bumped up pops to likely across the sern zones. Kept thunder chcs in as well. Highs Tuesday in the low to mid 70s. QPF generally between 1/2 to 3/4 inch. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Will stay closer to the 12z GFS for the extended period. Cold front pushes off the coast Tue ngt, and will linger just offshr thru Thu until nrn stream upr trough drops se fm the Great Lakes and ewrd acrs the NE U.S. So, will have chc pops (25-40%) ovr the ESE counties Tue ngt and Wed, slgt chc pops ovr ESE counties Wed ngt, and 10-14% pops entire area Thu. Large sfc high pressure area will then bld into and ovr the region Thu ngt thru Sat, providing dry/comfortable early autumn conditions. Temperatures will average close to seasonable averages, with highs Tuesday ranging from the mid 70`s northwest to around 80 southeast. Highs Wed thru Sat generally in the 70`s with lows ranging thru the 50s into the lower 60s. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Backdoor cold front moving south across the region this afternoon. Wind shift to the north well ahead of it, but the boundary is denoted by a BKN-OVC ST layer between 1.5-2.5K ft. This cloud deck will lift a bit (btwn 3-4K ft) as it drifts south across the region over the next several hours. The MVFR conditions along with NNE winds at 10 mph or less continue through most of the forecast period west of the Ches Bay. Model data indicating drier air from the north begins to work its way south along the Delmarva late tonight with SCT-BKN cloud coverage. Latest data continues to support VFR conditions at SBY after 12Z Sun. A light shwr/sprnkl possible at RIC tonite as the wedge sets up, but coverage not widespread enuf to include in forecast attm. Fog not expected to be an issue tonight, but local MVFR VSBYS (3-5SM) possible towards sunrise. Outlook... The next chc for sgnfcnt pcpn comes late Monday night and Tuesday ahead and along the next cold front. && .MARINE... Will maintain SCA for the coastal waters thru Sun morning, as NNE winds 10 to 20 kt coupled with distant tropical cyclone Karl will aid in building seas to 4-5 feet this evening through tonight. The cntr of high pressure will build southward into SE Canada tonight into Sun morningover the waters tonight, with NNE winds diminishing to 5 15 kt. Seas will subside to 3-4 feet Sun afternoon. Waves will bld to 1-3 feet tonight, then subside to 1 to 2 ft during Sun. The next cold front approaching from the northwest will shift winds back to the south to southeast Mon. Marginal southerly SCA conditions are possible ahead of the front late Mon and Mon night behind a lifting warm front. The front progged to reach the waters Tue morning and aftn, pushing offshore Tue evening/night. && .HYDROLOGY... The Cashie River at Windsor continues to fall but remains in the moderate flood range. The river is forecast to slowly fall below flood stage Sunday evening. See FLSAKQ for details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MPR MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ

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