National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 151818
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN SETTLES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LVL CLDNS AND ISOLD SHRAS TRACKING SE THROUGH NE QTR OF FA
ATTM...XPCD TO DIMINISH IN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS. OTRW...WRMFNT CONTS
TO LIFT NE AND AWAY FM FA THROUGH MIDDAY INTO AFTN HRS. SW WNDS
GUSTY AT TIMES (TO 25-30 MPH) USHERING IN MUCH WRMR AMS. LATEST
RUC SHOWS FA IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THIS AFTN...W/ SIZABLE CAP
INVOF 925-875MB. ANY LINE/ORGANIZED CNVTN INVOF CDFNT SLOLY SINKING
S THROUGH PA/OH XPCD TO RMN N OF FA. MAY APPROACH LWR MD ERN SHR
AFT 21-23Z/15. HI TEMPS FM 80-85F E...TO M/U80S FM THE INLAND OF
THE CHES BAY TO THE I95-I64 CORRIDORS...TO ARND 90F INVOF SWRN
PDMNT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK FRNTL BNDRY PROGGED TO STALL N OF FA TONITE. BEST SPRT FOR ANY
EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS LWR MD ERN SHORE SO WILL CARRY
CHC POPS FOR NOW. OTW...A PT CLDY & WRM NITE. LOWS IN THE M-U60S.

HIGH PRS MOVG SE FROM CANADA PUSHES THIS BNDRY SOUTH INTO AKQ FA
THURS. BNDRY IS FCSTD TO STALL OVR SRN HALF OF FA BY FRI AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE STRNG RIDGE TO THE S. THIS BNDRY TO BE THE TRIGGER
FOR MAINLY AFTRN / EVE CONVECTION EACH DAY. HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY
30-40% FA WIDE WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA FRI. DON`T
SEE ANY SVR THREAT ATTM...BUT SOME LCLLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS PSBL DUE
TO SLOW MOVMNT OF ANY STORMS THAT DVLP. HIGHS THURS L-M80S ALONG THE
COAST WITH M-U80S W OF CHES BAY. LOWS THURS NITE IN THE U50S LWR MD
ERN SHORE (BEHIND FRNT)...L-M60S ELSEWHERE. A BIT COOLER FRI DUE
TO MORE CLDS AND FRNTL PSN. HIGHS 80-85 XCPT U70S-L80S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIODS REGARDING
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...HOWEVER THE OVERALL MESSAGE REMAINS THE
SAME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING IN THE REGION FROM THE SW.

IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY
IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES NRN NEW
ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BRINGS A BRIEF COOL DOWN TO THE
REGION. SAT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...LOW-MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE/ELY FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY REBOUND BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY FROM SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S (MID-UPPER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST) WITH
LOWS SAT-MON GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

IN REGARD TO PRECIPITATION...VARIOUS SHORTWAVES/MOISTURE PASSING
THROUGH W-NW FLOW ALOFT...IN ADDITION TO DIFFERING LONG RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN EXACT TIMING OF
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL THEREFORE CARRY A CHANCE
FOR AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING TIMEFRAMES FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED SW TO NE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
SW WINDS HAVE INCREASED AS THE FRONT LIFTED...EXPECT OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING AND CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD THU AFTN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...BEFORE STALLING OVER NC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A
SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. LOW END
SCA SPEEDS OBSERVED OVER THE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING AS A GRADIENT
EXISTS BTWN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE S AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. HAVE ALSO RAISED SCA HEADLINES FOR THE LOWER JAMES RIVER AS
SCA SPEEDS ARE OCCURRING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OVER THE WATER LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND INCREASE AS
THE FRONT LIFTS. WHILE WAA WILL EXIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...THERMAL
PROFILES AND CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW END SCA SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE BAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL IN SCA SPEEDS AS THE FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SCA SPEEDS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE AFTERNOON.
THUS...SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 1AM EDT THURSDAY. HEADLINES HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED
FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND FOR SCA SPEEDS. FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS...EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA SPEEDS...BUT STRONG
SWLY FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS OVER THE NRN COASTAL ZONES TO 4 TO 6 FT.
HEADLINES WILL RUN FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD THURS...CROSSING THE WATER
THURS NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SW TO THE N/NE POST FRONTAL...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUB SCA CONDS. SUB SCA CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>634-
     638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...SAM/DAP
MARINE...SAM