Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 161854
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
254 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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This morning`s front is forecast to lift back north as a warm
front late tonight into Wednesday. Another front crosses the
area Thursday with a stronger cold front then expected by the
weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...
Afternoon analysis shows strong low pressure over eastern Nebraska
with high pressure near the Hudson Bay ridging south into the local
area. Skies are mostly clear N and E of I-64 with some high clouds
across the SW half of the area. Temperatures are in the 70s for
inland areas with upper 60s near the coast where onshore flow
continues.
The front that came through the region early this morning has moved
well SW into NC. Expect dry conditions to persist through the
remainder of the day but the front is forecast to begin lifting back
NE tonight which will allow for a slight chance of showers across
the west. A weak trough to the north may provide enough of a focus
for a few showers across the northern tier of counties late tonight
but PoPs are generally below 20%. Lows tonight will fall into the
low and mid 50s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...
The front lifts NE through the area on Wednesday, bringing an
increase in cloud cover and a chance for showers during the
afternoon and evening. Highs will climb into the upper 70s and low
80s SW of I-64. The front will slow/stall to the NE of 64 which will
keep highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Some instability
is noted on forecast soundings during the evening hours so have
added a slight chance of thunder to the weather grids. Low temps
will be a few degrees warmer with upper 50s to low 60s forecast.
Warm temperatures return for Thursday with a weak cold front moving
through in the afternoon. Most guidance keeps the local area dry.
Temps range from the mid 80s across the SW to the 70s for the
immediate coast and Eastern Shore. Lows Thursday night will mostly
be in the 50s with a few upper 40s possible for the MD Eastern
Shore. A stronger front approaches the region on Friday with
increasing chances for showers across the west in the afternoon.
Will keep a mention of thunder in the forecast as well. High temps
will again be warmest across the SW counties and coolest NE, ranging
from the mid to upper 70s to the low 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...
A stronger cold front is progged to approach from the NW Fri night
and the 12z/16 global models now all show the front crossing the
area early in the day on Saturday. Shower chances increase Friday
evening ahead of the front but remain below 50%. Guidance has
trended downward with respect to PoPs on Saturday with most areas
now 20% or less. With the earlier frontal passage timing, any
mention of thunder has been removed for the area Saturday. Temps on
Saturday will range from the upper 60s for the Eastern Shore to he
low and mid 70s elsewhere. It will be much cooler behind the front
on Sunday and Monday with highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the
40s. In addition, a southern stream low pressure system may bring
additional rain to the region during this time (highest PoPs are in
SE VA/NE NC)...although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding this feature. Otherwise, high pressure slowly builds in
from the NW into early next week. Warming trend for Tuesday with
highs back into the low 70a away from the water.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...
Prevailing VFR conditions will continue through the 12z/16 TAF
period. A cold front has just crossed ORF/PHF, and will cross
ECG shortly. Winds become NE at ~10 kt behind the front,
although there will be a 1-3 hour period of 20 kt gusts at
PHF/ORF/ECG from now-14z. Winds veer to the E then SE this
aftn/evening with clear skies outside of SCT-BKN high clouds.
Cloud bases lower tonight as the front starts to move back north
as a warm front. MVFR CIGs are possible late tonight at RIC
with low-end shower chances after 06z.
Outlook: Shower chances continue Wednesday/Wednesday night as
that frontal boundary continues to move north before stalling
in/near the eastern shore. MVFR-IFR restrictions are possible
Wed-Thu AM, especially at RIC/SBY. Drier conditions move in by
late Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...
NE winds have decreased to generally 10 kt or less across the waters
as high pressure builds overhead. The high will shift offshore by
this evening allowing winds to turn SE into Wednesday. Winds turn
southerly at 10 to 15 kt by Wed evening as a frontal boundary just
south of the area moves back north. Weak low pressure moves across
the waters Thu allowing winds to turn north to northeast by Thu
afternoon. This low is forecast to deepen slightly just offshore of
the Delmarva late Thursday into Thursday night, which will allow N-
NE winds to increase to 15 kt across the waters. Will keep
conditions below small craft advisory criteria for now as the low is
expected to stay far enough offshore to limit SCA conditions. NE
winds will continue Friday into Saturday although they will
gradually diminish as the low weakens just offshore and high
pressure builds in.
Waves generally 2 ft or less in the bay through the week (except
building to up to 3 feet at the entrance of the bay by Friday).
Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 ft by Friday over the
ocean.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.CLIMATE...
Norfolk (KORF) set a new daily record high temperature with
their high of 90 yesterday (4/15), breaking the previous high
of 89 (1941).
Wallops (KWAL) set a new daily record high temperature with
their high of 87 yesterday (4/15), breaking the previous high
of 84 (1967).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MRD
CLIMATE...