Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200623 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 223 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic region through the weekend...with temperatures gradually warming. The next cold front is expected to impact the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Sfc hi pres continues to sit invof FA through today as ridge aloft amplifies over the ern CONUS. A very weak frontal boundary will settle S through the area this morning...turning winds to the N. Otherwise...starting out w/ patchy/areas of FG for the early morning hours (VSBYs restricted to 1/2SM or less in some places). That FG quickly dissipates by 13-14Z/20...leading to another sunny and seasonably warm day. Highs in the m-u70s...l70s right along the immediate coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pres sfc-aloft remains anchored invof FA through Sat...then slowly shifts off the coast Sat night-Sun. Other than possible patchy/areas of FG (by late) tonight and again Sat night...dry- continued seasonably warm wx expected Sat-Sun. Lows tonight in the mainly 45-50F inland...to the l-m50s at the immediate coast. Highs Sat in the m-u70s...l70s right at the coast. A bit more cloudiness possible by Sun afternoon as the low level flow becomes more SE ahead of the next cold front (which will be entering the OH-TN valleys) - so may become partly sunny vs mostly sunny. Lows Sat night in the u40s-l50s inland to the m50s at the coast. Highs Sun ranging through the 70s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Rain chances finally return to the forecast by Monday. A slow- moving longwave trough pushes E toward the mid Atlantic region early next week. Rain chances expected to hold off until late Mon/Mon night across the piedmont...then into Tuey along and east of I-95. Temps in the remain mild ahead of the front w/ lows Sun night in the 50s...highs Mon in the 70s. Sfc low pressure deepening over the Southeast States Mon night will get absorbed into a larger upper level trough digging over the Midwest and as far south as the mid-Mississippi Valley on Tue. Rain will be ongoing as a cold front (extending from NY to NE GA) is pushed ewd by the incoming upper trough. A much colder Canadian airmass moves into the area behind the cold front beginning Tue night with showers lingering into Wed. Decent cold air advection paired with a tight pressure gradient will likely allow dewpoints to plummet while temperatures are slower to fall/respond which is common. Upper trough swings through the region Wed/Wed night. Highs near normal Tue (70-75F) with widespread rain present. Lows Tue night in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. Highs Wed near normal to around 5 degrees below normal with readings in the mid-upper 60s. Much cooler Wed night/Thu with lows generally in the 40s (around 50F immediate coast) and highs of 60-65F.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sfc hi pres remains invof FA attm (and through Sat). Patchy/areas of FG and ST into the early morning hours this morning...otherwise VFR conditions through the 06Z TAF forecast period. Another potential for patchy/areas of FG after 06Z forecast period (by late tonight/early Sat morning). Sfc hi pres slides farther offshore Sun...w/ a cold front expected to push across the local area late Mon through Tue (resulting in at least periodic sub- VFR conditions in RA/lowering CIGs likely. && .MARINE... Genly benign conditions over the waters for the next several days with sfc high pressure in place across the region. There will be a weak cold front pushing SE from the Great Lakes and off the NJ coast Fri morning. Not anticipating any headlines with this feature, but this will allow for a modest increase in winds to 10-15 kt Fri morning as the winds shift to the N. Still only expect waves to build to around 2 ft for the Bay/lower James, and to remain around 3 ft for the coastal waters. Strong surface high re-establishes its control over the region Fri night through Sunday with waves mainly 1 ft and seas of 2-3 ft. The next chance for significant weather over the waters does not come until early next week as a strong cold front approaches from the west on Monday, and slowly crosses the waters Tue or tue night. The pressure gradient will lead to increasing southerly flow ahead of the front Mon into early Tue, and strong NNW winds behind the front Tue night or Wed. SCA headlines will likely be needed for most or all of the area during this period. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...ALB MARINE...LKB

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