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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 191522
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1122 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFF THE COAST COAST WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIFT ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS ALSO VISIBLE OVER WRN KY/TN THIS MORNING. AT
THE SFC...CONFLUENCE WILL RESULT IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL DISSIPATE IN
THAT REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BEST MOISTURE HAS BEEN
SHUNTED OFFSHORE WITH THE FRONT...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
(PRECIP WATERS PER LATEST KWAL SOUNDING ONLY AT 1.21 INCHES)
EXISTS. NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE WRN
ATLANTIC INTO THE LOWEST LEVELS...GENERALLY BELOW 700MB. DRY NWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL SCOUR OUT MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB. SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK
SHEAR ZONE WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LIGHT SHOWERS. QPF AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
TODAY WITH NE WINDS 5-10 MPH. TEMPS FORECAST TO ONLY WARM TO NEAR
80 INTO THE LOW 80S. NE FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
LOW 60S TONIGHT. INLAND LOCALES...ESP OVER THE VA PIEDMONT COULD
SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HI PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR CONTS TO EXPAND SWD INTO THE
MDATLC RGN TNGT INTO FRI. A PD OF VRY COMFY (ERY) SUMMER WX XPCD
W/ RELATIVELY LO DEWPTS...AND TEMPS AVGG SVRL DEGS F BLO NRML.

ANY LINGERING SHRAS (INLAND) THIS EVE DISSIPATE W/ CLR-PCLDY CONDS
XPCD OVRNGT TNGT. MDLS SUGGEST PTNTL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CNVTN
OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...PRIMARILY W OF THE FA BOTH THU/FRI.
OTRW...PCLDY W TO MNLY SUNNY ELSW ON THU. 00Z/19 NAM DVLPG MORE
SGFNT AREA OF LO PRES INVOF CSTL NC (ALG STALLED FNTL BNDRY ALG
THE CSTL CAROLINAS) BY FRI...SPREADING CLDNS AND LO CHC POPS INTO
PORTIONS OF NE NC AND XTRM SE VA. NOT COMPLETELY ADJUSTING FCST IN
THAT DIRECTION...BUT HAVE ADDED SCT-BKN CLDNS TO THOSE AREAS
(MNLY DUE TO CONTD ONSHR LO LVL FLO). OTRW...MNLY SUNNY CONDS
XPCD.

LO TEMPS TNGT 9AND AGAIN THU NGT) FM THE M50S TO L60S. HI TEMPS
THU FM THE M/U70S AT THE CST TO THE L80S (WELL) INLAND. HI TEMPS
FRI FM THE U70S AT THE CST TO THE M80S (WELL) INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DROPS S OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ANY SURFACE FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM SE-SW WILL
PRODUCE A STEADY WARMING TRENDS WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER
80S SATURDAY...TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND
UPWARD FROM AROUND 65 EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER SE OF THE AREA DURING
TODAY. LINGERING LO LVL MOIST COMBINED WITH SOME CLEARING HAS
RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF STRATUS AND LWR SC BEHIND THE FRONT.
THESE IFR/MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE VSBYS WILL BE ARND UNTIL 13Z OR
14Z THIS MORNG. HI PRES WITH DRIER AIR WILL BLD IN FM THE NNE
LATER THIS MORNG INTO THU. THE HI WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE CST FOR
THU AFTN INTO THE WEEKEND. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES MOVNG NE TWD THE NRN ATLC WILL PULL THE COLD FRONT FARTHER
S AND E OF THE AREA DURING TODAY. A BRIEF SHALLOW NORTHERLY CAA
SURGE WILL RESULT IN 15 TO 20 KT AND SCA`S FOR THE ENTIRE CHES
BAY...THE JAMES RIVER AT THE JAMES RIVER BRIDGE/HAMPTON ROADS
BRIDGE TUNNEL...AND THE CURRITUCK SND UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNG. AS
FOR THE OCEAN...NNE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING TODAY
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT...AS HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE N. THE HI WILL
LINGER OFF THE NE CST THU AFTN THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE NC
OUTER BANKS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEADY 10-15 KT ONSHR FLO...WHICH
WILL HELP MAINTAIN 3-4 FT SEAS. THE HI SLOWLY SINKS S OFF THE
CST DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE S AND
REMAINING AOB 15 KT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...NONE.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098.
MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG