Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261402 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 902 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST WEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NC...AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING. UPDATED TO SLOW THE APPROACH OF COLDER AIR INTO NW COUNTIES UNTIL NOON OR AFTERWARDS (AND AT THAT POINT IT WILL BE TOO LATE FOR MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION EVEN IN LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES). DECIDED TO LEAVE IN UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW THERE THIS AFTN DUE TO FALLING TEMPS ACRS SHENANDOAH VALLEY REGION CURRENTLY. XPCT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MAINLY BE ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SFCS. A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS CAROLINE / HANOVER / ON NE INTO THE NRN NECK FOR A FEW HRS...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE XPCTD THERE. NO ADVSRYS PLANNED ATTM...BUT HAVE PUT A BIT MORE DETAIL IN MORNING HWO. LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...ADJUSTED QPF AMOUNTS UPWARD A BIT WELL INLAND AND DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT FARTHER SE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF SE VA AND FROM CHOWAN COUNTY EASTWARD IN NE NC. XPCT MDT TO OCNL HVY RAINFALL WITH 100 POPS THRU THE ERLY AFTRN HRS FA WIDE. TMPS SLOWLY FALLING FROM THE 12Z READINGS. TMPS BY AFTRN RANGE FROM THE M30S NW- TO L50S COASTAL NE NC. MOISTURE SHALLOWS AFTR 18Z..SO PCPN SHOULD STEADILY LESSEN IN INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE AFTRN OR EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT CHANGE TO SN COULD ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS PCPN INTENSITY WANES. A DECENT SOAKING EXPECTED WITH TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.75" TO 1.50"...LOCALLY UP TO 2".
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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CSTL LOW AND ASSCTD PCPN QUICKLY MOVE NE THIS EVE...BUT ENUF LEFT OVR MSTR SEEN IN TSCTNS FOR LINGERING RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHWRS THIS EVE. KEPT A 20-30 POP. MODELS THEN SHOW A SVRL HR PRD OF "NON EVENTFUL" CNDTNS FROM LATE EVENING THRU ERLY MORNING HRS AS FIRST SYSTM LEAVES. LOWS 30-35 XCPT U30S SERN CSTL AREAS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR SCNDRY IMPULSE AFTR 09Z...AFFECTING THE REGION PRIMARILY FROM 09Z-15Z OR SO. MODELS DIFFER A BIT TIMING...BUT LIFT LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH DESPITE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE FOR MOST OF THE EVENT. THERMAL PROFILES AND TIME OF DAY SUGGESTS SNOW SHWRS (NRN CNTYS)...RAIN/SNOW SHWR MIX NRTH OF VA/NC LINE TO SAY I64 ALTHOUGH COULD BECOME ALL SNOW FOR A FEW HRS IF PRECIP COMES DOWN FAST ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER). HAVE ADDED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. FOR NOW...KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR NORFOLK/VA BEACH/NE NC. S/W TRACKS MOVES OFF THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. MSTLY CLDY WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY MORNING POPS WITH TMPS IN THE M30S-TO AROUND 40 F...THEN BCMG PT SUNNY LATE AFTN AS TMPS SLOWLY RISE INTO THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. XPCT CLRG SKIES & DRY CONDITIONS FOR THOSE EARLY MORNING HOLIDAY SHOPPERS. LOWS IN M20S-L30S. HIGHS FRI IN THE L-M40S.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL HAVE A MAINLY DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR SUN AND MON. HI PRES WILL SETTLE OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT INTO MON. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP ACRS THE AREA MON AFTN/NGT WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND MAYBE ISLTD PCPN. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS NEW ENGLAND ON TUE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...IN THE LWR TO MID 60S SUN AND MON...AND IN THE UPR 40S TO UPR 50S TUE. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S SAT MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...IN THE 40S MON MORNG...AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S TUE MORNG. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING A DECENT SLUG OF PRECIPITATION TO THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE COASTAL LOW MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF -RASN WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING NW OF KRIC. GUSTY N-NW WINDS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AVERAGE 10-20KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25-35KT LIKELY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ADVERSE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED LATE WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST AND DISSIPATING. COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR -SN OR -RASN ALONG AND NW OF A GENERAL LINE FROM KSBY- KRIC-KFVX. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE MUCH FASTER THAN CIGS...WHICH ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE/LIFT/BREAK-UP BY THURSDAY EVENING. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE...GALE FORCE GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER ALL WATERS BUT THE RIVERS TODAY...SO HAVE ADDED THE REMAINING MIDDLE BAY ZONES TO THE GALE WARNING. GUSTS MAY REACH 40 KT ON THE COASTAL WATERS. STRONG SCA`S REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE RIVERS THRU 5 PM. WINDS NE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SWITCH TO NW THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS N OF THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. THE LONGER TRAJECTORY OVER THE WATER THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 6-10 FT (HIGHEST OUT NEAR 20 NM). SCA`S WILL LIKELY REPLACE THE GALES FOR A TIME THIS EVE AND TONIGHT...AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS THURS MORN BEFORE YET ANOTHER CAA SURGE SEEN THURS EVE INTO FRI MORN BEHIND UPR LVL LOW THAT EXITS OFF THE CST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRI AFTN/NIGHT. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MD/VA ZONES ADJACENT TO THE ATLC WATERS AND THE LOWER BAY DUE TO STRONG NNE FLOW WED MORNING LEADING TO WATER LEVELS WITHIN A FEW TENTHS OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH TIDE CYCLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1.50" TO 2.50" WILL ALSO TEND TO EXACERBATE THE FLOODING TO SOME EXTENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. ANOMALIES SHOULD FALL OFF RATHER QUICKLY LATER WED/WED NIGHT AS WINDS TURN NW/OFFSHORE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ635>638. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>634. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ654-656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JDM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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