Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 200825 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 425 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered northwest of the area through the end of the week. Tropical Cyclone Jose will continue to track northeast to a position off the southern New England coast later today, then meander there through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TS Jose is currently located about 200 miles south of Nantucket Mass and moving NE at 9 mph. The effects on sensible wx continue to pull slowly ne and away from the area today. In its wake, subsidence results in a mstly sunny and unseasonably warm day. Watching the moisture across the KY valley. Latest guidance suggests this moisture dissipates as it crosses the mts after 18Z. Even the high res data suggests little if any convection makes it into the swrn most zones. Kept the forecast dry with a silent 14 pop across the swrn zones. H85 temps arnd 16C results in highs btwn 85-90 except low-mid 80s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Models suggest any evening convection to the west slides SW of the fa then dissipates after 00Z across the NC piedmont. Otw, mstly clr to pt cldy and warm tonight. Lows in the mid 60s to lwr 70s. Any convection from the lingering moisture stays west and south of the fa Thursday as high pressure continues to dominate into the weekend. Expect pt to mstly sunny days with mstly clr to pt cldy nights. Highs Thursday and Friday in the low-mid 80s except 75-80 at the beaches. Lows from the lwr 60s NW to lwr 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure builds over the ern Great Lakes and NE CONUS early next week as the remnant low (Jose) slowly circulates ESE of New England. Other than periods of SC off the ocean (by the late in the weekend-early next week) esp at the coast...expect dry wx with above normal temps. Highs Sat-Sun in the mid-upr 80s except lwr 80s at the coast. Highs Mon and Tue in the upr 70s-mid 80s. Lows in the low-mid 60s inland, upr 60s to around 70F at the coast. Extended models continue to struggle with the tropical systems into early next week. It may depend on where Jose`s low tracks which may eventually help to steer Maria. The latest GFS and to a certain point the ECMWF has Maria on a similar track to what Jose did (i.e. moving north along the eastern seaboard my mid week, but how close to the coast???). To early for anything specific, but we may be doing this all over again for Maria next week. Stay tuned.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tropical Storm Jose will continue to lift northward through the night allowing for improving aviation conditions. MVFR ceilings across the northeast (including SBY) will lift over the next couple of hours, improving to VFR after 08Z. Mainly dry/VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may be possible over far western portions of the region late Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be out of the N/NW around 5 to 10 knots for much of the forecast period. Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the extended period as high pressure builds into the region. && .MARINE...
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Tropical Storm Jose will continue to lift north of the waters this morning before moving off the northeast coast later today. Jose will linger off the northeast coast through the weekend before dissipating. Swells from distant Hurricane Maria will begin to impact the waters by this weekend. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 7 AM EDT for the Bay and through Wednesday evening for the Ocean. Seas currently average 6 to 8 feet nearshore and 9 to 11 feet out 20 nm. Waves over the Bay average 2 to 4 feet with waves up to 4 to 5 feet at the mouth of the Bay. Winds over the waters generally range from 15 to 20 knots with occasional gusts up to 30 knots. Marine conditions are expected to continue to improve through this morning as weak high pressure begins to build in from the northwest. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Wednesday through Thursday for a majority of the waters except for lingering 5 ft+ seas on the coastal waters. Seas will once again ramp up Friday and into the weekend as swells from distant Hurricane Maria begin to impact the region. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be be needed for the coastal waters by this weekend.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures avg +1.75 to +2.25 ft over the lower Bay, tapered to only about +0.5 to +1.0 feet in the upper Bay. Will continue coastal flood advisories for all Bay/river zones through the upcoming high tide cycle this evening/early Wed am. Have coastal flood warnings in effect for the zones adjacent to the Atlantic ocean as water has piled up into some of the inlets and additional moderate flooding is expected through this evening`s high tide, though some areas may fall a little shy of moderate criteria as the departures are starting to fall over the past 2 hrs. Also, added a coastal flood advisory for the Bay side of the MD eastern shore from midnight through 6 am with the expectation that tidal departures will slowly creep up with as the strong northerly winds subside later tonight and water remains piled up to some extent in the Bay as waves outside of the mouth of the Bay remain elevated on Wed. Additional minor flooding will be possible later wed/Wed night, but given the uncertainty did not extend the headlines out through this period yet. High surf advisory also remains for all coastal areas into this evening due to nearshore waves of 8-11 ft. High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal waters now extended through Wed as swell/nearshore waves will be slow to subside. && .CLIMATE... Record highs for 9/20: RIC...95 in 2005 ORF...97 in 1895 SBY...90 in 1983 ECG...93 in 1942 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ024- 025. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>023. NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ102. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ089-090-093. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ095>097-523>525. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ099- 100. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ075-077-078-084>086. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ALB/MPR AVIATION...AJB MARINE...AJB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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