Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 031046 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 646 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE VICINITY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STALLED FRNTAL BNDRY ACROSS NRN NC. N OF THE FRNT OVER THE FA VSBYS ARE REDUCED TO 1-3 MILES SO MENTIONED PATCHY FOG THRU THE ERLY MORNG HRS AS WINDS ARE CALM/LIGHT AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN SOME LOCATIONS. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THIS MORNG ASIDE FM CSTL PORTIONS OF NE NC. THE DRY WX MAY CONTINUE THRU THE MIDDAY HRS...BEFORE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHES FM THE W LATE IN THE DAY...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER SW AREAS. TSTMS PSBL BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX EXPECTED WITH A MSTLY CLOUDY SKY LIMITING INSTABILITY AND TEMPS BLO NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 80S. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS APPROACH 2 IN. AREA OF PCPN ACROSS SW AREAS THIS AFTN SHIFTS NE THRU THE FA THIS EVENG AND TNGT AS THE SFC FRNTAL BNDRY STARTS SLIDING NORTHWARD. LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S UNDER A MOSTLY CLOUDY-CLOUDY SKY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UNSETTLED WX CONTINUES INTO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SFC FRNTAL BNDRY REMAINS OVER THE MID ATLC. SHRAS/TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE PSBL SAT AS AN UPR-LEVEL TROF AXIS APPROACHES FM THE W AND DEVELOPS A SFC LO THAT RIDES THE FRNT. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PCPN...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 30-50% POPS ACROSS THE FA...CONTINUING INTO SAT NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS AS THE GREATEST IMPACT. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PCPN SUN ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AREAS. QPF UP TO 1 IN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. TEMPS REMAIN SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS AVGG IN THE MID 80S AREAWIDE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION, AND WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE SE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, OUR CURRENT PATTERN OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE BY DAY, SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ARE ON MONDAY WITH QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE PINWHEELING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PER BOTH THE 12Z/02 ECMWF AND GFS. FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TOOK A DEGREE OR TWO OFF HIGH TEMPS MON-WED...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A FNTL BNDRY WILL RMN JUST S OF THE VA/NC BORDER INTO THIS AFTN. MDLS TRACK SFC LO PRES FM THE OH/TN VLYS THROUGH THE NRN MDATLC RGN FM LT TDA THROUGH SAT. THE FNTL BNDRY TO THE S (NOW) RETURNS N BEGINNING LT TNGT...CONTG INTO FRI. CONTD VRB CIGS/VSBYS (AT TIMES IFR) UNTIL ABT MID MRNG. SHRAS HAVE DEPARTED NE NC. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/PSBL TSTMS XPCD BY LT THIS AFTN...CONTG INTO SAT. A SECOND ADDITIONAL WAVE OF PCPN PSBL SAT NGT/SUN AS FNTL BNDRY SINKS S AGN...AND WK SFC LO PRES TRACKS THROUGH NC. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/DURATION OF ANY IFR CONDS LO ATTM INTO SUN (AND LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO PDS OF PCPN). && .MARINE... UNSETTLED WX CONDS CONT OVER THE WTRS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WKND. FNTL BNDRY HAS SETTLED OVR THE NC CSTL WTRS...AND RMNS THERE THIS MRNG...BEFORE PULLING BACK N LT TNGT INTO SAT. PRIMARILY NNE WNDS BECOMING ESE TDA (SPEEDS AOB 15 KT)...THOUGH VRB INVOF NE NC WTRS. THE BNDRY SINKS BACK S LT SAT INTO SUN AS WK SFC LO PRES EXITS S OF NEW ENG...RESULTING IN WINDS SWITCHING FM MNLY SSW (SAT) TO NNE (SUN). THROUGH THE WKND...CONDS RMN SUB-SCA...W/ WAVES IN THE BAY AVGG 1-2 FT AND SEAS ON THE OCN WTRS AVGG 2-4 FT...AND WIND SPEEDS MNLY AOB 15 KT. GUSTY WNDS/HVY RA WILL BE PSBL IN ANY TSTMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB

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