Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KAKQ 081703 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 103 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING BACK THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...DEEP SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH 100 BUT NOT EXPECTING TO GET MUCH HIGHER WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. A SW WIND WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD AS ANY CONVECTION FORMING IN VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY NW OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE DUE TO WEAK FORCING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 650-750 MB. POPS ARE CAPPED 20-30% FOR N AND W AREAS THIS EVENING AS SOME SHRAS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND SLUMPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WNW WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE HOT AND MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN BRINGING A 30% CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER A DEEP WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S...AND ONCE AGAIN HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH A 30-40% CHC OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUING. HIGHS SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... VERY WARM AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPR TROF WILL APPROACH AND PUSH ACRS THE AREA THU NGT INTO SAT...NUDGING ONE FRNTL BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY OFF THE CST. ANOTHER FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE REGION MON AND MON NGT. WILL HAVE 40 POPS MAINLY OVR ERN/SE AREAS THU NGT INTO FRI...THEN DIMINISHING TO 30 OR 20 POPS FRI AFTN INTO SAT. INCREASE POPS TO 30 PERCENT EVERYWHERE FOR SUN AFTN/EVENG...DUE TO HIGHER TEMPS AND A LEE TROF SETTING UP OVR THE REGION. WILL HAVE 30 POPS AGAIN FOR MON AFTN THRU MON NGT...AS FRNTL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S THRU THE PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS RANGING FM THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S. && .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GENERALLY DRY AND PLEASANT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAIR WX CUMULUS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING AND A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT. REMNANTS FROM AN MCS WILL SPLIT INTO THE TN VALLEY AND ALSO INTO CNTRL NY BY THIS EVENING...WITH WEAK ENERGY PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE RICHMOND METRO AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NW OF A LINE FROM KFVX-KRIC-KSBY BTWN 08/2200Z AND 09/0600Z. FOR WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND STALLS OUT NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER ON THU/FRI. AFTN THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED EACH AFTN WED-FRI...WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THU AND FRI NIGHTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
WILL HOIST SCA`S FOR ENTIRE MARINE AREA TODAY GIVEN THE INCRG PRS GRDNT INVOF SFC TROF OVR PIEDMONT. CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST WILL BE THE STARTING TIME FOR THE SCA`S SINCE DIFFERENT AREAS WILL SEE THE WINDS INCREASE AT DIFFERENT TIMES. MODELS SHOW A "LULL" IN WINDS (AOB 15 KTS) THIS MORNING WITH ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS INCRSG TO BTWN 15-20 THIS AFTRN AND CONTG TONIGHT. THUS...WILL BEGIN SCA HEADLINES FOR THE RIVERS / BAY AND CURRITUCK SND WITH THIS PACKAGE. CSTL WTRS A BIT DIFFERENT SINCE THE SCA HERE WILL BE MAINLY FOR SEAS STARTING THIS AFTRN ACROSS MD CSTL WTRS THEN THIS EVENING FOR REST OF THE WTRS (GIVEN SW WIND...XCPT HIGHEST SEAS 5-6 FT OUT NR 20 NM WITH 2-4 FT SEAS NEARSHORE). XPCT OFFSHORE WINDS TO BE ARND 20 KTS ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KTS PSBL. SW WINDS / SEAS FALL BLO SCA LEVELS WED. TIMING OF THE APPRCHG COLD FRONT PROBLEMATIC AS MODELS UP DIFFERENT TIMES FOR THE WIND SHIFT. LEANED TOWARD A SREF SOLN AS IT SEEMS TO BE A COMPROMISE BTWN THE NAM/GFS WITH SAID FROPA WED NIGHT THEN STALLING INVOF THE NC/VA BORDER BY 12Z THU. WINDS SHIFT TO A NW-N DIRECTION NORTH OF THE BNDRY WHILE REMAINING SW INTO THURSDAY ACROSS NC CSTL WTRS. FRNT THEN SAGS SOUTH OF ALBEMARLE SND BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK DUE TO THE S-SE SWELL ALONG WITH BUILDING NEAR SHORE WAVES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAS SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...BMD MARINE...MPR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.