Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250035 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 835 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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NORTHAMPTON COUNTY STORM SURVEY RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY REFERENCING THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT (PNSAKQ)... DROPPED NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF WATCH BOX AS THE SVR THREAT HAS SHIFTED TO THE LINE OF STORMS NOW APPRCHG THE VA/NC BORDER. EVEN THESE STORMS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN A BIT. PVS DSCN: QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR TSTRM WATCH UNTIL 03Z. MESO LOW ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY MERGING INFLOW BNDRYS AND UNTAPPED INSTABILITY. THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 00Z. BUMPED UP POPS WHERE CONVECTION IS HEADED. PVS DSCN: CURRENT MSAS SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA WITH WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NE ALONG IT. FIRST IMPULSE (WHICH PRODUCED THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION) NOW OFFSHORE WITH SCNDRY IMPULSE TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTRN AND EVENING AS BNDRY STALLS IVOF VA/NC BORDER. SHORT RANGE MODELS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SE ACROSS THE RGN THRU THE EVENING HOURS THEN TAKES MOST PCPN SOUTH INTO NC AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ADDNTL CONVECTION DVLPNG ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRYS... WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 00Z FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHC POPS GOING ACROSS SERN VA/NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BNDRY WILL BE SLOW TO DRIFT SOUTH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRYER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT NR 70 SERN BEACH AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS WASH OUT BNDRY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AS UPR TROF AXIS PUSHES EAST. TSCTNS SHOW JUST ENUF MOISTURE/INSTAB FOR SLGHT CHC POPS ACROSS NE NC CNTYS FRIDAY AFTRN. OTW...DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TMPS. HIGHS L-M80S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAA. MODELS DIFFER A BIT WRT MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SAT. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL CAP SEEN IN SNDGS...KEPT FCST DRY BUT KEPT POPS BLO 15% SAT. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO RETURN AS H85 TMPS RISE. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S. LOWS SAT NIGHT 70-75. NEXT FRNT APPRCHS FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. DRY THRU 18Z WITH CHC POPS DRNG THE AFTRN/EVENING HRS (20% SERN AREAS TO 40% NWRN CNTYS). HIGHS U80S-L90S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW DIGS INTO SERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S)...COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE TUESDAY-THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID 70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AS OF 00Z...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER RAIN. WILL LIKELY NEED TO UPDATE ECG. WITH RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND CLEARS OFF SOME OF THE LAYERED CLOUDINESS...IFR FOG IS PSBL DUE TO WET GROUND... INCLUDED AT SOME OF THE SITES. VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BRINGING A CHC FOR MAINLY AFTN TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY. NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
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&& .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. N-NE WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT...WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SW WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY. WAVES WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO AROUND 4 FT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO INCREASED S-SW FLOW. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX RADAR IS DOWN FOR PART REPLACEMENT. RADAR EXPECTED TO RETURNED TO SERVIVE ONCE WORK IS COMPLETED. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...JDM EQUIPMENT...

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