Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260714 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 214 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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AS OF 2AM EDT...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBS...HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NOW HAVE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 8-10 INCHES STRETCHING FROM EMPORIA TO SMITHFIELD AND THE LOWER ERN SHORE. THIS INCLUDES THE LOWER PENINSULA...NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH AND THE LOWER VA ERN SHORE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED THRU LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDICATED BY THE 26/00Z NAM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BANDING ACROSS THE 6-10 INCH AREA...WHICH MAY RESULT IN HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES. BASED ON FORCING AND CSI (INSTABILITY)...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRIKE OR TWO OF LIGHTNING IN THE BANDS. SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS NC AS WAA ALOFT INCREASES. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE KEEPS THE H85 0C ISOTHERM SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER...SNEAKING INTO VB BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SNOWFALL TOTALS IN NE NC...BUT BASED ON RATES AND REPORTS...HAVE INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES WITH 6-8 INCHES ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. LATEST RADAR TRENDS DEPICT A DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO WRN VA/NC...WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...THINK 4-6 INCHES RICHMOND IS STILL ON TRACK.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... BRISK NNE WINDS PERSISTS TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL LOW...AS 1040+MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VLY TOWARDS THE AREA. NUMEROUS WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN W-SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING A GENERAL MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST AND COOL PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POP CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES FOR SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM N TO S ON SATURDAY AS HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH. CLOUD COVER FOR FRI/EARLY SAT, FRESH SNOWFALL AND ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR LEAD TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A ~1040MB HIGH SITUATED OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH WAA ALOFT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO UPPER 40S S. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. AT THIS TIME 30-40% POPS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. PCPN TYPE SHOULD GENERALLY BE -RA...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BEGIN AS -SN OR IP SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NE...TO THE MID 50S SW...ALTHOUGH WARMER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLOWER. 12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE N TUESDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 30-35 RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW 40S N...TO NEAR 50 S. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATER WEDNESDAY. AGAIN MAINLY -RA IS EXPECTED...WITH A POSSIBLE MIX AT THE ONSET OVER NW PORTIONS. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SNOW HAS QUICKLY OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR SBY WHERE IT WILL START WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. VSBYS AND CIGS QUICKLY DROP INTO IFR RANGE ALONG WITH FZFG AS TMPS DROP AOB FREEZING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SERN COAST TONIGHT QUICKLY MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF SLEET THEN RAIN FIRST AT ECG THEN ORF LATER TONIGHT THEN PHF AROUND 12Z. EXPECT SBY AND RIC TO STAY ALL SNOW THRU THE EVENT. WILL WATCH A DRY SLOT CURRETLY PUNCHING NE ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY ALLOW THE HEAVIEST PCPN TO BECOME SOMEWHAT LIGHTER ACROSS SERN TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z. OTW...PCPN TAPERS OFF W-E BTWN 15-18Z AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFFSHORE. MAY EVEN SEE A BIT OF DRIZZLE / FZ DRIZZLE AT THE VERY END AS MID-LEVEL DRYING COMMENCES. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES EVEN WITH A CHANGE OVER ACROSS SERN TAF SITES. GIVEN LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A NORTH WIND...DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLRG AFTR 18Z. THUS...KEPT A 1-2K FT SC DECK AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE END OF FCST PERIOD DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT A WEDGE SCENARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS ARND THROUGH A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO APPEND `AMD NOT SKED` AT KECG DUE TO COMMS ISSUE AT KECG ASOS. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE RACES NE OVERNIGHT AND REACHES A POSITION IMMEDIATELY OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS BECOMING NE 5-10KT TONIGHT...AND QUICKLY INCREASE AND BECOME NNE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY INCREASE TO 20-25KT ACROSS THE BAY AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF THE RIVERS...WITH 25-30KT N OF CAPE CHARLES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF 30-35KT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY (BETWEEN ABOUT 09-15Z) DUE TO STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF CAPE CHARLES (INCLUDING THE SOUND). GIVEN THIS A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED REPLACING THE SCA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING SCA FLAGS WILL REMAIN AS IS. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE NE. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 5-7FT ACROSS THE NRN OCEAN ZONES...WITH 7-10FT S OF CAPE CHARLES AND HIGHEST OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...WITH 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS N OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW- LEVEL CAA WILL PERSIST AND THE WIND WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS ARE SUB-SCA. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS TIME-PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW MONDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE 1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE VERY LIKELY. AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 24TH: RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.0 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979. NORFOLK: 33.0 F (-9.4 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND TH COLDEST SINCE 1978. SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 24TH: * RICHMOND: 7.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1952 WITH 11.0" * NORFOLK: 5.9" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THE 10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1937 WITH 9.8". && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ021>025. NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ012>016-030>032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ017-102. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ060>098. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099- 100. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ048-049. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630- 631-635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632- 634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...SAM/TMG SHORT TERM...MAM LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...MPR MARINE...AJZ CLIMATE...

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