Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 260933 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA 433 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic today into tonight bringing dry and seasonal conditions. High pressure slides offshore Monday ahead of a warm front, which lifts through the region Monday night into Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches from the west Wednesday. Well above normal temperatures are expected in advance of the front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A strong upper trough and cold front are now well offshore with high pressure back over the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures have dropped into the 40s for much of the area, with mid/upper 30s over the Piedmont. Temperatures should continue to drop through sunrise as modest CAA continues. Dewpoints have dropped into the upper teens across the Piedmont, with mid 20s to low 30s closer to the coast. Surface high pressure builds across the Southeast States today. Dry and seasonal conditions are expected with highs ranging from the upper 40s over the Nrn Neck/Ern Shore to the low/mid 50s from central/S-central/SE VA to NE NC. Mostly sunny and breezy from the Nrn Neck to the Ern Shore, with the wind diminishing elsewhere, during the aftn. Min RH values drop to 18-25% W of the Bay (around 30% for the Ern Shore), but the lowest RH should occur as the wind diminishes. This combined with rainfall on the order of 0.15-0.5" from the Piedmont to the Ern Shore will minimize any fire weather concerns. Rainfall was 0.1" or less across SE VA/NE NC, but still the wind should slacken enough to limit fire weather concerns. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure builds across the Ern Carolinas into SE VA tonight. The wind will decouple and combine with a clear sky and a dry airmass resulting in rather ideal radiational cooling for much of the night, although some high clouds may arrive late. Lows will generally be in the low 30s, with some upper 20s across the N/NE, and mid 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. These values are actually around seasonal averages. Clouds increase Monday as the surface high moves offshore as WAA aloft commence and moisture begins streaming into the region from the southwest in strong zonal flow. The forecast remains dry with temperatures generally warming into the lower 60s (upper 50s far nrn counties and MD/VA Eastern Shore). A warm front is progged to lift through the region Monday night into Tuesday morning, with cloud cover thickening and lowering. Much milder Monday night with lows ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. 26/00z models are struggling with shortwave impulses in strong WSW flow aloft. Chc PoPs will be maintained later Monday night into Tuesday, highest SE. Thunder has not been included as lapse rates and instability are marginal, but any clearing or stronger energy aloft could trigger a few tstms Tuesday, especially across the coastal plain of SE VA/NE NC. Much warmer Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 60s N to the low/mid 70s SE (low 60s at the immediate coast of the Ern Shore). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc high pressure will remain anchored well off the SE coast Tuesday night into Wednesday with broad S-SW flow across the local area. Meanwhile, an upper trough digs across the Plains/Midwest with sfc low pressure making its way into lower Michigan by 00Z Thu. The low the lifts NE into/thru New England thru Wed night/Thursday with its attendant cold front sweeping thru the local area Thursday morning. Expecting an increase in PoPs across the NW counties Wed aftn (30-50%), then high chance to likely PoPs areawide Wed night (40-60%). Chc PoPs (30-50%) linger into Thursday, especially in the morning across SE areas while drying out from NW to SE thru the rest of the day. Warm Wednesday with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Behind the cold front, cooler temps are set to arrive next Thu-Sat. Highs Thursday in the 50s to low 60s. Highs Friday/Saturday in the 40s to low 50s. A quick moving system may bring another chance of pcpn on Friday. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front has pushed well offshore as of 06z with high pressure building in from the W. The sky is clearing with only some sct mid-clouds lingering along the coast. A NW wind will average 8-12kt early this morning, with gusts up to 20kt possible (especially SBY). Clear/sunny today, with the exception of SBY where sct clouds ~6kft are possible through early aftn. The wind will gradually become W by this afternoon as high pressure builds across the Southeast Conus. Wind speeds will primarily be aob 10kt, but locally stronger at SBY, 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt between about 14-22z. High pressure quickly slides offshore later tonight into Monday, followed by weak low pressure Monday night and into Tuesday. This will bring a chance of rain to the region and the next potential for sub-VFR conditions. Another cold front will approach the region from the west on Wednesday, cross the region Wednesday night, followed by high pressure Thursday. && .MARINE... Early this morning, a cold front was pushing out to sea, while high pressure was cntrd over wrn TN. NW winds 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt this morning, will diminish and become W late this morning into this aftn. SCA`s will end at 7 am over the Ches Bay, Sound and Rivers, and end at noon over the coastal waters, as winds/waves/seas diminish or subside below criteria. High pressure will build over the waters this evening, then slides offshore/out to sea for later tonight into Wed. S winds less than 15 kt expected for later tonight into Tue morning, then a little stronger SSW winds expected for Tue aftn into Wed. && .CLIMATE... Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record given continued warmth over the next week. Daily record highs are listed below for today and Sat, with the top 3 warmest February`s on record listed below that. Expecting RIC, ORF to be the 2nd warmest and ECG to be at least into the top 3 warmest. SBY looks on track to be 4th or 5th warmest. Daily Record Highs for Saturday 2/25: 2/25 ---------- RIC 83 in 1930 ORF 81 in 1930 SBY 80 in 1930 ECG 77 in 1985 Warmest February`s on record (average temps): * RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 49.9 (1890) 2) 48.5 (1976) 3) 48.1 (1884) * ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest) 1) 52.4 (1890) 2) 50.5 (1909) 3) 50.1 (1990) * SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest) 1) 46.1 (1976) 2) 45.8 (1984) 3) 45.7 (1925) * ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest) 1) 52.1 (1990) 2) 51.8 (1939) 3) 50.3 (1976) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>638. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/BMD NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...TMG CLIMATE...AKQ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.