Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 250209 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 909 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED UPON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NNE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA (KAVC TO OXB) ALONG COASTAL BOUNDARY. THANKS TO THE VERY STRONG LLJ, THESE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH VERY QUICKLY (UPWARDS OF 65-75KT). HOWEVERM NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. BEST UVM REMAINS ALONG THE COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGE AND A NARROW RIBBON OF VORTICITY...SO HAVE UPPED POP INTO LIKELY RANGE OVER THIS AREA. HAVE ORIENTED A CHC POP JUST INLAND AND SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE RIC/TRI-CITIES AREA OVER TO THE NRN NECK AND SBY. SFC FRONT TO THE WEST WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVC EASTERN VA AND ALONG THE COAST, WITH GRIDS AVGG OUT PARTLY CLOUDY OUT IN THE PIEDMONT. BUMPED UP TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S TO L60S AND BREEZY W-SW FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. FOR TUESDAY...FRONT STALLS JUST OFFSHORE AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS SWLY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE SRN PLAINS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NRN GULF. THIS LOW WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER DURING THE SHORT TERM AS IT LIFTS ALONG THE FRONT. WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CNTRL VA...WHILE THE FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF THE SE COAST. UPPER JET MOVES VERY LITTLE TUES...BUT STRENGTHENS TO 175+ KT. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SHEAR AXIS/VORT LOBE OVER THE SE ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST. POPS INCREASE LATE ALONG THE COAST TO LIKELY AS THE LOW EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES. HIGHS TUES FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S NW TO MID 60S SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY TRACKS NNE TUESDAY NIGHT REACHING A POSITION NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT BY 12Z WED. THE 24/12Z SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEMONSTRATE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO LIFT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. MID-LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION RAPIDLY INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SE PORTIONS...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S NW...TO MID 50S SW...AND GRADUALLY FALL OVERNIGHT AS IN SITU WEDGING DEVELOPS DUE TO RAIN AND A LIGHT N WIND. BY 12Z WED TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NW...TO NEAR 50 SW. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WED MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP AND FORCING REMAINS STRONG. CAA REMAINS RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL COOLING SHOULD DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER THE NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES THROUGH WED MORNING...WITH UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE/850MB LOW AND CLIMO THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SN WOULD BE ACROSS THE FAR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME A 1-2IN ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST OVER LOUISA/FLUVANNA...BORDERED BY LESS THAN 1IN. MOISTURE SHALLOWS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO PCPN SHOULD STEADILY LESSEN IN INTENSITY BEFORE ENDING LATE WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCATIONS THAT CHANGE TO SN COULD ACTUALLY SWITCH BACK OVER TO -RA AS THE INTENSITY WANES. OVERALL LIGHT SN ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NW OF THE RIC METRO AREA. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT...BEFORE A SECONDARY CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHC OF -SHRA OR -SHSN (OR A MIX THEREOF) TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED FROM W-E. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 NW...TO THE MID 30S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z/24 GFS/ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL HAVE A DRY FCST FOR THE REGION WITH CHILLY/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AT THE START...WHICH WILL MODERATE TO ARND OR NEAR NORMAL FOR SUN AND MON. COOL HI PRES WILL BLD INTO AND OVR THE AREA THU NGT AND FRI...THEN SETTLES OFF THE MID ATLC AND SE CST FOR SAT THRU MON. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S FRI...IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S SAT...IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S SUN...AND IN THE 50S MON. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FRI AND SAT MORNGS...IN THE MID 30S TO LWR 40S SUN MORNG...AND IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S MON MORNG. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS PRODUCED GUSTY S-SW WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. GUSTS HAVE REACHED AS HIGH AS 33 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES. MID-LEVEL DECK INLAND CONTINUES TO SCATTER OUT...WITH ONLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS WITH DECKS 3-4K FT AGL REMAINING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOW-MID CLOUDS LOCATED ALONG THE SE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD...POSSIBLY REACHING NE NC AND TAF SITE KECG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LEFT MENTION OUT OF 18Z TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE BUT WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AOB 10-12 KT THIS EVENING AND AOB 10 KT OVERNIGHT. CIGS MAY LOWER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST IFR VSBYS AS WELL...BUT BASED ON MIXING/DISPERSION AND SUFFICIENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...HAVE STAYED MVFR/VFR WITH THE OVERNIGHT TAFS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KECG WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE SMALLER. TRENDED CIGS DOWN AS WELL...BUT KEPT MENTION OF IFR OUT ATTM BASED ON CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUES WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT...LIFTING ALONG THE SE AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS WEDS. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN. GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. && .MARINE... SCA`S HEADLINES IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENG FOR THE CHES BAY...JAMES RIVER FM JAMES RIVER BRIDGE TO HAMPTON RDS BRIDGE...AND THE CURRITUCK SND. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE CSTL WTRS THRU LATE TNGT. S WINDS WILL DIMINISH TNGT...THEN SHIFT TO THE W THEN N LATE TNGT THRU TUE MORNG...AS WEAK COLD FRNT MOVES THRU. VERY STRONG NE TO NW WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE TUE NGT INTO WED NGT...AS LO PRES TRACKS NE JUST OFF THE E CST. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AND POSSIBLE GALES OVR THE CSTL WTRS WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .CLIMATE... UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED TODAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY (11/24). RIC 76 1979 ORF 78 1983 SBY 78 1931 ECG 77 1983 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MAS/SAM MARINE...TMG CLIMATE...

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