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223
FXUS61 KAKQ 010635
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
235 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front slowly crosses the area today triggering
scattered showers and storms across southeastern portions of the
area this afternoon into this evening. Dry conditions are
expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the
region. Rain chances return this weekend as a series of
disturbances impact the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday...

A weak/decaying cold front slowly pushes through the area this
morning, eventually making its way south of the area this
evening. CAMs continue to focus the best shower/thunderstorm
chances across northeast North Carolina (along the Albemarle
Sound) later this afternoon through this evening, with lesser
rain chances further north and west. Cannot completely rule out
a stronger thunderstorm closer to the Albemarle Sound with the
00z HREF showing ~1000 J/kg of SBCAPE (wind shear will be the
limiting factor) developing this afternoon. If a stronger storm
were to develop, strong wind gusts would be the primary threat.
Any storms that develop may also produce some locally heavy
rainfall, though flooding issues are not anticipated due to the
dry conditions over the past month.

Much of the area north of the North Carolina border likely
stays fairly dry today, outside of a chance for a scattered
shower or storm across portions of southside Hampton Roads/SE
VA (~30-40% PoPs). Skies will range from partly sunny to mostly
cloudy, with a gradual clearing trend from the NW this afternoon
into this evening. High temperatures will generally be in the
lower 80s for most locations away from the immediate coast.
Along the coast, high temperatures will range from the upper 60s
to upper 70s (coolest along the Atlantic beaches of the
Maryland Eastern Shore).

Any shower/storm activity comes to an end shortly after sunset
this evening, with dry conditions returning tonight. Lows will
range through the 50s, under a clear to partly cloudy sky.
Models and forecast soundings continue to hint at fog
development later tonight into early Thursday morning,
especially for areas along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

The cold front will be fairly weak/decaying by the time it moves
through the local area Wed into Wed evening. Latest CAMs focus
the majority of the shower/tstm chances across SE portions of
the forecast area Wed aftn into early Wed evening, with the
forecast trending drier for locations farther NNW. Total QPF
will generally be ~0.10-0.25" across SE portions of the area
(locally higher in tstms). Partly sunny to mostly cloudy with
highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Any shower/storm activity comes to an end shortly after sunset
Wed evening, with dry conditions returning for Wed night. Lows
will range through the 50s, under a clear to partly cloudy sky.
Will have to watch for the potential for areas of fog late Wed
night into Thu morning.

Dry wx expected for Thu and Fri, as upper ridge builds back over
the Eastern US then just offshore. Mostly sunny and very warm
on Thu with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland/Piedmont, and
in the mid 70s to lower 80s closer to the coast (due to a SE or
S wind). Partly to mostly sunny on Fri with highs mainly in the
mid 80s inland/Piedmont, and ranging through the 70s to around
80 near the Bay/coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

Unsettled conditions are expected for late Fri night into Tue.
A frontal boundary, along with areas of low pressure along it
will affect the region Sat into Sun night, bringing a good
chance of showers/tstms across the entire area. Clouds, rain,
and an onshore wind will keep temps cooler on Sat and Sun.
Highs on Sat will range from the mid to upper 60s NE, to the mid
to upper 70s SSW. Highs on Sun will mainly range from the upper
60s to mid 70s. Increasingly warmer Mon and Tue, but there will
be slight to small chances for mainly aftn/early evening showers
or tstms, due to the proximity of a trough. Highs will be in the
mid 70s to lower 80s Mon, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 06z TAF period. BKN/OVC
high/mid level clouds will persist early this morning. Showers
and a few storms are possible later this afternoon, mainly at
ECG, so have kept VCSH and VCTS wording (best chances for storms
from ~21z to 00z). Patchy fog may try to develop late in the
period, especially near the coast. Winds are generally starting
out SW 5-10 kt and become W and NW as a weak front drops
southward. ENE winds are likely toward the end of the period.

Outlook: Sub-VFR VSBYs are possible early Thursday morning due
to patchy fog. Latest model guidance really keys in on SE VA and
NE NC, with the 00z HREF showing a 70 to 80% for VSBYs less than
2SM early Thursday morning at ORF, PHF, and ECG and ~40% chance
at RIC and SBY. Dry/VFR conditions are then expected later
Thursday morning through Friday. There is chance for
showers/thunderstorms and potentially sub-VFR conditions from
late Friday night through Sunday with the next front.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 235 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA conditions expected through the end of the week and into
the weekend.

A weak front will cross local waters later this morning. High
pressure remains anchored well off the SE coast. Ahead of the front,
SW winds are 10-15kt with a few gusts as high as 20kt. Through the
rest of tonight and into the morning, winds will turn to the west
and diminish to 5-10kt. Winds continue to turn through the day,
becoming onshore by the afternoon. Light, onshore winds persist
through Thursday evening. A backdoor cold front drops across the
region Friday. NE winds increase to around 15kt. Remaining breezy
into Saturday as winds become more easterly.

Latest buoy obs indicate 2-4ft seas. Waves are 1-2ft. As winds
become light, seas drop back to around 2ft through Thursday.
Increased onshore winds allow for seas to increase back to 3-4ft.
Waves will be around 1ft through Thursday night, then increase to 2-
3ft late in the week and into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/TMG
LONG TERM...AJB/TMG
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AM