Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 160201
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1001 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm are
expected through the early overnight hours. A cold front crosses
the area tonight. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but
still above normal for the weekend with dry conditions. A
secondary cold front will push through Sunday night bringing in
cooler air for the start of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 745 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Scattered showers move through the region this evening.
- Rainfall amounts will be generally be 0.10" or less.
- Rain chances end from N to S early Saturday morning.
The cold front is progged to cross the FA from 02-06z/10 PM-2
AM. Rain chances will end from NNW-SSE between 2-8 AM. Observed
instability has been quite low so have removed any mention of
thunder from the weather grids.
The front will be well south of the area by sunrise Saturday.
CAA will not be that strong behind the front, and so while a
cooler night is forecast tonight, lows will range from the mid
to upper 40s north to low to mid 50s central and south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...
The front will be well south of the area to begin the day on
Saturday. A ridge of high pressure will move over the area before
quickly shifting offshore by late in the day (allowing winds to turn
back to the S). Still pleasant with highs in the upper 60s-lower 70s
inland/low-mid 60s near the coast. Strong low pressure at the sfc
and aloft tracks E from Ontario to ern Quebec Sun into Mon, sending
a second, stronger cold front across into the area Sun night into
Mon. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day ahead of the
mainly dry front. However, there may be a few light showers along of
just off the SE coast Sunday evening into early Monday as a weak
shortwave also moves offshore to our south. Highs Sun in the upper
60s-lower 70s. Cooler air will begin to fill in behind the boundary,
so low temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 30s to the
west and mid to upper 40s to the east/near the coast. Breezy/cooler
on Mon with widespread 20-25 mph gusts. Forecast highs are in the
mid to upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...
A secondary, stronger shot of CAA arrives Monday night-Tuesday
morning as the flow aloft becomes NW. Breezy (especially near the
coast) Monday night with lows in the upper 20s-30s. Tuesday looks to
be the coolest day of the period with continued breezy NW winds and
highs in the 50-55F range. Temperatures moderate into the 60s (with
continued dry wx) for Wed/Thu, as the flow aloft more zonal. Still
breezy out of the WNW on Wed. Then, rain chances increase as we head
into Friday-Friday night as a deepening low pressure system tracks
over the area from west to east. While things can change (and likely
will as it is a week away)...this looks like more of a stratiform
rain event as opposed to showers/tstms. Ensemble (GEFS/EPS) mean
precipitation amounts are 0.50-1.00" across the FA at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Friday...
VFR conditions prevail early this evening as a cold front
approaches from the NNW. Scattered showers continue across the
SE terminals and SBY and will persist through the first part of
the night (before ending from NNW-SSE later tonight as a cold
front moves S of the terminals). The rain will be on and off and
will result in short-lived VSBY restrictions at most. CIGs drop
to MVFR near the coast for a few hours around the FROPA (mainly
between 02-08z), but are expected to rise to VFR late tonight
(although MVFR CIGs may linger at ECG through 12z). SW winds
5-10 kt in the evening before becoming N overnight behind the
cold front. Winds become highly variable during the afternoon
hours of Saturday.
Outlook: Mainly dry with VFR conditions through Monday. A few
passing showers are possible over SE terminals (ORF/ECG) with a
second, stronger cold front crossing the region Sunday night.
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1000 PM EDT Friday...
A weakening cold front continues to approach from the NW this
evening, and is expected to slowly sag south through the local
waters between ~03Z/11pm and ~07Z/3am. WSW/W winds were 8-15 kt
this evening. Winds shift to the N to NNE from N to S late this
evening across the far N and overnight/early Saturday
elsewhere. Overall, the cold air advection is weak, but there
are decent pressure rises (around 5mb/6hr) in the wake of the
cold front overnight. SCAs have been expanded to include all of
the Chesapeake Bay, the Lower James River, and the Currituck
Sound. SCAs go into effect between 3-5z. N winds 15-20 kt with
gusts to 25 kt are possible for 2-4 hrs at a given location
during this timeframe. No headlines for the coastal waters,
with seas mainly 2-3 ft (potentially building to 3-4 ft for a
few hours late tonight).
Sfc high pressure will rapidly settle across the region by
midday Saturday, with winds diminishing to less than 10kt by
late morning, and 2-3 ft waves in the Bay diminishing to 1-2 ft
(or less). With the weak pressure gradient, the flow becomes
onshore at 5-10kt by later afternoon into the evening, before
veering to the SSW at 10- 15kt Saturday night into Sunday as the
next low pressure system moves from Ontario towards northern
New England. A few gusts to ~20kt are expected in the Bay into
early Sunday, but this does not look to be headline worthy at
this time. Sub-SCA conditions continue Sunday, with WSW winds
turning NNW and increasing late Sunday night/Monday morning.
Overall, this again does not look to be enough for any headlines
despite a few gusts to ~20kt. The main event will arrive late
Monday into Monday night/Tuesday as strong cold advection
commences, ensemble means show 850mb temperatures dropping to as
cold as -8C to -10C by 12Z Tuesday. Wind probs are low for gale
force gusts, but solid SCAs appear likely during this timeframe.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-
634.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633-
638.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ERI/MAM
NEAR TERM...ERI/RHR
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/RHR
MARINE...LKB/RMM/TMG