Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KAKQ 280717
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
217 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017
High pressure remains offshore tonight. A warm front lifts
through the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, with broad
southwest flow allowing temperatures to warm well above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong cold front will approach from
the west Wednesday and cross the region Wednesday night.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mid evening MSAS has the sfc high well off the coast, a sfc
trof across the mts west into the KY/TN valley along with a
quasi-stationary front along the Carolina coast. Models show
mid level moisture streaming NE across the area with adntl
moisture developing near the coast along the frontal boundary.
High res data all over the place wrt pcpn chcs overnight given
the dry air at the sfc. For this update, went with more with
what the crnt trends are showing. Expect mostly cloudy skies
overnight. Given the mid/high level cloud deck, added sprinkles
to the NWrn half of the fa over the next several hours based on
the current radar trends and a comp of the high res data.
Shifted low pop chcs toward the coast after 06z due to waa along
the coastal boundary as it is progged to lift north later tonite.
All this for only trace amounts of rainfall to at most a few
hundredths of an inch across the northern Outer Banks by 12Z.
Milder than last nite. Lows in the lwr 40s NW to lwr 50s SE.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Above normal temps and frequent chances of rain during the short
term period. Tough to time the pcpn Tue/Tue night as there will
be transient shortwaves aloft as well as WAA. PoPs are generally
20-30% daytime Tue, with a higher PoP (50-60%) Tue eveng over
northern areas as a warm front lifts north through the area.
Temps about 15-20 degrees above normal...highs in the low-mid
70s; upr 60s for the Lwr Eastern Shore. Low temps Tue night in
the upr 50s to lwr 60s.
Attention then turns Wed to a cold front approaching from the
west. Think much of the daytime period will be dry except
20-40% PoPs again for northern/western areas. With the fropa
holding off until Wed night, temps will be even warmer than
those of Tue...highs in the lwr 80s many areas. Cold front Wed
night will be as strong as the one last Sat, with SPC including
the FA in a slight risk of severe wx. One issue however will be
the timing of the front, with the best chance of tstms (Wed
eveng) being after dark. That may diminish the severe potential
however not remove the possibility entirety as deep layer shear
and forcing is quite strong. PoPs up to 70% attm.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term period begins Thursday morning with overnight
precipitation off the coast by sunrise. An intensifying surface low
over the Northeast States will move quickly to the east into
Atlantic Canada. High pressure over the Plains States Thursday
builds into the Mid Atlantic region through Saturday. A short wave
trough in the northern stream on Friday will bring an increase in
clouds and possibly a few showers to northern part of the
area...especially the northern neck and Lower Eastern Shore. A
secondary cold front moves through Friday morning. Dry weather will
prevail for the weekend. The aforementioned high pressure system
will move off the coast Sunday. The next frontal system approaches
early next week with increasing clouds and a slight chance for
High temperatures are forecast to be mostly in the 50s Thursday
through Saturday with some 40s northeast portions Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures warm into the 60s Sunday and mid 60s to lower
70s Monday. Lows are expected to be in the 30s Friday through Sunday
mornings except 20s inland areas Saturday morning. Low temperatures
Monday morning will range through the 40s.
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will move farther out to sea during today. A warm
front and its associated energy/moisture will lift into and acrs
the region later today thru tonight. This will result in sctd
showers at RIC/SBY especially, and possibly PHF/ORF. IFR cigs
will be possible at all TAF sites late tonight into Wed morning,
due to the S winds and pcpn.
Outlook...A strong cold front will approach the region from the
west on Wed, then cross the region and move off the coast Wed
evening/night. This cold front will bring showers/tstms likely
Wed evening/night. High pressure returns Thu and Thu night,
followed by a secondary, mainly dry cold front Fri.
-- Changed Discussion --Marine wx remains quiet into tonight. Sfc hi pres drifts farther
E and away from the coast through this afternoon as a warm front
lifts across the local waters. Starting out w/ light SE winds
gradually becoming S through the day while increasing just a
bit. Increasing SSW winds tonight into Wed...though w/ strong
WAA over the colder waters...the stability will limit
mixing/higher wind speeds except near the shoreline (through Wed
afternoon). A strong cold front approaches from the W Wed
afternoon...crossing the waters Wed night. CAA in the wake of
the cold front will allow for higher wind speeds to transfer
down. A short period of near gales possible w/ the initial cold
air push Wed night...wind probs attm only show potential for
gales (sustained/gusts) mainly less than 10%. Moderate-strong
SCA lingering until late morning/early afternoon Thu before
winds wane. Another SCA will likely be needed Friday and Friday
night behind a secondary cold front.
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Record high temperatures for March 1st:
RIC...80 in 1976
ORF...81 in 1918
SBY...80 in 1976
ECG...82 in 2012
Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record
given continued warmth over the next week. Shown below are the
top 3 warmest February`s on record. Expecting RIC and ORF to be
the 2nd warmest and for ECG to be at least within the top 3
warmest. SBY looks on track to be the 4th or 5th warmest.
Warmest February`s on record (average temps):
* RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest)
1) 49.9 (1890)
2) 48.5 (1976)
3) 48.1 (1884)
* ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest)
1) 52.4 (1890)
2) 50.5 (1909)
3) 50.1 (1990)
* SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest)
1) 46.1 (1976)
2) 45.8 (1984)
3) 45.7 (1925)
* ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest)
1) 52.1 (1990)
2) 51.8 (1939)
3) 50.3 (1976)
-- Changed Discussion --MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST
Thursday for ANZ650-652-654.
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