Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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320 FXUS61 KAKQ 170607 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 107 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure along the Carolina coast weakens while sliding offshore this afternoon. The local area remains in between weak low pressure along the Gulf coast and strong low pressure over Canada Monday and Tuesday. A cold front pushes through the region Tuesday night then stalls over the Carolinas on Wednesday. Low pressure moves along the front and pushes off the southeast coast Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Latest analysis indicating ~1027 mb sfc high pressure centered along the SE coast from GA to eastern NC. Aloft, a trough is moving NE through the southern/central Plains, allowing ridging to amplify a bit across the TN/OH Valley. Over the local area, skies are mainly clear with either light S winds or calm conditions in some areas. Decent radiational cooling prevails overall and temperatures range primarily from the the upper 20s to lower- mid 30s. Expect overnight lows are expected to drop off just a few more degrees to the mid/upper 20s across much of the rural interior, with low 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC and urban areas of the interior. High pressure gradually weakens/slides offshore later today as a weak trough pushes across the Great Lakes. Some upper level southern stream moisture (basically the remains of the aforementioned Plains trough) will arrive ahead of this wave, which will result in increasing mid/high clouds late this morning through the aftn and evening. The clouds will gradually thicken to OVC cigs of 6-10 k ft by late aftn or early evening. Expect light southerly flow today but with fairly shallow mixing. Temperatures will rise rapidly this morning into the upper 40s/lower 50s most areas by late morning, then steady off as the clouds filter in. Highs look to range from around 50F NW to the mid 50s SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Decreasing clouds Sunday night with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s N to the low 40s SE. High pressure remains offshore Monday as the flow aloft remains zonal. Mostly sunny early Monday and then becoming partly sunny as a dampening srn stream wave pushes into the Tennessee Valley by the aftn. Mild Monday with highs generally 55-60F. The 16/12z model consensus keeps this system suppressed well S of the local area Monday night and it quickly moves offshore Tuesday as a nrn stream wave dives across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, surface high pressure is forecast to be centered off the Southeast coast. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday with the airmass continuing to warm. Forecast lows Monday night range from the upper 30s N to mid 40s SE. Quite warm Tuesday with highs in the 60s, and even potentially close to 70F if enough sun prevails.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The extended period will begin Tuesday night/Wednesday with progressive split zonal flow continuing to prevail over the central and ern Conus. A nrn stream wave passes across New England Tuesday night, which will push a cold front through the Mid- Atlantic. Meanwhile, a srn stream wave will track across the Tennessee Valley Wednesday and off the Carolina coast Wednesday night. 16/12z ECMWF/GFS/CMC demonstrate decent agreement with this system. However, the best forcing is progged to be S of the local area, so PoPs for rain are only 20-30% across far srn VA and 30-40% for NE NC. Cooler behind the front Wednesday with highs generally 50-55F (upper 40s far NE), after morning lows in the upper 30s N to mid 40s SE. Drier air pushes in from the NW late Wednesday night into Thursday with lows Wednesday night ranging from the low 30s N to upper 30s S, followed by highs Thursday in the upper 40s N to low 50s S. The large scale trend by Friday/Saturday is for a trough over the Great Lakes and a ridge off the Southeast coast. However, model agreement is lacking on the details, specifically with respect to the location of the cold front between these two features. PoPs are trended toward or slightly above climo for the very end of the forecast period, with temperatures generally remaining above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period, though some patchy ground fog will be possible at KSBY early this morning and included MVFR vsbys there. High pressure slides offshore later today, allowing for increasing mid/high clouds that will gradually lower a bit/thicken late this aftn/ this evening. Cigs will remain VFR however and only lower to 6-9k ft this evening. Skies clear out later tonight/Mon morning. Outlook: High pressure remains near the Southeast coast Monday through Tuesday with VFR conditions prevailing along with occasional mid to high level clouds. Low pressure passes S of the region late Wednesday with high pressure building north of the region Thursday. Could see some flight restrictions across southern VA/NC Wed aftn into Thu morning.
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&& .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tonight thru Mon. High pressure will be over the SE states tonight, then moves off the coast for Sun into Mon. Expect winds mainly SW or W thru Mon with speeds 15 kt or less. A cold front will cross the waters Tue night into early Wed morning, with winds shifting to the NW at least 10-15 kt. High pressure will be to the north and low pressure will track south of the area and off the coast Wed aftn thru Thu. North then NE winds 5-15 kt. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...AJZ AVIATION...AJB/LKB MARINE...TMG

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