Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 190032 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 832 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A trough of low pressure will cross the region this evening, bringing a period of gusty winds and a chance for showers across southeast portions of the forecast area. High pressure becomes centered along the Gulf coast Tuesday through Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions prevailing locally. A cold front pushes through the mid Atlantic Wednesday night, with high pressure building north of the region Thursday and Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 810 PM EDT Monday... The latest WX analysis indicates weak sfc low pressure near the coast in SE VA/NE NC, with a trough aloft off to the NW of the FA. Radar continues to show some scattered showers from NE of Richmond through east central and SE VA, though with very dry low levels (T/Td depression greater than 30F), most of this will not reach the ground. For far SE VA and NE NC, dew pts are significantly higher with T/Td depressions 10-15F (temps upper 40s with dew pts in the mid 30s), and there have been a few obs reporting light rain. Will have PoPs of 30-50% over the SE zones through ~06Z/2am, with dry conditions elsewhere. It will also be breezy gusty N/NW winds as colder air aloft mixes down with gusts to 20-30mph inland and 30-40mph at the coast. Otherwise, look for a clearing sky overnight with lows ranging from the upper 20s NW, to the mid to upper 30s coastal SE VA/NE NC.
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&& .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Cool with a breezy W wind on Tue, under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s. Expecting wind gusts 20-25 mph, and up to 30 mph lower MD Eastern Shore. Given these winds and expected low RH tomorrow afternoon, wildfire danger will be elevated. Quiet/dry weather will prevail for Tue night through Wed night. Clear to partly cloudy Tue night with lows mainly in the mi/upper 30s to lower 40s. Wed will be the warmest day of the week, most likely ahead of a dry cold front which will move through later Wed into Wed night. Wed will also be breezy to windy with continued low RH. Wildfire danger will again be elevated. Highs will range through the 60s on Wednesday. Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows ranging through the 30s into the lower 40s. One more day of dry weather/low RH is expected on Thursday and wildfire danger will remain elevated. For details on fire weather conditions and headlines through Thursday, please see the fire weather section below. Highs will range from around 50 on the Eastern Shore to near 60 in south-central VA. Winds will be lesser on Thursday, except still breezy on the Eastern Shore, under a mostly sunny sky.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... The next low pressure system will bring a chance of rain back to the area on Friday and possibly lingering into Saturday. The ECMWF lingers rain, at least along the coast all day Saturday, while the GFS/CMC solution is more progressive. At this time, fcst will show a compromise of these solutions, with the best chances for rain from later Fri aftn through early Sat. Will have lingering chance PoPs Sat aftn through Sat eve. Highs will range through the mid to upper 50s Fri, in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sat, and range through the 50s Sun. Highs in the 50s to low 60s next Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 800 PM EDT Monday... Scattered showers will prevail across SE VA/NE NC through about 06Z, though primarily VFR conditions are expected (could see brief MVFR restrictions at ORF/ECG). Winds have already shifted to the NW at RIC/SBY, and will do so prior to 04Z/12am across the SE VA and NE NC terminals. Expect wind gusts to 20-25kt, with winds generally diminishing between 06-12Z. VFR but with gusty W winds on Tuesday. Outlook...VFR conditions will prevail Tue night through Thu, but remaining breezy with WSW on Wed, shifting to the NNW Wed night into Thursday. A chance for rain and some flight restrictions Fri-Sat.
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&& .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Winds this afternoon are generally from the N/NW at 10-15 kt. Winds have actually turned onshore across the srn waters, mainly S of Cape Charles Light and in the srn Chesapeake Bay. Seas are 2-4 ft (highest S) and waves 1-2 ft. Into this evening, the pressure gradient quickly tightens as a strong upper disturbance approaches from the W. This will allow for a strong surge of CAA this evening into tonight over all of the waters, with the potential for a period of gale-force gusts in the lower bay and offshore of VA Beach, especially between 4-9z. Gale warnings were raised for these areas, including at the mouth of the bay, from 2-11z Tue for NW winds 25-30 kt with gusts to ~35 kt. Small craft advisories have been issued for all other area waters through 17z Tue where winds quickly increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt. The gale warning will also need to be replaced w/ a SCA after it expires. Seas increase to 3-6 ft during this period, with waves in the bay also increasing to 3-5 ft given the favorable N/NW fetch. Winds diminish some for Tue aftn and then shift to the W/SW, though they may remain gusty to ~20 kt. Another period of elevated SW winds are then expected Tue evening/overnight as another upper disturbance slides through. SCAs look likely for most of the waters for this event. And then for Wed aftn, deep mixing and higher 925 mb winds could lead to continuing SCAs in the bay and especially the rivers and Currituck Sound. A dry cold front passes S through the region Wed night, with a surge of NNW winds likely with SCAs again possible. It looks more benign to end the week with high pressure ridging down from the N. Complex fcst remains for the weekend with cyclogenesis to our S over the Gulf Stream. The GFS and ECMWF show significant discrepancies though have leaned toward a ECMWF/CMC solution which delays the strongest winds until Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Dry and breezy conditions are expected through Thursday. The combination of low humidity and gusty winds will increase the possibility of any fires burning out of control. The next chance for widespread wetting rain will not come until later Friday. After coordination with the state forestry agencies and surrounding NWS neighbors, we`ll hoist an Increased Fire Danger Statement for all our counties for Tuesday, save the MD Beaches and OBX Currituck. With winds expected to be stronger on Wednesday, we will likely be close to Red Flag Warning criteria for much of our VA counties. For that reason, will hoist a Fire Wx Watch for all of our VA counties except nearest the Ches Bay. Elsewhere, expecting another IFD Statement on Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for MDZ021>024. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>090-092- 093-096-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631-635- 650-652. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-656. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-636>638- 654-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...JDM/LKB MARINE...SW FIRE WEATHER...AKQ

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