Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 281945 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 345 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY/... A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER SE VA THIS AFTERNOON..BUT WERE PUSHING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER AREA OF FLURRIES WITH SOME RAIN WAS TRYING TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE...BUT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN RATHER DRY. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES...MAINLY OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS ALSO SUPPORTED A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS OVER MD EASTERN SHORE. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH CAA AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE PRES GRAD HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. SKIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE. WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET ESPECIALLY AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO DECREASE. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR SO WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT WILL BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING AND CLEARING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE LOW 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC. HAVE DROPPED HIGH BY A DEGREE ORTWO BASED ON THE GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY PUSHING IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN. WITH THE LOW- LEVEL AIRMASS STARTING OUT SO FRY AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW LIMITED...SO THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20-30%) WITH RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE OF THAT MUCH. THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 60 OVER EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES. HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE 27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT. GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18 HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM. TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY. && .MARINE... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25 KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT- MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN. && .CLIMATE... RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29: RIC...22/1923 ORF...25/1982 SBY...18/1923 ECG...24/1982 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAO NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO SHORT TERM...AJZ/JAO LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...

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