Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220551 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 151 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will bring warm and dry conditions through the weekend. A cold front will approach from the west on Monday, and slowly push through the local area on Tuesday. High pressure builds across the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, as low pressure lingers from the Great Lakes to New England. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Current analysis continues to indicate strong sfc high pressure ~1029 mb centered along the Delmarva coast, with an upper ridge in place from FL to the Mid-Atlc states. Another pleasant evening under a mainly clear sky with thin high clouds. Current temperatures mainly range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Later tonight, with light easterly flow or calm conditions, anticipate at least patchy fog to develop, especially east of I-95, though patchy fog will be possible over south central VA as well. Lows will avg in the upper 40s to lower 50s for most locales. A few more clouds possible early with the fog, and then late in the afternoon due to the low level flow from the SE ahead of the cold front (which will be entering the OH-TN valleys late) - so may become partly sunny vs mostly sunny. Highs Sunday ranging through the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mostly clear to partly cloudy Sun night with lows mainly in the 50s. By Mon...low pressure deepens over the deep South/lower MS Valley while a strong upper ridge remains in place just off the East Coast. Still warm/mainly dry through mid aftn Mon, with increasing PoPs from W to E late. Highs in the upper 70s east to the lower-mid 70s west (where clouds thicken earlier in the day). Latest 12Z/21 GFS/NAM/ECMWF have trended faster with the overall timing of the front, now depicting the best lift/forcing for likely to categorical PoPs (60-80%) from about 06Z/Tue through 16Z/Tue. With a strong low level jet and sfc dew pts in the 60s, some isolated tstms will possible late Mon night/Tue am, mainly for SE VA/NE NC, though the faster timing (overnight and Tue am) will genly keep any severe threat limited. Some partial clearing expected Tue by late morning and aftn and have lowered PoPs quite a bit for Tue aftn from previous fcst (will keep 20-40% PoPs in for now). Still mild with highs in the 70s as cold air lags well behind off to the NW of the local area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cold front reaches the coast early Tue night and is expected to exit the coast by daybreak Wed morning. Rain will taper off from west to east with temps falling from the 60s in the evening to 45-50F inland and 50-55F closer to the coast by morning. Dewpoints also fall from the lower 50s NW to lower 60s SE in the evening to 40-45F inland and 45F to around 50F by morning. Conditions generally dry thereafter (Wed-Sat) as sfc high pressure builds back into the region Wed night through Thu night. Sfc high slides off the Mid Atlantic Coast Fri and then up off the New England Coast Fri night. Temperatures at to slightly below normal for Wed/Wed night with highs in the 60s areawide and lows in the 40s. Temps slow to rebound on Thu as upper trough swings through and more stable NW flow aloft develops over the area. Highs 60-64F. High pressure slides overhead Thu night and then temperatures slowly moderate. Lows Thu night in the 40s (around 50F beaches). Seasonal normal highs Fri in the upper 60s to around 70F. Lows Fri night in the upper 40s inland to 50-56F immediate coast. Highs Sat in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Sfc hi pres is situated immediately off the Mid-Atlantic coast attm. Winds remain light/VRB while BKN-OVC CI spreads over the region from the WSw. Another round of fog is expected into early this morning...w/ a potential for IFR/LIFR conditions...mainly at SBY/PHF/ECG. Otherwise...VFR conditions through the 06Z TAF forecast period...though w/ continue BKN- OVC CI...and a light SE wind of 4-8kt as hi pres remains off the Mid- Atlantic coast. A cold front is forecast to track through the region Mon night through Tue morning. This will bring the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions in rain and low CIGs. Mainly VFR Tue aftn/eve through Thu.
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&& .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tonight thru Mon. A large area of high pressure was cntrd right over the Mid Atlantic region late this aftn. Winds were generally E 5 to 10 kt with Waves 1 foot and Seas 2 to 3 feet. The next chance for significant weather over the waters will come later Mon thru Tue, as a strong cold front approaches fm the west and slowly crosses the waters. The pressure gradient will lead to increasing southerly flow ahead of the front later Mon thru Tue, shifting to the WNW behind the front later Tue night thru Wed. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for most or all of the area Mon night/Tue, as the pressure gradient should be strong enough for winds of 15-25 kt with higher gusts. Coastal seas will build to 5-9 ft with waves of 3-4 ft in the Bay likely. A fair amount of uncertainty remains Tue night/Wed regarding how strong the pressure gradient will be as the models tend to keep the cold air and strong winds off to our NW over the Great Lakes until Thu. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...ALB MARINE...TMG

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