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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180005
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SCALED BACK ON PRECIP
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER FOR A FEW MORE HRS...(GENLY DRY THROUGH 9
PM EXCEPT ACRS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA).

MNLY SKC...WARM BUT COMFY THIS AFTN OVR THE FA...L/M80S
INLAND...GENLY 70S CLOSER TO THE CST (DEWPTS MNLY FM THE M40S TO
L50S). SCT-BKN CU BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO FAR SW PORTIONS OF FA
ATTM...W/ SCT TSRAS ACRS SW VA. MVMNT OF THE CLDNS AND STMS IS VRY
SLO TO THE E. WILL CONT TO CARRY CHC POPS FOR THE SW 1/4TH PORTION
OF FA THROUGH THIS EVE. MDLS CONTG TO SPREAD MSTR INTO THE RGN
THROUGH THE OVRNGT HRS...BUT SUSPECT QPF COVERAGE IS OVERDONE W/O
ANY MAIN/SGFNT FORCING MECHANISM AND LOSS OF HTG. WILL HAVE 20-30%
POPS FOR MOST INLAND VA AND ACRS NE NC COUNTIES OVRNGT...WHL KPG
POPS AOB 14% NR MUCH OF THE CST THROUGH THE NGT. MOST LO TEMPS FM
THE U50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED PD OF WX FOR THE WKND INTO MON. PCPN COVERAGE (AND QPF)
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND TEND TO FAVOR AFTN AND EVE HRS (ESP SAT
AND AGN MON). KEY TO THE WX NEXT FEW DAYS IS WKNG LO PRES MOVING
SLOLY EWD THROUGH TN VLY W/ IT CONCENTRATED PCPN. OUT AHD OF THAT
SYS...SCT (AT BEST) PCPN FM ERN TN INTO WRN VA/TN (THIS AFTN). XPCG
THAT TO BE THE CASE HERE ON SAT (AND AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST)
AS MAIN AREA OF MSTR (W/ THE REMNANT LO) RMNG PRIMARILY W OF THE
FA. SFC BNDRY DRAPED OVR NC WILL RMN NRLY STNRY THROUGH SAT...THEN
BEGIN TO PULL BACK N AS A WRMFNT INTO SUN AFTN. AT THE SAME
TIME...DEEPER MSTR ARRIVES SAT NGT...CONTS INTO SUN (MDL
TSECTIONS HAVE MUCH BETTER UVM...ESP INLAND)...RESULTING IN HIGHER
POPS (THOUGH WILL STILL KP AT CHC). DISSIPATING LO PRES INVOF FA
SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO LVL FLO BECOMES SW (WRMFNT N OF THE FA) ONCE
RESULTS IN PTNTLLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CNVTN.

ONSHR WNDS CONT SAT...HI TEMPS SAT FM THE L70S AT THE CST TO ARND
80F ACRS INTR SRN VA AND INTR NE NC. LO TEMPS SAT NGT FM THE U50S
TO M60S. HI TEMPS SUN AGN FM THE L70S AT THE CST TO THE U70S/ARND
80F INLAND. HI TEMPS MON MNLY IN THE L/M80S (70S AT THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WX AND ABOVE
NORMAL HI/LO TEMPS ON AVG. FOR TUE...MID-LVL S/W TROF PUSHES
OFFSHORE ERLY IN THE DAY WITH A CHC FOR SHWRS MAINLY OVER SE AREAS.
DECREASING CLDS DURING THE AFTN WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID
80S. S/SW FLOW CONTINUES WED AND THU LEADING TO CONTINUED WARM TEMPS
(HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 80S) AND A CHC FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHWRS/TSTMS
WITH WEAK SFC TROFS OVER THE AREA. BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE FRI AS
A COLD FRNT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA. WILL CAP POPS AT 40% FOR
NOW WITH HOW FAR OUT IN TIME THIS IS ALBEIT FAIRLY GOOD
CONSISTENCY AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE FRNTAL TIMING. HI
TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPR 70S TO NEAR 80 FRI DUE TO PRECIP AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FROM THE E-SE AND LESS THAN 10 KT. A FEW SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND COULD AFFECT
CENTRL VA AND RIC AROUND MIDNIGHT. SCT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRES AND
AN UPPER LVL SYS APPROACHES FROM THE SW. CAN NOT RULE OUT CHC FOR
AN ISOLD TSTM OVERNIGHT ESP FOR RIC. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO
MVFR BY SAT DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRL VA AND BY EARLY AFTN FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THRU SAT AND SUN...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT BY LATE
SUN/EARLY MON.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK FRNT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TNGT. NORTH OF THIS
FRNT OVER THE WATERS EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW ~10 KT WITH 1-2 FT WAVES
OVER THE BAY AND 2-3 FT SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS. THE FRNT
STRUGGLES TO MOVE NORTHWARD SAT...SO EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...AND WITH A SLGTLY ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT...CUD SEE WINDS
APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO AVG 15 KT OVER THE BAY/SOUND AND 20 KT OVER
COASTAL WATERS THRU THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SE SAT NGT
INTO SUN AS THE FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING
SUB-SCA WINDS...ALTHO SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FT OVER NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND 4 FT OVER THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH IT BEING 3RD/4TH PERIOD
AND STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 4-5 FT SEAS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...MAS