Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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196 FXUS61 KAKQ 181053 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 653 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1025 MB HI PRES OFF THE CAROLINA CST WITH ~998 MB LO PRES CENTERED NR THE WRN GREAT LAKES STATES. A COLD FRNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LO WILL SLIDE THRU THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT. IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER WARM/MOIST DAY AHEAD OF THE FRNT TDA. THE UPR-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS INHIBITED CONVECTION THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...THOUGH SOME DAMPENING OF THE RIDGE IS EVIDENT AS A LO-LEVEL THERMAL TROF DEVELOPS AND WILL FORECAST CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN...UP TO LIKELY FAR NW AREAS. SOME SHRAS/TSTMS MAY CONTINUE INTO TNGT AS WELL SO MAINTAINED 20-30% POPS. OTWS...EXPECT A PRTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPR 80S...70S TO LWR 80S NR THE CST. LO TEMPS TNGT MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPR 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT. BULK SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, STRONG SFC HEATING PRE-FRONTAL SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS & T-STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH TEMPS ON TUE, WITH EXPECTATION OF INCREASING AFTN CONVECTION. HIGHS MID 80S NORTH...UPPER 80S TO NR 90 SOUTH. SFC COOL FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY BECOMING STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY. COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY, YIELDING A MUCH DRIER/MORE COMFORTABLE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE TO LOW 80S INLAND...PERHAPS A FEW MID 80S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO SHEAR AS IT TRAVERSES THE GULF STATES ON THU. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MIDDAY THU IN THU NIGHT OVER THE SE STATES IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. BASED ON THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND RATHER FLAT FLOW... BEST PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WAVE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TREND IN THE SFC LOW TRACKING THRU SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LEND THE NECESSITY FOR SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THU...THEN MAINLY SERN AREAS THU NIGHT AND FRI. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. COMFORTABLE THU/FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. WARMING SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. (HIGH TEMPS COOLER AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST THRU THE PERIOD). LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR CONDS PREVAIL OVR THE TERMINALS ATTM. ISOLD VERY LGT SHRAS INVOF KPHF/KORF INTO MID MRNG. VERY WK BACKDOOR CDFNT SETTLES OVR THE RGN BY THIS AFTN...SLOLY DISSIPATING TNGT. COMBO OF THAT BNDRY...ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FM SUN...AND DAYTIME HEATING LEAD TO PSBL SCT SHRAS/TSTMS...MNLY AFTN 18-20Z/18. HWVR...DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE LEFT OUT OF 12Z/18 TAFS. PTNTL AGAIN TNGT FOR IFR CONDS...ESP INVOF ERN SHORE (LGT ONSHORE WNDS) AND IN OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE RA FALLS TDA. ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL AGAIN TUE AS A STRONGER FRONT MOVES ACRS THE RGN IN THE AFTN/EVE. THAT FRONT EXITS THE CST TUE NGT. SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
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&& .MARINE... SFC HI PRES OFF THE SE COAST SLOLY WEAKENS THIS MRNG. LGT SSW WNDS CONTG...W/ WAVES/SEAS AOB 2 FT. WINDS BECOME VRB/ONSHORE MIDDAY/AFTN TODAY AS COMBO WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND VERY WK BACKDOOR CDFNT SETTLES IN OVER MDATLC CSTL WTRS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A HI PROB FOR SHRAS/SCT TSTMS OVR THE WATERS BY THIS AFTN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUE (WITH PSBL SHRAS/TSTMS). WINDS BECOME N-NW POST-FRONTAL TUE NIGHT. ATTM...MARGINAL PROB FOR SCA CONDS TUE NGT INTO WED DUE TO A SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR PUSHES OVR THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW...KEEPING NW WINDS BLO 15-20 KT...AND WAVES AOB 3 FT ON THE BAY...AND SEAS AOB 4 FT. SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO THE RGN FM THE W WED-THU. && .EQUIPMENT... KAKQ RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE WITH AN AZIMUTH MOTOR ISSUE. TECHNICIANS EXPECT TO REPLACE THE MOTOR MONDAY MORNING. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ALB MARINE...ALB/JDM EQUIPMENT...

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