Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160031 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 731 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracks northeast and away from the Mid Atlantic tonight. High pressure returns Saturday and slides offshore Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Current wv imagery depicts WSW flow aloft from the Gulf Coast States to the Carolina coast, with a vigorous trough pushing across the Great Lakes. High pressure has retreated to the NE, and surface low pressure is developing off the VA Capes in response to the trough approaching from the W. The current regional radar mosaic shows a band of enhanced reflectivity from NE MD/SE PA across central NJ with lighter echoes farther S over the central Delmarva. Some enhancement is expected over the Lower MD Ern Shore over the next few hours, with drier air arriving after 7 pm. PoPs remain highest over the MD Ern Shore, with a sharp cut-off into the Nrn Neck and VA Ern Shore. Thermal profiles suggest mainly snow for Dorchester and far NW Wicomico counties, with a rain/snow mix in vicinity of SBY and mainly rain closer to the coast. Generally less than 0.5" of snow accumulation is expected with up to 1" possible for nrn Dorchester County. Not enough accumulation for an advisory. However, timing of the heaviest snowfall will occur around the late aftn/eve commute so motorists should be prepared to take necessary precautions. Clearing is then expected overnight with lows ranging from the mid/upper 20s inland to around 30F at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure builds across the Southeast Conus Saturday and becomes centered in vicinity of the NC coast by Saturday night. Highs Saturday rise into the mid 40s N to the upper 40s/near 50F S with a partly sunny sky N to mostly sunny sky S. Mostly clear and seasonally cool Saturday night with lows ranging from the upper 20s/around 30F inland to the mid 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. High pressure slides offshore Sunday as a weak trough pushes across the Great Lakes. Some upper level srn stream moisture will arrive ahead of this wave, which will result in increasing clouds Sunday. Highs Sunday range from around 50F N to the mid 50s S. High pressure remains offshore Monday. A dampening srn stream wave pushes into the Tennessee Valley by Monday aftn. Decreasing clouds Sunday night with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s N to the low 40s SE. Increasing clouds and mild Monday with highs generally 55-60F. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rising 500mb heights on Monday will help afternoon temperatures approach the 60 degree mark. Moisture will also be on the increase, most prominently in the south. A compact impulse of energy moves into eastern NC Monday during the day, helping to spark a few showers, mainly across extreme south VA and northern NC. Will keep a slight chance of showers going through the overnight, followed by a lull in activity Tuesday morning. Models diverge in their solutions for Tuesday and beyond. The GFS/Canadian suggest a chance of rain Tuesday through early Wednesday, ending during the day on Wednesday...while the EURO waits to move any rain in until Wednesday afternoon, continuing through Thursday morning. Confidence is somewhat higher with the GFS/Canadian than the EURO at this time, so went with conditions drying out Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure builds back in, keeping us rain-free Thursday and Friday. In the future and beyond, moisture increases from the southwest early Saturday ahead of another approaching cold front. Temperatures will be above climate normals through Tuesday and then cool down Wednesday behind a cold front. Another warm up is expected Thursday and especially Friday with winds swinging back out of the southwest. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Precipitation is quickly exiting the MD Eastern Shore as a low pressure system tracks away from the Mid Atlantic coast. MVFR ceilings will linger at SBY for the next couple of hours before VFR conditions make a return. VFR conditions are expected at all of the other TAF sites through the forecast period as high pressure builds into the region. West/Northwest winds will shift to the southwest tomorrow afternoon with winds generally around 10 knots. Outlook: High pressure builds over the region and will allow for VFR conditions through the weekend. Weak low pressure approaches from the WSW Monday, but much of the moisture is expected to remain south of the region. A cold front approaches the area Tuesday and pushes through by Wednesday with only a minimal chance of shower Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
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&& .MARINE... The developing sfc low is now over portions of the Tidewater between Chesapeake and Virginia Beach and is moving off to the ENE. North of the low have seen a persistent E to NE flow with winds 10 to 15 kt, which were a bit more than the guidance depicted. Those winds are now beginning to turn to the North as the low is moving off the coast. Once the low gets off the coast in the next couple of hours and continues to strengthen, will see the winds turn N - NW and increase to 15 to 20 kt with higher gust to around 25 kt, especially over the coastal waters as the colder air off to the NW gets pulled off shore. Have kept headlines in place for low end SCA conditions. The winds will begin to relax by Sat afternoon as high pressure slides over the area and the cold advection ends. This will allow for a period of lighter winds and more tranquil seas of 1 - 2 ft through Sunday. By Monday the high pressure system will pull east off the coast and the flow will turn southerly, but will remain with winds in the 10 to 15 kt range with seas 2 - 3 ft. This will continue through Tuesday in Wednesday when a fresh cold front crosses the waters and once again the winds will kick up to low end sca levels. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JDM NEAR TERM...AJZ/JDM SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...AJB/BMS AVIATION...AJB MARINE...ESS

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