Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 132051 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 451 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening cold front will remain stalled across North Carolina this evening...then will push back north late tonight into Monday as a wave of low pressure moves along the boundary. Additional areas of low pressure will move along the front into Tuesday night...with high pressure finally building north of the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Latest analysis indicating a lingering and fairly weak cold front stalled across the SE coast of NC in the WSW flow aloft. A few spotty showers persist across far SE VA and NE NC, though all thunder is well S so have removed this mention from the forecast. Generally dry conditions prevail elsewhere, with enough dry air mixing down (dew pts in the lower 60s) for some sunshine across much of the Piedmont into metro Richmond. Dew pts are still in the upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast. Not much forcing for precip this evening with the front well to our south, will carry just 20-40% PoPs over mainly NE NC from 00-06Z. Later tonight, moisture slowly begins to push back N, though models are not as aggressive with this as they had been. Have PoPs ramping back up to 30-40% after 06Z, but QPF amounts will not be excessive, genly less than 0.10". Looks like a weak wedge setup on mon, at least for much of the day as the front slowly lifts N into the region. Will carry high chc to likely PoPs (highest S), with highs averaging in the mid 80s SE to around 80 F NW (potentially cooler in the far W/NW if precip remains widespread through the aftn). && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Will linger high chc to likely PoPs Mon evening, dropping to 20-40% overnight. Lows in the upper 60s to lower-mid 70s. For Tue/Wed, upper level shortwave energy moves from the Great Lakes Tue morning to off the New England coast Tue night, allowing a weak upper ridge axis to develop across the Great Lakes on Wed. Tropical system (would become Gert if were to strengthen) progged by all models (and NHC/TPC) to remain well off the coast with no impacts to the east coast other than the potential for an elevated rip current threat. Overall forcing over the local area looks minimal with a weak pressure gradient, but there will still be lingering moisture in vicinity of a weak boundary stalled across the Carolinas. The 12Z NAM is a little more aggressive at keeping moisture farther N on Tue than the 00Z GFS/ECMWF. In general, Tue looks a little more cloudy with higher precip chances than Wed and will have 40-50% chances Tue and 30-40% PoPs across the south and west with 20% to the N/NE for Wed. This will be mainly diurnal/aftn and evening showers/tstms. Skies will be partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs into the mid to upper 80s inland and 80-85 F near the coast both days with lows in the mid-upper 60s NW to lower 70s SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Frontal boundary will be well S of the area for Wed night thru Thu, as weak sfc high pressure slides acrs the area then off the coast. Will have mainly dry conditions for Wed night, then have slgt chc to chc (20-30%) Pops for Thu for mainly diurnal showers or storms over WNW counties. A cold front will then approach fm the west during Fri, then slowly crosses the region Fri night and Sat. A secondary boundary may linger over ern/sern counties Sat night and Sun. Will have 30-40% Pops for Fri and Fri night, and 15-30% Pops for Sat thru Sun. Highs will range fm the mid 80s to around 90 Thu and Fri, and in the mid to upper 80s Sat and Sun. Lows will range fm the upper 60s to mid 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CIGS have lifted to VFR (or scattered out this aftn). Potential for lowering Cigs later tonight and perhaps some patchy fog if clouds don`t fill back in across portions of VA and the MD ern shore. Best chc for MVFR/brief IFR looks to be across NE NC early Mon Morning. Unsettled conditions with periodic convection continues through Tue as a boundary remains across the region...allowing for a series of disturbances to cross the area. && .MARINE... No headlines in the short term tonight thru Tue. Late this aftn, a cold front has dropped S of the NE NC waters, while sfc high pressure was building over the ern Great Lakes. Winds were generally NNE 5 to 10 kt over the waters. That frontal boundary will lift back N into at least extrm SE VA/NE NC for very late tonight into Tue morning, then push S of the area again during Wed. Also, tropical system (which will become Gert) is fcst to remain well east of the east coast while it tracks NNE Mon thru Tue. NE winds arnd 10 or less will become E tonight, then ESE during Mon, then ENE during Tue. That system will cause Seas to build to possible 3 to 4 ft during this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Areal flood warning has been reissued through 9pm tonight for most of Wicomico and a small portion of Worcester Co. MD for areas that received 5-8" or rain over the past 24-36 hrs. Some of the area river gauges are still near cresting as of 14Z this morning. && .CLIMATE... The 6.56" that SBY recorded Sat Aug 12th ranks as the 5th highest calendar date precipitation total on record (for any date of the year). The highest is 8.90" on August 30, 1936. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...LKB MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ

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