Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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464 FXUS61 KAKQ 182136 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 536 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic Region through the weekend with temperatures gradually warming. Next cold front expected to impact the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure overhead. Other than some cirrus spilling over the mts, expect mstly clr and cool conditions, but not as cool as last night. Lows from the upr 30s wrn piedmont to the lwr 50s along the se coastal areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Sfc high pressure remains over/near the area through Fri night. Main changes in the short term periods will be in the mid-upper levels. An upper trough passes through the region Thu/Thu night, while mid level ridging flattens into W-NW flow. The end result will be scattered cirrus streaming overhead from time to time. Mid-upper level ridging re-establishes itself and amplifies over the eastern half of the U.S. Fri/Fri night. Otherwise, weather remains dry with a very slow warming trend despite temps being near normal. Highs Thu generally 70-75F and Fri in the low-mid 70s. Lows Thu/Fri nights generally 45-49F NW to 55-59F SE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sfc high pressure slides off the New England Coast Sat and continues to push ewd into early next week. Ridge axis associated with this feature will remain over the local area through most of Sun before moving offshore. Meanwhile, mid-upper level ridge axis remains centered along the East Coast from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast through at least Sun before shifting ewd/offshore. A deep upper level trough spans the length of the Mississippi River from the Upper Midwest to the Gulf Coast states Sun... becoming separated from its parent low (near wrn Hudson Bay in Canada) by Sun night. Sfc cold front linking the separated upper lows to cross the Midwest Sun/Sun night, Ohio Valley Mon/Mon night, and eventually cross the Mid Atlantic Region Tue/Tue night. Overall forecast is dry until Mon into Tue night with lingering showers possible Wed. Thunderstorms may also be possible Mon aftn based on current arrival of precip, however this could change if the upper trough digs deeper and delays onset of precip into Mon night. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal Sat-Mon night. Expect highs in the 70s. Lows will warm from the lower 50s most areas Sat night (mid- upper 50s beaches) to the lower 60s by Mon night. Highs closer to normal (69-75F) on Tue with widespread rain present. A much colder Canadian airmass moves into the area behind the cold front beginning Tue night. Decent cold air advection paired with a tight pressure gradient will likely allow dewpoints to plummet while temperatures are slower to fall/respond. Lows Tue night in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. Highs Wed around 5-10 degrees below normal with readings in the lower 60s inland and in the mid 60s far SE VA/coastal NE NC. && .AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure remains over/near the area through Fri night. An upper trough crosses the Midwest/Ohio Valley through tonight and then passes through the region Thu/Thu night...while mid level ridging flattens into W-NW flow during this timeframe. The end result will be SCT cirrus streaming overhead late tonight into Thu with the passing through, and additional SCT altocumulus or altostratus developing near far SE VA/NE NC coastal areas where ENE winds persist on Thu. Stacked high pressure holds strong Fri into the weekend. Dry weather and VFR conditions will prevail the rest of today through Sun night. Next weather system expected to impact the region Mon/Tue. && .MARINE... A large area of high pressure remains centered over the Mid Atlantic states this afternoon. The axis of the ridge stretches Farmville to just south of Wallops Island. South of this line seeing generally ne flow and north of the line the flow is more swly. But in all cases the winds are generally light, less than 10 kt. With the lighter winds, the seas are also generally a foot or less on the bay and 2-3 ft on the ocean. This strong high pressure system will remain entrenched across the region on Thursday with light winds and the benign seas. A cold front will slide across the region on Friday morning with a wind switch to the nw and increase in speed to 10-15 kt with seas also increasing to 1-2 FT on the by and 2-4 Ft on the ocean waters. However the bump up in winds will be temporary as the strong surface high reestablishes its control over the region for Saturday and Sunday with a return to benign conditions over the area waters. The next chance for significant weather over the waters does not come until early next week as a strong cold front slowly moves across the region late Monday into Tuesday. Expect an increase in sly winds ahead of the front and strong nwly winds behind the front. && .EQUIPMENT...
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The KAKQ radar is expected to be back in operation this evening.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...BMD MARINE...ESS EQUIPMENT...AKQ

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