Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 251908 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 308 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA BY THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN VA THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SWD...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS FROM CNTRL PA TO WRN NC BY DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO TEXAS WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN TONIGHT. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER FROM TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY AND DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ONLY TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MOST AREAS. TEMPS ALONG THE FAR SE VA/NE NC COASTS WILL ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 OVERNIGHT AS A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINTAINS NE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT RESIDE OVER THE AREA ON TUE... SHIFTING WWD TUE NIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL MIGRATES NWD WELL OFF THE SE COAST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INLAND WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NEAR COASTAL AREAS WHERE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF A COOL AIRMASS OVER WARMER WATERS WITH NE/ONSHORE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUE WILL BE SLIGHLY BELOW NORMAL BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS MORE LATE AUGUST SUNSHINE IS ANTICIPATED (LOW-MID 80S...UPPER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST). LOWS TUE NIGHT IN THE 60S. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS WWD SHIFT ON WED AS TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL PASSES ABOUT 350 MILES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH WED NIGHT INTO THU. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES INDICATE VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT PRESENT OVER THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE... WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP WED/WED NIGHT (ESPECIALLY SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER). THE PASSING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE FROP AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH BECOMES TILTED ACROSS FAR SE VA BACK INTO THE NC PIEDMONT. NW FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CONTACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES ONCE AGAIN DEPICT A SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER WITH WEAK LIFT...THEREFORE AM ONLY EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT AND AREAS ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER THU AFTN/EVENING. TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WED/THU WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND LOWS WED/THU NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKDOWN WED NIGHT WITH YET ANTHR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTM BUILDING SE FROM THE GT LAKES RGN THURS AND THURS NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CRISTOBAL NOW FORECAST TO MOVE N-NE AND ACCELERATE ITS FORWARD MOTION INVOF 70 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE THRU THE MID WEEK PRD. THIS TRACK WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT WRT SGNFCNT WX ACROSS FA OTHER THAN TO INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT DUE TO SWELLS ALONG THE BEACHES. NEXT TROF APPRCHS FROM THE WEST FRI. HELD ONTO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS NE NC/FAR SE VA WHERE BEST SUPPORT FOR DIURNAL PCPN PROGGED. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION FRI. THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT AND RATHER FLAT NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DIRTY UPPER RIDGE SETUP...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE MID-ATLNTC COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX AND SKIES TO CLEAR AROUND 23Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS DRY AT MID-LEVELS BUT EXPECT SCT CU (3-5K FT) TO REDEVELOP LATE TUES MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE AFTN. GUSTY NE WINDS RELAX A BIT TUES AFTN WITH GUSTS BTWN 10-15 KTS AT ORF/ECG AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE IS SLOW TO RETREAT. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES THE PERSISTENT NE PRS GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES SCA LEVEL WINDS (15-20 KTS) CONTINUE ACROSS THE CHES BAY TODAY SO HAVE ISSUED / EXTENDED THE HEADLINES ACROSS THOSE AREAS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE LWR MOST PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER TODAY...BUT CAPPED THE WINDS THERE AT 15 KTS FOR NOW AS WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THERE THIS AFTN. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH WINDS FALLING BLO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SND AFTER MIDNIGHT. NE FETCH SUGGESTS 5 FOOT SEAS PSBL THRU TUESDAY ACROSS THE WATERS...SLOWLY SUBSIDING N-S BY TUES NIGHT. SEA FORECAST PROBLEMATIC LATER THIS WEEK DUE TO THE FUTURE MOVEMENTS OF TS CRISTOBAL. DESPITE PRODUCING A CONSTANT SWELL DUE TO ITS SLOW MOVEMENT...SYSTM NOT LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE ATTM WITH LATEST MODEL GUID KEEPING THE CENTER ARND 73 DEGREES WEST AS IT TRACKS N THEN NE TOWARDS 70 DEGREES WEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...KEPT SEAS AT 4 FT OUT 20 NM FOR NOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO ADJUST UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDE LEVELS PROGGED TO COME WITHIN ONE HALF FOOT OF MINOR FLOODING OVER THE CHES BAY RGN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THESE TIDES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN LAST NIGHTS WERE...BUT BECAUSE OF THE NEW MOON PHASE ANTHR ROUND OF STATEMENTS PSBL THIS AFTN. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL AKQ BEACH AREAS. SEE WBCCFWAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099- 100. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099-100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630>632. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654- 656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...BMD LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MPR/DAP MARINE...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ

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