Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 082056 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 356 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW THEN DEEPENS OFF THE COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE POTENT UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH APPROACHING THE AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WAS PUSHING INTO THE AREAS SW OF RICHMOND...MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL VA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH 03Z AS FORCING INCREASES FROM THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 09Z. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVG 0.10" OR LESS EXCEPT ACROSS THE ERN SHORE/NRN NECK WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. P-TYPE OVER MD EASTERN SHORE IS TRICKY AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SUPPORT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT SBY WEST...HOWEVER AS EAST WINDS INCREASE WARMER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE OCEAN CHANGING MOST OF LOWER MD OVER TO RAIN OVERNIGHT. WE COULD SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIXED IN DORCHESTER CO. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT SLIDES OFFSHORE AND DEEP MOISTURE DIMINISHES. CRITICAL THICKNESSES DO FALL TO 1300 M ACROSS CENTRAL VA OVERNIGHT...BUT THE TREND IS FOR LIMITED PRECIP DURING THIS TIME WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK ACROSS CENTRAL VA. ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD LIMITED MAINLY NORTH OF RICHMOND AND NO ACCUMULATION BEYOND SOME LIGHT ACCUM ON ELEVATED SURFACES IS EXPECTED. LOWS AROUND 30 F ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TO THE MID 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FIRST S/W EXITS TO THE NE TUE WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS NERN SECTIONS WHERE HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL DAYBREAK WITH LOWER POPS AFTER DAYBREAK. APPEARS THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP TUESDAY AFTER DAYBREAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SE ACROSS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVENING. THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY (MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN)...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE TO BETWEEN 40-45 F. POPS RETURN TO LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREAS TUE AFTN/EVENING...THIS TIME COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA...ESPECIALLY BY 21Z. NOT A LONG- LIVED EVENT...BUT POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" OF SNOW EXISTS ACRS MAINLY AREAS TO THE NE OF METRO RICHMOND WHERE BETTER LIFT IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NECK AND ERN SHORE. LESSER ACCUMULATIONS <1" POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE (GENLY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION FOR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC). PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LOWS M20S WEST TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. IF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED IT WILL BE FOR THE MD AND PERHAPS THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE HELP OFF ON THE ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ONE INCH OF SOME...BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE DURING TIMES OF THE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS ON WED AS STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL...SHOULD HAVE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF TO THE NE. STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DUE TO THE COLD POOL ALOFT SO EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDS. KEPT 20% POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN AREAS THRU THE MORNING HRS. OTW...PT SUNNY AND COLD. HIGHS U30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM...
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AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN CONUS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. BAY/OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS VERY COLD AIR ALOFT (-20 TO -25 H85 TEMPS) SETTLE IN. ALTHOUGH A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ATTM...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FRI/FRI NIGHT WHICH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ARCTIC FRONT TO WORK WITH. IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE ATTM IS THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S THU- SAT...BUT THEN ONLY 20S TO MAYBE LOW 30S SUNDAY. LOWS TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...WITH SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME AS ONE...OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXITS NEWD AND A SECOND ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEYS SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS NOT AN ISSUE. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z. INITIALLY BEHIND THE COAST...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CU TO FORM. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER...SBY COULD SEE THE LOWER CLOUDS LINGER ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE EASTERLY AND KEEPS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE LONGER. OUTLOOKS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS. RIC/SBY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IMPACTS. THE CHANCES FOR IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE ARE LESS FROM THE VA TIDEWATER AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAILS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. && .MARINE...
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LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OUT TO SEA. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. STILL SEEING 4-5 FT WAVES AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HIGH SEAS OFFSHORE...SO HAVE EXTENDED SCA THERE THRU 10 PM THERE. SCA`S FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST WED MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE UNTIL THEN TO DROP BELOW 5 FT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY LATE WED AND THU...AS STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS SOME VERY COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE MARINE AREA.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER ABOVE FRANKLIN...NOTTOWAY AT SEBRELL...CASHIE AT WINDSOR. SEE FLSAKQ FOR DETAILS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE ENTIRE ATL COAST THRU THIS EVENING AS NEARSHORE WAVES REMAIN ELEVATED...AND THRU TUES MORNING FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE ATL COAST THRU THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WATERS LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH/NEAR MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND WILL ISSUE THOSE HEADLINES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS (IF NECESSARY). IT`S POSSIBLE ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR TUE MORNING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE ATL COAST.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ025. NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ099-100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JAO NEAR TERM...JAO SHORT TERM...JAO LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...ESS MARINE...JDM

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