Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 261422 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1022 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARE WELL-ENSCONCED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. STRATOCUMULUS ALONG THE SERN COASTAL AREAS OF VA/NE NC IS MUCH MORE SCATTERED TODAY AS COMPARED TO MONDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THESE LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY AND DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MONDAY AS WELL DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE THAN CLOUDS TODAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S INLAND/UPPER 70S IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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DRY UNDER M CLR TO PT CLDY SKIES TONIGHT. SOME PTCHY FOG PSBL IN AREAS AWAY FROM THE WATER AS WINDS DECOUPLE & TMPS APPRCH DP TMPS. LOWS IN THE 60S XCPT U50S NW PIEDMONT AREAS. EXTENSION OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD SHIFT WED AS CRISTOBAL ACCELERATES AS IT MOVES NE FROM ARND 33N 69W. TSCTNS DRY SO EXPECT ANTHR MSTLY SUNNY DAY. WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST ALONG WITH H85 TMPS TO 18C RESULTS IN HIGHS M-U80S INVOF WATER TO ARND 90 WEST OF THE BAY. MODELS HAVE NEXT CDFRNT APPRCHG FROM THE NW WED NIGHT. DATA SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTION WITH THIS BNDRY REMAINS NORTH OF FA WED EVE BEFORE DSPTG ACROSS NRN VA BY MIDNIGHT. XPCT PT CLDY SKIES NORTH TO M CLR SKIES SOUTH. WARMER WITH LOWS 65-70. THE WEAK CDFRNT PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY. MSTR RTHR LIMITED SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DVLPS WILL BE ISLTD...AFTR 18Z AND CONFINED TO SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (SOUTH OF I64 AND AWAY FROM THE COAST) WHERE THE BEST SPRT WILL BE. HIGHS IN THE M-U80S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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UPR LVL TROUGH EXITS NEW ENGLAND THU NGT...LEAVING A WK SFC FNTL BNDRY ACRS (SRN/SW) PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS SFC HI PRES MOVES E THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FRI INTO FRI NGT...THAT FNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH N THROUGH THE FA (AS A WARM FRONT), WNDS WILL SWING FM ESE TO MNLY S THU NGT THROUGH FRI NGT. FA IN WARM SECTOR THIS WKND...W/ HI PRES OFFSHORE AND A WEAKENING CDFNT SLOLY APPROACHING FM THE WNW. INCRSG MOISTURE AHEAD OF THAT FNT WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCRS IN POPS BY SUN...CONTG INTO MON. HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S FRI...THEN M/U80S SAT THROUGH MON. LO TEMPS FM THE 60S TO L70S THROUGH THE PD.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SFC WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT OR LESS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU TO MOVE ONSHORE BEFORE DAYBREAK ALONG THE SE VA COAST AND COULD SEE SCT/BKN CIGS BETWEEN 2500-3500 FT AT KORF/KPHF. ANY CIGS WILL LIKELY SCOUR OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE IS SLOW TO RETREAT. && .MARINE...
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UPDATE...NE WINDS AVERAGING 15-20 KT ACRS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY...10-15 KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. HAVE DROPPED ALL REMAINING SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT W/SEAS GENLY DOWN TO 4 FT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES THE PERSISTENT NE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH OVER THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THURS. THAT FRONT STALLS OVER THE WATERS BY THURS AFTN/NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WATERS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED BELOW 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH TO THE NC BORDER THROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CONSISTENTLY REMAIN BELOW 5 FT SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER BEFORE THE NEXT INCREASE IN SEAS RETURNS WED INTO THURS DUE TO SWELL FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING WELL OFF THE COAST. AFTER A PERIOD OF NNE WINDS ON WED...MOST OF THE WATERS WILL SEE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO OFFSHORE WED NIGHT. ONCE THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SLIPS OVER THE WATERS THURS...THE WIND DIRECTION BECOMES NNE THEN E INTO FRI (WITH A POSSIBLE SURGE IN SPEEDS TO LOW END SCA...ESPECIALLY NRN PORTIONS EARLY THURS MORNING).
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BMD NEAR TERM...BMD SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...JDM MARINE...LKB/JDM

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