Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 162057 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 357 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds along the Gulf coast tonight as low pressure departs to the northeast over the Canadian Maritimes. This area of high pressure then slides offshore of the Southeast coast Friday into Saturday. A weak area of low pressure moves through the Carolinas Saturday night with high pressure returning by Sunday afternoon.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Current GOES wv imagery and surface analysis depicts a strong vertically stacked system (966mb surface low) lifting newd through the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, with a cold upper trough over the Ern Conus. Weak high pressure, 1020mb is centered along the nrn Gulf coast. Cool this aftn with temperatures averaging in the low/mid 40s, with some upper 30s over the MD Ern Shore. A NW wind of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph is occurring, and is locally stronger over the Ern Shore, 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Sct- bkn sc, mainly over the NE half of the area is beginning to decay. Clouds will continue to diminish through the early evening, and the wind will diminish by sunset. The main upper trough will push offshore tonight into Friday, with a shortwave trough dropping sewd across the region within NW flow aloft late tonight into early Friday. This combined with the commencement of mid-level WAA should produce increasing mid/high clouds, but dry conditions are expected to prevail. Lows tonight are expected to range from the mid 20s to around 30. Highs Friday moderate into the upper 40s NE to the mid/upper 50s west of the Bay. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions early will become mostly sunny by aftn.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Mid-level ridging builds from the Ohio Valley Friday night into the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday. Temperatures will continue to moderate Saturday with highs rising into the upper 60s to low 70s (upper 50s/low 60s at the immediate Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore), after morning lows in the 30s. Mid/high clouds increase Saturday aftn as a srn stream system pushes into the Tennessee Valley. This system is weak, but sky cover should become mostly cloudy by Saturday night. 16/12z models continue to show a split in the pcpn pattern with some light rain moving into central VA in closer proximity to the upper system, with another area generally staying S/SE of the local area in vicinity of a coastal boundary. Continuity has been maintained for PoP with mainly a 20-30% chc for Saturday night, with QPF less than 0.1". This system ambles offshore Sunday as weak high pressure builds in from the west, with only a lingering 20% PoP for far SE VA/NE NC in the morning. Otherwise, above normal temperatures continue with decreasing clouds. Morning lows range from the mid 40s to around 50, followed by highs in the mid 60s to around 70 (locally cooler at the coast).
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A weak coastal low/trough off the Southeast Coast will continue to track ESE Sun night. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure and high amplitude ridging build into the Mid Atlantic Region from the west and will reside over the area through Wed. A clipper system passing north of the Great Lakes late Mon night into Tue night will cause the sfc high to positively tilt (or lay down) and slide ewd/offshore on Tue; upper ridging also follows this pattern change. The sfc high slowly weakens going into Wed as it slides farther SSE and located well off the Southeast Coast. Still some uncertainty going into Wed night as another clipper system passes across the Great Lakes and along the St Lawrence River Valley while low pressure deepens in the Gulf. Overall, the Mid Atlantic Region sits within a region of split flow and will remain dry for the entire long range forecast period. Temperatures will also run about 10-15 degrees above normal.
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&& .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong low pressure is lifting NE over the Canadian Maritimes this aftn as high pressure builds in from the NW. This is producing a gusty NW wind averaging 12-15kt, with gusts to 20-25kt, and locally 15-20kt with gusts near 30kt at SBY. Bkn cigs ~6kft are observed from RIC to SBY, with sct clouds ~6kft for PHF/ORF/ECG. Cigs at RIC/SBY should gradually scatter later this aftn. The wind will become light tonight as surface high pressure builds over the region, with increasing mid/high clouds well after midnight. VFR conditions area expected to prevail Friday into Saturday. Low pressure tracks off the Southeast coast Saturday night and into Sunday bringing a chance for spotty light rain, but overall conditions should be mainly VFR. High pressure returns later Sunday and into early next week. && .MARINE...
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W-nw winds have experienced a decent surge this aftn with pressure falls of 1-2mb. Bumped winds up to account for this surge and had to extend SCA for rivers until 700 PM. Otherwise, solid SCA winds are still on track to gradually diminish through this evening as sfc high pressure builds in from the west. All SCAs will come to an end shortly after midnight tonight. Winds nw aob 15kt Bay/Sound/Ern VA Rivers and 15-20kt ocean overnight into Fri morning. Seas subsiding to 2-4ft after midnight; waves 1-3ft. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through at least Sat aftn, after which a weak coastal low and upper level trough will approach the srn waters and pass primarily south of the region Sat night into Sun before being pushed farther SE by another round of high pressure settling over the waters through Tue. Winds generally sw Fri through Sat...becoming w late Sat night...turning w-nw Sun through Sun night...then becoming more n-ne Mon through Tue. Speeds will average 15kt or less Fri through Tue. Seas 2-3ft; waves 1-2ft.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633- 635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ654- 656-658.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...BMD

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