Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160830 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 430 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHEAST FLOW AND MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM MI SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KY...AND BEGINNING TO RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST DUE TO RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION BUT WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. SKIES HAVE GENLY CLEARED EXCEPT ACRS HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC WHERE BKN CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 9 AM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE SOME TROUBLE VERIFYING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS DUE TO CONTINUED MIXING (LOWS MAY END UP CLOSER TO 33-34 F IN THESE AREAS). STILL IS QUITE COLD FOR MID APRIL...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH 7 AM...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL VA AND INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ALONG THE SE COASTAL AREAS. PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE WILL BE HOW COLD TODAY`S HIGHS WILL BE EVEN WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST GUIDANCE VALUES OF THE MID-UPPER 40S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN VA SHOULD BE ABOUT AS WARM AS IT WILL GET (THIS IS AROUND 20 F BELOW AVG). HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION AS THIS MAY RIVAL RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS AT NORFOLK. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT/THU MORNING. WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE SFC HIGH BECOMING CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL TEND TO BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACRS SE VA AND NE NC OVERNIGHT SO TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING THERE (LOWS IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S)...WITH A FREEZE MORE PROBABLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE SKIES GENLY STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE TREND THAT STARTS TONIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON THU. SETUP SUPPORTS A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB WHICH WILL TEND TO TRAP ANY DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS. NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP GIVEN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE THE INVERSION...BUT DO THINK SKIES WILL END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE CWA FROM I-95 EAST. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS WELL BELOW AVG...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 F OVER THE PIEDMONT. A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM 950 TO ABOUT 800 MB WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO ALL AREAS THU NIGHT/FRI AS A COASTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) POPS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE OVERALL AIRMASS WARMS QUITE A BIT ON FRI...HAVE SIDED ON COOLER EDGE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT NE FLOW. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS FRI GENLY 55-60 F.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRI NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO FAR SE VA/NE NC DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT AND SKIRT ACROSS NRN VA ON SAT. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA (INCLUDING THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE) SAT AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE AND DISSIPATING. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW SAT NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD OCCUR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUN...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE BY SUN EVENING AS A RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE ECMWF...THEREFORE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST AND LIMITED COVERAGE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70 DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH TUE...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON MON...INCREASING CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE NIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS MORNG...AS COLD HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF PCPN WILL MOVE WELL OFF THE CST THIS MORNG...WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS MORNG...TO BECOME NE AND DIMINISH OVR MOST OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENG...AS THE HI BLDS OVR THE REGION THEN SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KT AND GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG TNGT THRU THU...AS THE HI STRENGTHENS OVR NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NE OR E FLO WILL PUSH SC DECK OF CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WED NGT THRU THU. && .MARINE...
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HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CHES BAY ZNS TIL 10 AM THIS MORNG. OTHERWISE...GALE WARNINGS WILL GRADUALLY END AT 7 AM IN THE RIVERS...AND 10 AM OR 1 PM TODAY OVR THE REMAINDER OF THE WTRS. THE GALE WARNINGS WILL BE REPLACED WITH SCA`S LATER THIS MORNG INTO EARLY THIS AFTN...AS HI PRES BLDS IN AND N WINDS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT. HI PRES SLIDES NE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TNGT INTO FRI...AS A WEAK CSTL TROF DEVELOPS OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY 4/16: RIC...45 (1929) ORF...46 (1935) SBY...45 (1935) ECG...52 (1962 & 1952) RECORD LOWS THU 4/17: RIC...31 (1949) ORF...34 (1875) SBY...26 (2008)
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>024. NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012. VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-049- 060>085-087>094. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-656-658. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ635>638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...LKB/LSA LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ

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