Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 231703 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 103 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure lingers over the Mid Atlantic today and then gradually moves offshore tonight into Tuesday. High pressure builds in from the west for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast in good shape for the midday update. Nudged pops down a bit in the south with Z/CC data showing drizzle/rain has temporarily dropped off. Series of weak perturbations/disturbances on the back side of the departing upper low will set off some additional sct showers with some iso thunder possible along and west of I-95, where some minimal/modest instability will be present, especially as we begin to get some filtered sun through breaks in the overcast this afternoon. Inherited highs today largely on track; generally in the low 60s across se portions, with mid/upper 60s back in the E VA piedmont and I-95 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The upper system gradually pushes offshore and begins to fill tonight into Tuesday. Some additional upper energy wraps around the low as it slides offshore this evening, so likely PoPs will be forecast from the Nrn Neck to the Ern Shore this evening. PoPs this evening taper off to 30-40% for central/se VA/coastal ne NC, and 20-30% from the sw Piedmont counties to interior ne NC. The chc for showers then diminishes sw-ne after midnight. Partial clearing is expected west (again, with some peeks of sun at times out west), while conditions remain mostly cloudy to overcast for the Ern Shore. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid 50s. Conditions drastically improve Tuesday with the trough weakening and pushing offshore. The sky should become partly sunny, with only lingering slight chc PoPs for showers/tstms closer to the coast. Warmer with highs ranging from the upper 70s to around 80 inland, and mid 70s closer to the coast (low 70s at the immediate coast). A broad upper level ridge builds from the Deep South into the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. 850mb temperatures rise to ~15C by Wednesday afternoon. BL mixing will reach to around 850mb and this should result in highs reaching the mid/upper 80s inland, with low/mid 80s closer to the coast, and upper 70s for the immediate Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. This will be after morning lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Forecast soundings/model cross-sections indicate rather dry conditions aloft, so expect dewpoints to mix down into the mid/upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Bermuda sfc high pressure resides over the wrn Atlantic Ocean through the long term periods as upper level ridging moves over the ne CONUS during this time. Although the ridge becomes more pronounced Fri through Sun, weak waves of energy/moisture are expected to stream across the wrn fringes of the ridge. QPF is being depicted each aftn/evening through Sat, however this appears to be overdone given lack of preferred dynamics and lack of definitive upper level features to aid lift for convective development to occur. Held onto slight chance POPs in far nw counties Thu aftn/evening and then slowly migrate them ewd Fri/Sat. Current thinking is that the end result will be high clouds streaming through the region rather than light rain showers with isolated thunder. Meanwhile, low pressure begins to develop over the Caribbean on Fri and is expected to drift twd a location off the FL/GA coast by Sun. Will maintain slight chance POPs for Sun/Sun night across Central VA due to pop-up showers developing on the mtns and also in ne NC since wraparound moisture could make it into this area during this timeframe. Overall, high temps should run around 5-7 degrees above normal Thu-Sat. Highs generally in the mid 80s (mid 70s-low 80s beaches). Low temps also running about 5 degrees above normal Thu-Sat nights. Cooler Sun in anticipation of more clouds with highs in the lower 80s inland and in the mid-upper 70s beaches. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper low pres will drop into se VA and ne NC this morng, then lift e then ne off the Mid Atlc Cst to off the NJ cst by Tue morng. At the same time, sfc low pres will linger just off the VA/NC cst into this eveng before lifting ne. This will result in area of rain or drizzle affecting the TAF sites thru much of today with IFR conditions expected all sites except SBY thru midday. Conditions will then gradually improve to VFR conditions at all sites late this aftn into this eveng, as sfc flow turns more n or nw and upr low slides offshr. OUTLOOK...With all of the moisture from previous day`s rains, if it clears out Mon night, it is conceivable that some fog could develop especially at KRIC which would have the best chance for winds becoming light. Otherwise...high pressure builds across the area for the rest of the week leading to a more late spring/early summer pattern across the region. Generally, VFR conditions would be expected unless patchy fog develops overnight. && .MARINE... Update...SCA flags extended for srn Ches Bay and Lower James River until 400 PM this aftn. The combination of a slowly relaxing pressure gradient and clearing/peaks of sun will allow 15-20kt winds with gusts to around 25 kt to mix down to the sfc through this time. Winds will finally begin to diminish as sfc high pressure builds into the region from the west. Previous discussion... This morng, sfc low pres was spinning just off the VA/NC cst. This low will slowly lift NE this morning and afternoon to just off the New England cst on Tue. Expect ne or n winds to increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt ovr the Ches Bay/Currituck Snd/all Cstl waters thru this morng. Then, winds will become n then nw and diminish later this aftn into this eveng. Seas will build to 5 to 6 ft during today...then subside to 3 to 4 ft late tngt into Tue morng. Waves will build to 2 to 4 ft in the Ches Bay thru midday...then subside to 1 to 2 ft this eveng. SCA flags in effect for Sound and all Bay zones, thru this morng or this aftn, and thru late tngt for the Cstl Wtrs. A secondary increase in wly winds may be possible late tngt into Tue morng for the mouth of the Bay and coastal waters south of Cape Charles Light, as sfc high pressure starts to build into the region fm the w. However, speeds of 10-15kt should keep the aforementioned areas (and Currituck Sound) out of SCA flags attm. Conditions finally quiet down Tue thru Fri. Winds will generally be s-sw aob 15 kt. Seas 2-3ft/waves 1-2ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632>634-638. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...AJZ LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG MARINE...BMD/TMG/JEF

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