Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 150131 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 931 PM EDT Sat Oct 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains off the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight into Sunday as a weak trough of low pressure lingers off the Carolina coast. A cold front passes through the region late Sunday night into Monday. Cool high pressure builds into the region Monday night and Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Current analysis indicating sfc high pressure well off the NE/mid-Atlc coast, with a weak sfc trough lingering along to just off the coast of NC to the Delmarva. Had clearing skies west of I-95 prior to sunset, but latest satellite imagery and obs show that the low stratus is expanding back to the west now, with the clear skies now confined to the far western reaches of the CWA. Given light winds, the time of year, and nearly saturated conditions (T/Td spreads of just a few degrees at most), low stratus and areas of fog will prevail overnight. With the clouds in place for most areas, would anticipate dense fog development being limited, but do expect fog w/ VSBYS down to 1-3SM to become common after midnight. In the far west, skies should also become BKN/OVC overnight, though the degree to which this will affect dense fog is uncertain (potential for dense fog to 1/4SM VSBY or lower seems greatest in these areas). Have also lingered a 20% PoP for measurable rain overnight near the coast and across the eastern shore. Areas of drizzle will be possible all the way west to the I-95 corridor. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s over the far W/NW, to the mid 60s SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... May start out mostly cloudy Sun...esp toward the coast...then becoming mostly sunny as low level flow becomes SSW. This will produce unseasonably warm conditions. Highs will be in the l-m80s. A cold front crosses the mountains Sun night...then continues to press ESE through the local area late Sun night into Mon morning...passing through far SE VA/NE NC late Mon morning per 14/12z model consensus. Becoming mostly cloudy over the NW half of the area after midnight Mon...while remaining partly cloudy SE. Models continue to show a narrow band of lift w/ the front...w/ the highest PoPs 40-60% across the NW portion of the area late Sun night...then shifting to the SE portion of the area Mon morning through early Mon afternoon. Lows Sun night range from the m-u50s NW...to the l-m60s SE. Clearing NW 1/2 of the FA Mon while remaining mostly cloudy SE. Highs Mon will generally be in the m-u60s (temperatures may remain steady across SE VA/NE NC...or slowly fall a few degrees due to clouds/pcpn and winds becoming a bit gusty from the NNW. Sfc hi pres pushes the cold front well E and S Mon night...then that high builds over the FA Tue. Mainly SKC and cool/dry wx w/ lows Mon night in the l-m40s...u40s at the coast...highs Tue 60-65F. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong high pressure builds into the region allowing sunny skies, cooler temperatures, dry weather through the extended period. High pressure and clear skies should allow for good radiational cooling Tuesday night, thus undercut guidance slightly. Lows will fall into the lower 40s to even upper 30s in a few outlying locations Tuesday night. Highs will be near normal on Wednesday with highs around 70 degrees. Temperatures moderate a little each day with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s by Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows remain chilly through the period with temperatures in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread IFR stratus and patchy areas of light rain/drizzle have been slow to diminish over the eastern half of the region due to persistent onshore flow. IFR to LIFR stratus is expected to continue at all of the TAF sites through the night and into Sunday morning. Areas of fog are also expected to develop overnight due to light winds and abundant moisture across the region. Drier air filters back into the area by Sunday afternoon allowing a return to VFR conditions. Outlook: A cold front approaches the region late Sunday and into Monday bringing another chance for adverse aviation conditions to the region. A drier air mass builds into the region Tuesday bringing a high probability of VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. && .MARINE...
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Winds remain under 10 kt tonight as a weak trough of low pressure dissipates near the coast. Areas of fog possible across the rivers overnight/early Sunday due to light winds. The SCA over cstl waters continues into Sun morning due to lingering 5 ft seas out 20 nm. Winds then become S/SW at 10-15 kt Sun ahead of an approaching strong cold front. The front crosses the area Sun night into Mon morning, with strong CAA behind the front leading to winds up to 15-25 kt into Mon. Have raised a SCA over the Bay for the late third and fourth periods, and may have to include the rivers and/or Sound with future updates if confidence for a SCA there increases. Seas up to 5-6 ft over cstl wtrs, but will avoid a double headline there for now. High pressure then slides into the area into Tue leading to decreasing winds/waves/seas. The high will remain over the area through the end of the week.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...AJB AVIATION...AJB/JEF MARINE...MAS

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