Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 011156 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 656 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slowly builds into the area today through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Sfc cold front will exit the northern OBX this morning taking with it the last of the remaining isold shower activity. Behind the front, winds have veered to the WNW this morning and clouds will continue to decrease from west to east. Expect a mostly sunny sky all areas by 9 am or so. Only modest CAA behind the front will result in lower max temps today but still running 5-10 degrees above normal. Highs from near 50 NW to the mid/upr 60s SE. Mainly clear and seasonably cool tonight. Lows in the 30s to around 40 coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry weather expected Fri thru Sat...as WNW flow dominates the area as CAA improves. Sfc high pressure will gradually build toward the region fm the WNW. Mainly clear thru the period. Near normal/below normal highs expected for Fri and Sat. Highs on Fri in the lower to mid 50s, and highs on Sat in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Fri ngt mainly in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Cool high pressure is expected to be centered over the Mid- Atlantic region Saturday night, before gradually sliding offshore later Sunday. A split flow pattern develops aloft, with a srn stream system tracking along the Gulf Coast States, and a nrn stream wave diving into the Great Lakes. This will result in dry conditions Saturday night, with a mostly clear sky Saturday evening, followed by increasing clouds later Saturday night, and then mostly cloudy by Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be below seasonal averages, but within -1 st dev. Forecast lows Saturday night range from the low 30s inland to the mid/upper 30s along the coast, with highs Sunday in the upper 40s to around 50. Good model agreement remains wrt Great Lakes system (deamplifying upper trough) passing by to the northwest Sunday night as the Gulf system passes to the south. 00z probabilistic models handle this system similarly, each indicating a split of the moisture north and south of the region, with even this moisture appearing a bit less impressive with the latest run. A 20-30% PoP has been maintained in the forecast for this time period. Drier conditions follow behind this system for Monday with highs in the low/mid 50s, after morning lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Thereafter, model solutions diverge a bit, but good agreement exists than a more active weather pattern is on the horizon. Models are seemingly struggling with southern stream low approaching from the Red River Valley/Texarkana area for Late Monday/Tuesday. Sfc High pressure retreats off to the Northeast during this period, as the associated sfc wave develops and approaches from the west. Models then weaken the upper trough as it lifts across the OH/TN River Valleys Tuesday, w/the sfc low crossing the area Tuesday. Despite some temporal differences, confidence in rain chances are improving for Tuesday, and nudged pop into high chance range (30-50%). Did not however, follow SuperBlend into likely pop just yet due to lack of model consistency. Either way, brief period of clearing expected behind the system for the middle of next week, w/ high pressure returning Wednesday. Yet another low pressure system approaches from the west by next weekend. Highs Tuesday should again be in the low/mid 50s, and moderating to the mid 50s to around 60 by Wednesday. Morning lows should be in the upper 30s to low 40s.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front moves offshore this morning followed by the return of high pressure today/tonight. VFR conditions will prevail through the 12Z TAF period. Outlook: High pressure builds in from the west through Friday and settles over the region Saturday and Sunday. VFR and dry conditions can be expected. There will be a chance for rain Sunday night and Monday as a weak low pressure moves from the Lower Mississippi Valley and across the Southeast States. && .MARINE...
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Latest obs reflect W-NW flow across the waters this morning, with wind speeds averaging 10-15kt. Surface Low pressure is analyzed over Western Quebec, with associated sfc cold front now oriented just offshore at 12z. SCA flags have been lowered for all but the northern Atlantic Coastal zones through noon, with seas 4-6ft gradually subsiding below SCA threshold by midday. W-NW winds at 10-15kt/15-20kt ocean continues behind the front This aftn through Friday. A modest CAA surge arrives Friday night into Saturday and this could produce low-end SCA conditions for the nrn portion of the marine area late Friday night. Winds diminish over the weekend, as Canadian sfc high pressure builds into the area from the west through the period. Potential for winds to increase once again on Monday, as low pressure develops along the se coast as high pressure rebuilds to the north.
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&& .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ650-652-654.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG LONG TERM...AJZ/MAM AVIATION...JDM MARINE...MAM

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