Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181729 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 129 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MID-MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS FEATURES A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH NOW PUSHING EAST FROM THE ON/QB BORDER TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA LATE THIS MORNING, EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, TO THE WEST A SECOND, MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OH/TN VLYS. CONTINUED DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY, WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. A COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME W-NW THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE. TEMPS WILL FALL MID-LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE. OBS UPSTREAM SHOWING DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHICH WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW GUSTS OF 25 MPH OVER THE ERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TONIGHT... MID-UPPER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST PUSHES THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS LIMITED...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER VORT AND THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES, MAINLY OVER THE N AND NE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION POPS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...CLOSEST TO THE BEST MOISTURE SOURCE. NE WINDS 5-10 KT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE SUN MORNING AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES INTO THE REGION. CA WANES SUN...BUT NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A COOL DAY SUNDAY. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...NEARLY 1 STD DEV BELOW NORMAL. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT...AS THE BL STABILIZES AND WINDS BECOME CALM-LIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 30S WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S INLAND. TEMPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL DROP ONLY INTO THE LOW-MID 40S. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY AS FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH. RESULTANT WEAK WAA AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES YIELD SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEMS DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM. THE TREND AMONGST 17/12Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS FOR THE TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NNE OFF THE COAST. POPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A 25-40% CHC OF SHOWERS TUES/WED...TAPERING TO 20% THURSDAY AS HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE/COASTAL WATERS. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW (BY WED/THU) SHOULD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NW...TO AROUND 70 SE...FOLLOWED BY MID 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT FRIDAY FOR DRY WX. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE 60S ALL AREAS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE CU DECK IS DEVELOPING ON TIME WITH SCT-BKN050 ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE SCT-BKN DECK TO LINGER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND A LITTLE INTO THE ONERNIGHT HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT CROSSED THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING AND WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WNW AT 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NW TONIGHT AND AVG AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. OUTLOOK...DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUN/MON WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FROM MIDDAY SUN ONWARD. NEXT SYSTEM TUE-WED WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. SW FLOW EARLY TUE SHIFTS TO THE NW AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT STRONG/GUSTY LATE TUE THROUGH WED. && .MARINE... SCA HEADLINES WERE RAISED OVER THE BAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS ARE STILL AROUND 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE SO SCA HEADLINES FOR COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY/TONIGHT/SUN (LINGERING INTO SUN EVENING N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND). MORE SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND WILL LAST THROUGH SUN MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT AS STRONG CAA PUSHES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. WINDS OVER THE BAY AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT SUSTAINED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT (AN OCCASIONAL GUST CLOSE TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT GALES). WINDS WILL BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ACRS THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT). WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 FT ON THE BAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN OFFSHORE BUT GENLY REMAIN CAPPED AT AROUND 4 FT NEARSHORE DUE TO OFFSHORE NW FLOW. RIVERS WILL SEE WAVES AROUND 2 FT...ALTHOUGH THE JAMES WILL LIKELY REACH 2-3 FT. HAVE HELD OFF ON SCA HEADLINES FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND UNTIL CURRENT ONES EXPIRE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR SCA CONDITIONS. THE HIGH CENTER BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUN NIGHT/MON...ALLOWING SUB- SCA CONDITIONS TO RETURN. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE TUES...ACCOMPANIED BY CAA AND MORE SCA CONDITIONS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM/SAM SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...JDM AVIATION...JAO MARINE...LKB/JAO

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